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Topic: Third of world economy to hit recession in 2023, IMF head warns (Read 217 times)

full member
Activity: 1050
Merit: 110
Isn't inflation cooling down and prices of all commodities going down,almost all countries now,well at least in Europe where I am have written down Russia war and are not that much impacted because of that anymore,price of basic commodities like wheat which is an important part coming from Ukraine and Russia has gone down to pre war levels I am reading and also watching on TV news,the panorama is optimistic and if we get a recession I am sure it will be a short term only.

In the long term I see the 2023 year as one for most of us to recover,we almost have completely left behind that pandemic which in all honesty where I live has increased the surface of the cemeteries in a really horrendous way and I am really glad we have left it back as it is not deadly anymore,let's hope also the economies recover,inflation cools even more and everything goes back to normality.
A survey says  74 % of the people worried about inflation
THe COVID - WAR - WInter has made the life miserable for the people - life is struggle and we keep struggling so hard but our problems are never resolved. And then comes the day we die and leave all the worries behind
legendary
Activity: 3136
Merit: 1233
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Isn't inflation cooling down and prices of all commodities going down,almost all countries now,well at least in Europe where I am have written down Russia war and are not that much impacted because of that anymore,price of basic commodities like wheat which is an important part coming from Ukraine and Russia has gone down to pre war levels I am reading and also watching on TV news,the panorama is optimistic and if we get a recession I am sure it will be a short term only.

In the long term I see the 2023 year as one for most of us to recover,we almost have completely left behind that pandemic which in all honesty where I live has increased the surface of the cemeteries in a really horrendous way and I am really glad we have left it back as it is not deadly anymore,let's hope also the economies recover,inflation cools even more and everything goes back to normality.
member
Activity: 812
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Recession is certain to occur because of what is currently happening in the world so we need to be prepared for this time so that we will not become broke to the extend that we will not be able to feed. People are losing there jobs and to live a good like is now becoming very expensive and price of food stuffs are becoming expensive too which is a sign that this year, things might become more difficult for people.
hero member
Activity: 2534
Merit: 586
Remote work can also take a lot of time and effort. 

A big plus of working remotely is that you don't have to commute to and from the office every day.  This saves a lot of time.  Also, you won't have to follow a dress code by spending money on expensive suits and ties. 

However, work is work, you need to spend your energy and attention on it.  At the same time, the more people looking for work on the Internet, the higher the competition. 

And this means that employers will reduce wages and put forward increased requirements for the qualifications of workers.
Yeah, the competition for remote jobs can be high, which may lead to lower wages and increased qualifications for workers. When large economies suffer, it can have a ripple effect on smaller economies that are heavily dependent on them, such as many African countries. This is because they often rely heavily on exports and imports with these larger economies and any negative impact on them will affect them as well. It highlights the importance of diversifying the economy in order to reduce the dependency on one specific market.

Overall, while the internet and technology have provided a lot of opportunities and tools for people to find and keep jobs during a recession, it's important to consider the potential challenges and downsides as well.
hero member
Activity: 2170
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China is just coming out of its lockdown attempts, the opposite can happen is a story today I have also seen a warning about.   Despite the best attempts of many western governments to restrict the circulation of excess money printed in prior years, there has been little quantitative tightening actually done just these rate rises which is something else.  The longer term picture still contains excessive currency, if China is back to its full use and production it will raise many commodity markets and in turn we are less likely to see a lull in demand within markets.

Quote
“bushfire” of expected Covid infections

I agree thats likely but what % of those cases are serious life threatening is going to be quite low, though it might be callous to say perhaps as any deaths are serious it should not be enough vs a working population to be restrictive to the economy or economic productivity.  Whereas a lockdown situation done in a blanket way for years now has been excessive in its effects.
Lockdown or not this is concerning news from China, as one of the superpowers in this planet right now it's a surprise they are experiencing such severe economic struggles. Although in retrospect, this is no surprise considering that along with the lockdowns, they are also experiencing massive issues with their housing market caused by their biggest real estate tycoon defaulting on loans he took to make residential buildings AFAIK. We just need to sit back and observe if whether these issues will be solved when everyone from China start going back to their offices.
legendary
Activity: 2338
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With the internet making communications and data more accessible and abundant with technology like blockchain based open ledgers.
Recession will still hurt but I certainly believe the internet will help. People in countries like America that have a strong labour market are already looking for more jobs. This will help. It is easier to have side hustles with the help of the internet these days. So people can have 2-4 jobs that won't be as stressful as it used to because it can be a remote job. Even if it's not a remote job, it's easier to find jobs online.

When the big economies suffer, economies in Africa suffer the most. This is because they are so reliant on the big economies. The import almost everything from them, so every negative that affects those big economies also affects them and that's a problem.

Remote work can also take a lot of time and effort. 

A big plus of working remotely is that you don't have to commute to and from the office every day.  This saves a lot of time.  Also, you won't have to follow a dress code by spending money on expensive suits and ties. 

However, work is work, you need to spend your energy and attention on it.  At the same time, the more people looking for work on the Internet, the higher the competition. 

And this means that employers will reduce wages and put forward increased requirements for the qualifications of workers.
legendary
Activity: 1232
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China will not be feeling the effects of the lockdowns until a couple of years. Think about it we are now feeling the effects of the pandemic because we have recovered and tried to get back to normal but a lot of companies got hit hard by the pandemic and are trying to recover their losses now they are fully open. The problem is that customers lost their money too and are struggling which reduces the spending which the struggling companies were relying on. A third of the world economy is already struggling but in a couple of years the entire world will be struggling with the aftermaths of the pandemic with russia and ukraine struggling from the war too on top of the pandemic issues.
legendary
Activity: 2688
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Could we witness a decoupling of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economies? Where some select BRICS nations continue to do well economically, while others trend in the opposite direction?

Reading between the lines, it seems that many nations of the world are taking steps to insulate their native economies from asset and financial contagion. As well as protect themselves against other negative trends associated with declines of the world's largest consumer (USA) and export (china) markets. Although I haven't seen it officially announced, it seems that gold is being bought up in record volumes by major nations of the world who plan to use it as a stablecoin to protect trade against inflation.

Is it fair to say modern day economies have more tools at their disposal to insulate and protect their economy from recession, in contrast to those of previous eras? While fossil fuels and global trade have made modern economies more flexible with larger margins for error? With the internet making communications and data more accessible and abundant with technology like blockchain based open ledgers.

All of which might mean future recessions won't be as bad as they would have had they occurred a century or two in the past.

On average you get a correction every 2-3 years and a recession every 8 years, so it's something that should be expected. Each one comes in a different form and has different triggers, Covid was a rather unique case that popped up out of nowhere and it looks like inflation will play a large part in the next one. It's foolish to try and stop them, as they are a natural remedy to over excess that is common in years where the economy is booming. Even with the financial crisis, it could have been much worse if not for the swift (if not late) intervening by central banks to stop too much contagion. It feels a bit like China is in dangerous territory right now, so you have to wonder if they'll eventually stumble a bit economically speaking.
hero member
Activity: 2170
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Reccession news in my cuntry is all over the place. Sounds danger actually since we not fully recovered yet finding job is very hard and the wage seem not inrese very much. I hope this year is final year and we come back stronger

The biggest market declines come before the recession.

The recession may come but it will probably be a boring period where the economy slows down, but prices don't decline anymore. The greatest decline comes in the time where people panic and try to desperately save what they can by letting staff go and getting rid of their more risky investments, which leads to recession.

This slowing and numbness could be observed in bitcoin too where the Terra Luna crash created a much bigger sell off in crypto than FTX despite FTX being a much bigger and more important event with much more money being lost and more people affected.

I don't expect big losses in bitcoin's future.
full member
Activity: 1092
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Or may be BRICS will have to be more stronger than ever before because they will need to be supportive towards each other. Idk, maybe that is why the partnership was made in the first place so that they can help in the time such as this. Also I would not mention them as third world economies, as some of them are really doing great and being competing the developed nations. In fact they are better in handling the recession situation or any other worst situation as compared to the developed nations.
sr. member
Activity: 616
Merit: 217
IMF is always wanting to warn nations about economic recession, nations are still struggling to come out of COVID-19 hit,  I believe the economic hit has already happened, because the inflations are here already, the effect of the war between Russia and Ukraine is here already, counties are complaining already.

But I believe the new year poses a new trajectory, nations have been able to sustain economic crisis in last couple of years, so I believe nations will surmount all the  hiccups as against IMF predictions.
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 302
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initially this recession was only limited to speculation,, but it seems that the issue of this recession has become a reality, especially the statement from the IMF, which is increasingly making people panic and withdrawing their assets from the stock market, and this will create a domino effect and make the recession itself come faster
This recession has been planned by global elites. This is not a natural recession, but it has been planned when it will happen and when.

the world is made afraid that the country will be in IMF debt. After the crisis, the IMF began to carry out actions to spread the USD so that the USD had a strong demand and could dominate the world.
The function of the IMF, World Bank and Petro dollar is to spread the USD so that the USD has a strong demand.
hero member
Activity: 3164
Merit: 660
Live with peace and enjoy life!
Recession is fine, as long as there is no inflation, recession means we are recovering. Think of it as if you are sick and got a fever, but now you are taking medicine which makes you sweat a lot more. Normally in a healthy person that much sweat is not nice, you would consider that is a bad thing, but in this case a sick person would know it's there to drop their fever by sweating.

This is the same, it is a distasteful thing to have recession, we would prefer not to have it, but if fixes all the inflation issues and goes away in a year then it's good. Remember that period between 2008 crisis and 2011? We went from trouble to nice slowly, it could be that slow again.
Hopefully that would be the next goal, to recover from a temporary economic decline brought about by inflation matters. But this would mean another long process to take and it could mean a year or two, hopefully. So maybe the best thing to do for now is to prepare ourselves more so we can combat if there are possible next recessions that will happen.
legendary
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The BRICS countries ...(Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have so much political problems...that it will be highly unlikely that they will be able to decouple from the global economy. These countries have one thing in common..... they all have leaders that only serve their own interest... and not the interest of their civilians.  Roll Eyes

Global markets have a way to adapt and to overcome challenges and changes in their economy.... just look at the shifting of trades, during all those trade restrictions and sanctions and how that was bypassed.  Roll Eyes
legendary
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The BRICS economies may begin to decouple, with some nations continuing to do well economically while others may trend in the other way. There are a variety of economic and political variables that may affect the performance of each member of the BRICS group, and these factors may or may not coincide with those of the other members of the group.

Many countries have, in fact, taken precautions to shield their economies from external influences and prevent a financial crisis from spreading. Some examples of this strategy include expanding into new export markets, bolstering local businesses, and amassing a larger gold or other stable asset reserves.

More resources are available to contemporary economies to help them weather a downturn. The increasing adaptability and interconnectedness made possible by international commerce and the internet, as well as the use of technologies like blockchain, may soften the blow of economic downturns.

However, although contemporary economies may be more resistant to recession, they may be more susceptible to economic shocks produced by pandemics or other global crises. The use of gold or other stable assets as a store of value is not a novel idea and has been used by numerous governments in the past.

It is true that contemporary economies have more instruments at their disposal to shield themselves from recession, and a decoupling of the BRICS economies is feasible; nevertheless, it is also vital to recognize the other variables that may impact the economy.
newbie
Activity: 51
Merit: 0
covid, a lot business dying, add some war on top of it.
doesn't need warning. it already happen in most country
sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 321
With the internet making communications and data more accessible and abundant with technology like blockchain based open ledgers.
Recession will still hurt but I certainly believe the internet will help. People in countries like America that have a strong labour market are already looking for more jobs. This will help. It is easier to have side hustles with the help of the internet these days. So people can have 2-4 jobs that won't be as stressful as it used to because it can be a remote job. Even if it's not a remote job, it's easier to find jobs online.

When the big economies suffer, economies in Africa suffer the most. This is because they are so reliant on the big economies. The import almost everything from them, so every negative that affects those big economies also affects them and that's a problem.
copper member
Activity: 2128
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Reccession news in my cuntry is all over the place. Sounds danger actually since we not fully recovered yet finding job is very hard and the wage seem not inrese very much. I hope this year is final year and we come back stronger
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 1514
Recession is fine, as long as there is no inflation, recession means we are recovering. Think of it as if you are sick and got a fever, but now you are taking medicine which makes you sweat a lot more. Normally in a healthy person that much sweat is not nice, you would consider that is a bad thing, but in this case a sick person would know it's there to drop their fever by sweating.

This is the same, it is a distasteful thing to have recession, we would prefer not to have it, but if fixes all the inflation issues and goes away in a year then it's good. Remember that period between 2008 crisis and 2011? We went from trouble to nice slowly, it could be that slow again.

The recession doesn't hit hard in particular if you're able to keep your job, but even then, wage increases begin to slow down and people effectively get pay cuts. Post COVID/war related inflation means that wage growth won't keep up with inflation.

Inflation isn't necessarily fixed by a recession so you could theoretically end a recession with higher inflation than you began with if the government acts irresponsibly. I don't anticipate that happening here because the current recession is mainly caused by the interest rates being increased to get inflation under control in the first place. Recession didn't have to happen.
full member
Activity: 2128
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Third world economy will probably suffer more compare to other big countries, if those countries still not doing anything to address these issues then in time, they might enter into another recession. In my country, we are starting to feel the effect of higher inflation, and the shortage of supplies, hopefully we will not end on a situation like this because many people will surely suffer, bigger countries should also help other country to lessen their burden especially to the supply chain.
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