but if you ask me what the majority of Bitcoin business is today, I'm still going to say drugs, porn and gambling.
1) Evidence? SatoshiDICE transaction may consume 50%+ of the blockchain, but the
value transferred is quite small, certainly nowhere near 50%. The few Silk Road studies attempted were full of easily disproven hand-waving, and the media reports written based on those studies even more inaccurate. The revised version of Adi Shamir's paper even seems to contradict this.
1. So what's the measure? # of transactions or value transferred?
SatoshiDICE exceeds 50% of block chain transactions currently, but transaction count is not relevant to any economist. Consider, you can have 100,000 SD gamblers each betting 0.01 BTC daily, and nobody would claim that such gambling represents a large part of the
economy. Large transaction count just reflects on a poorly designed solution that spams the block chain with "dust spam" for each losing SD bet.
The number of bitcoins sent in the past 24 hours is 1,162,027 BTC (bitcoinwatch.com), including change.
The average daily SatoshiDICE BTC-in is less than 8,000 BTC (dooglus). Double that for conservative BTC-out.
Maybe it's no longer the case that these types of exchanges make up the majority of Bitcoin transactions and/or value exchanges. If you've got evidence that there has been a significant shift in market distribution, I'm all ears. For the time being, it's my best educated guess based on all the available information. I'd love to be able cite some proof to the contrary.
You have dodged the question.
On what evidence?If you are making the claim "the majority of bitcoin business is drugs, porn and gambling" the burden of proof is on you. Lacking actual evidence, it is inadvisable and bad PR to make claims based solely on anecdotes.
Nothing personal. I asked the same question when people went around claiming that "speculation is the majority of bitcoin usage." Absent
evidence, it is just a pleasant fiction that sounds good to you.
2) Every recent reply seems to be dancing around this, so, to be clear, did you say "child porn" or just "porn"?
2. I said what I said I said.
If you did not say CP, then I retract the ad hominem attack, and stand corrected on that point.