Topic: Thinking about buying more coins (Read 3642 times)

I am liquidating some of my bullion silver directly into BTC or Gox Redeem Codes.  (see my forum signature)

Love the liquidity of this stuff...

What I'm suggesting is that the price isn't go to go anywhere close to $1000, or even $50 for that matter, until this threat is significantly reduced and trust is much higher.

I am thinking of buying more coins.

This is what it involves...

Sell some shares... Wait three working days for money to be available for withdraw from trading site

Withdraw money to bank account... Wait three working days for money to be available in bank account

Move money to Bitcoin trading account... Wait three working days for money to clear

Buy some Bitcoin... umm, depends on how good a price I want to hold out for how long this stage will take

Send Bitcoins anywhere; a different trading account or the personal wallet of any bitcoin user... one hour

As for the price stability, that will come once the financial infrastructure exists, things like widely used and traded options. Once you can make easy money from pure volatility, a lot of it will be traded away.

I don't think there is any hoping required. This happens naturally because hoarders are people and they have different mindsets. Some will be happy to sell some or all of their coins when the price has increased 100%, some will wait for 1000% and some for 10000% or in some cases even 100000%. Some of them simply invest for 2 years and exit. Some will never sell but will use those coins gradually once they become more usable.

One thing is for sure, only a very small minority of users will be able to resist the temptation of not selling coins at some point while we go towards the price of $1000, for example. The distribution of coins is very likely to get better and better as time goes on. But even if this issue is reduced, it's never removed. As with any other currency, there are always big players who can affect the price. Even now someone with millions of dollars could buy a lot of coins at any time and if that person happened to be one of the so called super-hoarders, his actions could have a significant effect in the long term future.

I also think that the people who actually have the patience to keep money in bitcoins for years without worrying about the short term volatility, they are smart people. It's very unlikely that these people would suddenly just sell everything in year 2020 and crash the market, they would know better. It's the speculative types we need to worry about just like we've seen with Bitcoinica recently. But their effect will undoubtedly get smaller through time once the market cap is larger and there are more large competing speculators.

Yes, and that will be the ability to do a Stop Loss Order on Mt Gox....

For the sake of bitcoin, I sincerely hope that people holding many tens of thousand to hundreds of thousand coins cash out over the next year or so, and that they do so in a way that distributes their coins among a large number of people.  Let's get this over with.  The project isn't going to be able to move along and gain the level of trust it needs until the risk of enormous dumps is significantly reduced.

The general assumption here seems to be that if you want to sell a lot of coins, it's best to do it slowly. I'm not sure that's true. Say you hold a few hundred thousand Btc and you want to cash out. How long will that take to do in drops. I think quite a while. Either you act very patiently and carry the risk of market fluctuation, or you sell your coins at a higher volume. In the latter case, you may find yourself setting a price ceiling, which is problematic because people are investing with an expectation of further growth. If price growth gets cut off due to your selling, you may trigger a downtrend, which you don't want since you want to cash out.

So what if you decide to spread your selling out, but not evenly, rather in clumps? Every now and then, you will trigger massive turmoil in the markets, but is that a bad thing for your profits? Maybe people will just look at your huge sales, shrug and write them off as anomalies, and growth continues. You wait a while and drop another load of coins, people treat it as an act of god and the carousel keeps spinning.

Of course not.  You would crash it only at times when you think it's inevitably going to crash outside your control anyway, so you're not really adding any risk that's not already there.


But it's smart if you think that someone else (or many other someone elses) is about to do the same thing and beat you to the punch, and you'd rather make sure you're first in line to capture the profit.


One-in-the-hand, two-in-the-bush logic also applies.  Someone who has worked at a regular job all his life is unexpectedly faced with the following decision: become a millionaire today for sure, or possibly become a multi-millionaire some time much later.  Many people will readily admit they would take the first because it is definite, especially in a high-volatility environment like this.



This is what I suspected when I saw a huge wall of asks appear.  Though I don't think it would be very feasible to sell to oneself to make the price rise - one would have to clear out all the asks on the order book in the process, something that can be accomplished simply by buying the usual way without selling to oneself.

This.
(bitcointalk's ugly truth: Thising is the fastest way to herodom)

If you hold a million Bitcoins and want to get rich you will not crash the market time and time again that would be very unwise, like destroying your own wealth.

And the higher the price the less coins you will have to sell, so crashing the market and keeping the price down is stupid unless thats what you want.


Ofcourse I can imagine one of these early adopters need lots of money, they expected to get rich by now and took a huge loan they have to repay it.
Maybe he have been trying to postponed a sell for a year expecting price to be $50  and now really have to pay some bills no matter what.

Or someone trying to crash the market to create panic, by up as many as possible, than sell to himself to make the price rise.
But in that case, you can join that ride unless you panic to.

I would rather say, its not unwise to buy at this time if you can afford to lose your investment and if you do not panic as soon as the market crashes.

This is not a meaningful statement in speculation. For a speculator, the difference between not buying and selling is only where he stood before he gets the opportunity to trade.

Other than that, I think your notion is right. With the chaos we just had, pushing the price back up doesn't seem the best idea. Again, it might end the opposite way, as higher earnings for fewer people increase the speed at which funds are depleted from the market. Inflow at least doesn't look large, so unless people know something I don't, I still smell overconfidence.

America On-Line forever! Except that on AOL people would write "me too" under a block-quote of the entire previous post. The better educated AOL users would actually write "Me too."

Contrary to the rumor, no official AOL software provided the "Me too" button, that would produce an entire me-too-post using single click.

It is very interesting that seeming only the discussion forums in the English language have so many "me too"-posts with full block-quote.

Is English the preferred language of conformists? Or maybe people are who are multi-lingual are more likely to display their conformism in English, but more open to display non-conformism in the other languages?

What blue shine?

Wow, I just noticed I'm at 508 (509 including this one). Sweet
Nice I just need to donate some to get that blue shine.
How much is that btw?

That was my 500th post btw, whee. Not a bad way to cross over to the land of heroes.

i am a frequenter of messageboards... you all were using +1 and i used 'this' instead because it was what i was used to. i never post a 'this' post unless it's really emphatic anyway, so i always was like +1,000,000 or 'THIS'. sorry for diluting your meme sphere

This.

(I really dislike the "This." meme btw, but I've grown accustomed to it. Is it unique to bitcointalk? I haven't seen it elsewhere).

Some smart posts finally. I think casascius is a bit off base here, from an economic perspective Bitcoin is modeled like gold and when you look at gold and its value, you do not see utility as a major factor. Gold is valued at over $1000 per ounce and the utility value of gold is only a small part of this. Large majority of its value comes from its properties as a store of value, because it is a good balancing asset for investors and regular people value it for savings.

Believe me when I say this, theoretically there does not need to be any utility value for Bitcoin to reach a stable value of over $1000. It's a good question if Bitcoin can reach such trustworthiness and appreciation based only on its properties as a secure and convenient store of value, but it's theoretically possible.

Trying to estimate the real value of bitcoins based on utility alone is futile because it's very likely that the speculative value, or investment value, will always be significantly ahead of its utility value. It's not about short term gains in the end, it's about keeping money as bitcoins for years. As savings, as long term investment.

This is why I'm not shy in recommending the people I know to buy some bitcoins, even at $7+. If they are investing an amount they are comfortable with and really understand that's it's a risky investment, I can recommend it. Here I'm talking about long term investments of course, where the goal is to keep that money as bitcoins for many years. If the goal is something else, then I might not recommend it.

Indeed. I guess I'll repeat what I've said a number of times before: Bitcoin is a high risk investment.
I won't pretend to have any idea of just how high the risk is. I don't think it's knowable. The point is, the upside potential is tremendous but so is the risk of total loss. Therefore, as a long term investment, the sane thing to me seems to be to invest a small amount (whatever that means for you) and wait. If this thing works out, the gains will be huge, so a small investment is going to go a long way. If it just dies out, one way or another, I won't miss a small sum.

I'm talking about long timescales here. I Don't even know how long, I guess until Bitcoin is either over 1000 USD or just isn't used anymore, whichever the endgame turns out to be. Everything in between is just noise.

yeah, you are pretty much right

we beat the average, when we do, by identifying trends and trading channels

left field crap like yesterday is endemic to this market and can break any way at any time

best videogame I ever played