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Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 34. (Read 62123 times)

legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.
Just look at the charts - as long as there are swings like this, 0.2%/day interest is pocket change. Also consider that other exchanges charge more for a single trade (often from both sides), not just per day. If you trade one single time less you already have saved the swap fees...
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
more and more people are realizing 10% interest a month on bitfinex will almost certainly make more than long term btc holding.

At 10%/month (what I've been making at finex), btc would have to be 6000 in 2 years.

In Bitcoin there's no counter party risk though.

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.

Because theyre gamblers and they believe the pump
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
more and more people are realizing 10% interest a month on bitfinex will almost certainly make more than long term btc holding.

At 10%/month (what I've been making at finex), btc would have to be 6000 in 2 years.

In Bitcoin there's no counter party risk though.

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
In order for this data to have any meaning, you would need to know just how leveraged traders that take out these swaps are, if they are only leveraged 1.001 to 1 then they could simply close a small portion of their holdings with little impact on the market if they cannot borrow at reasonable terms. 

Total swap of 29M alone shows many are quite bullish at bitcoin and willing to borrow at high rate to own bitcoin.
You can see the overall tone of the market to be bullish, but you cannot see how leveraged borrowers are. If bullish borrowers are lightly leveraged but bearish borrowers are heavily leveraged then it would take less overall for the price to move higher as the bearish traders would have less "wiggle room" before they are forced to close their position.
full member
Activity: 343
Merit: 100
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
In order for this data to have any meaning, you would need to know just how leveraged traders that take out these swaps are, if they are only leveraged 1.001 to 1 then they could simply close a small portion of their holdings with little impact on the market if they cannot borrow at reasonable terms. 

Total swap of 29M alone shows many are quite bullish at bitcoin and willing to borrow at high rate to own bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
In order for this data to have any meaning, you would need to know just how leveraged traders that take out these swaps are, if they are only leveraged 1.001 to 1 then they could simply close a small portion of their holdings with little impact on the market if they cannot borrow at reasonable terms. 
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
As the swaps mature the other party to the swaps will likely want to enter into new swap agreements.
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.

like i was saying the other day -- just looking at those numbers is scary. and it only continues to diverge even more. i know bids would fill in during a serious decline.... but just how many?
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
Buy and sell bitcoins,
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.

For a while. But how long? Personally, I see a bullish move to the $700s brewing, and I am praying that some of these swaps come down during that time (rather than the opposite, which has been happening --> price goes up OR down, swaps go up). Unfortunately, I think many will see a move like that as confirming the coming of the next bubble, when in fact, we might retest the lows... Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Can someone please tell me what kind of returns you can make if you deposit to Bitfinex and lend out for margin traders?

As I heard you dictate the amount of profit yourself and traders can then choose to use your funds to leverage or not. The system automatically makes that decision for them if they take a position.
full member
Activity: 169
Merit: 100
Can someone please tell me what kind of returns you can make if you deposit to Bitfinex and lend out for margin traders?

Don't forget letting someone hold your money is risky also.
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
Depends on what you lend out (BTC, USD, LTC), also it depends on the market - so far I've earned from several % per day down to 0.00XX%.

Check out bfxdata.com for example to get an overview over current rates.
member
Activity: 111
Merit: 10
Can someone please tell me what kind of returns you can make if you deposit to Bitfinex and lend out for margin traders?
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Nah, it was GLBSE, BTCS&T or inputs.io! Tongue

MF Global

The case with Mtgox is most likely same with MG Global. Betting with customer money and went bust.
MF global was a ponzi. I would say that gox was more incompetence then betting customer money and was likely not a ponzi
full member
Activity: 363
Merit: 100
SWISSREALCOIN - FIRST REAL ESTATE CRYPTO TOKEN
Nah, it was GLBSE, BTCS&T or inputs.io! Tongue

MF Global

The case with Mtgox is most likely same with MG Global. Betting with customer money and went bust.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
Nah, it was GLBSE, BTCS&T or inputs.io! Tongue

MF Global
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
There's almost 29M usd swaps now on bitfinex, and to me it looks like the upward momentum has stopped. If the price ranges from 640-660 for a while with no upward movement the probability of a long squeeze is going to increase dangerously.

Quite a lot of money they are holding.

What stop them from running away or claimed hack like tradefotress did?
They make money off of trading fees and earn a portion of the interest on Swaps. Over the long term they stand to make more money off of these fees would outweigh the amount they could get away with if they were to steal the coins from their customers.

You don't have to worry if they run off with your money.   You should worry about how to get your money out in case of insolvency
The only way to get your money back in the event of either would be to withdraw your funds prior to the theft/insolvency happening.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
There's almost 29M usd swaps now on bitfinex, and to me it looks like the upward momentum has stopped. If the price ranges from 640-660 for a while with no upward movement the probability of a long squeeze is going to increase dangerously.

Quite a lot of money they are holding.

What stop them from running away or claimed hack like tradefotress did?
They make money off of trading fees and earn a portion of the interest on Swaps. Over the long term they stand to make more money off of these fees would outweigh the amount they could get away with if they were to steal the coins from their customers.

This is only true when bitcoin is still growing and market is expanding.
I would say it is true whenever trading volumes are high. There is no need for the market to expand or the price to increase.

Volume is a function of growth and expansion. High fluctuation in price attracts gambler and speculator, which also mean increase volume.

They would make more money when volume is growing but they will make money off of the current volumes as well as most of their costs are a factor of their volume.
legendary
Activity: 1067
Merit: 1000
There's almost 29M usd swaps now on bitfinex, and to me it looks like the upward momentum has stopped. If the price ranges from 640-660 for a while with no upward movement the probability of a long squeeze is going to increase dangerously.

Quite a lot of money they are holding.

What stop them from running away or claimed hack like tradefotress did?
They make money off of trading fees and earn a portion of the interest on Swaps. Over the long term they stand to make more money off of these fees would outweigh the amount they could get away with if they were to steal the coins from their customers.

This is only true when bitcoin is still growing and market is expanding.
I would say it is true whenever trading volumes are high. There is no need for the market to expand or the price to increase.

Volume is a function of growth and expansion. High fluctuation in price attracts gambler and speculator, which also mean increase volume.
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