Topic: This day a year ago (Read 2518 times)

Yes well a year ago price was ~100$

hehe

So what we will see next year is very interesting and promising

What a cool thread to read back, what are we going to read back next year

I only think now why did I not pay more attention from the first moment I heard about btc  

its a whole different ball game! this sort of growth, i dont think has ever been witnessed by the public before? has it? isnt it normally companies like facebook and twitter that go through this but no one ever sees it...

I got goosebumps.

Not surprisingly, these ppl never show up on here when BTC break ATH again.

Ppl compare this to stocks and gold investment are also just as idiotic.

You're saying the last "bigger" bubble was when it reached 1200$? Now it's probably stabilized and if another bubble is about to appear, I think prices will reach an all time high at 2500-3500$.

Masochist

Wouldn't this graph look totally different if you would show different time period. I think it is just small manipulation and ignoring actual price of one year ago.

I think that the price surges ("bubbles" as people incorrectly call them) derive from the behavior of a few basic rules:

The natural rate of appreciation is a fairly smooth curve at about 0.6% per day.  Most people do not know this, but two groups do.  Group X consists of people who are highly invested in bitcoin and do not want to buy more due to diversification concerns.  Group Y consists of people who buy bitcoins whenever they have money to spare.

Group Y's demand for bitcoins is met by bitcoins leaked by traders, people in groups X and Y who have fallen on hard times, and miners.  During this time the price is fairly steady, however as time goes on the leakage isn't enough to satisfy group Y's demand at the current price.  Thus the price starts to rise.

Once the price of bitcoins starts to go up it starts to draw in new people.  News stories and emails spread the word that bitcoin exists and that it is doing better than ever.  People are making fortunes!  So people start to buy up bitcoins at a much faster rate.  The leakage definitely can't keep up and the price skyrockets.

Then the members of group X see a good opportunity to diversify their assets.  Maybe they see a chance to pay off a mortgage or buy a rental property.  They sell a third or a half of their bitcoins.  Group X has a lot of bitcoins, so when they enter the market the supply explodes and the price falls to a new equilibrium.  The new equilibrium is higher than before because some of the new people have joined groups X and Y.

Clearly very true, this made me laugh.

Its funny how many people talk total nonsense right out of their asses (see original post quotes).  And still do the exact same thing today.

With different numbers attached.

Buy and hold was the *only* smart move then, and the *only* smart move now.

Quote me on that in 1 year.   And 2 years.  And 5 years.

-B-

not so sure, there is a lot more money ready to go into bitcoin now then before. We are no where near the top of the uptake curve. Sure there is on but we are back in 1985 email days.

The paradox it BTC tech is moving faster than internet/email tech back then, becuae the net is here, ideas acan travel fast and BTC is open source. The uptake is slower though because the ideas are harder to grasp.

Consider 99.9999999999% of people if not more would have written you off as a fringe lunatic to even have a discussion on FIAT currency in 2008 or before. They would have thought you a ultra nerd, possibly insane and not understand what you are talking about. Let alone a currency without a central bank / govt backing. Central banks would have written this of as dreamland.

See people have been educated to think that money is valuable, intrinsically and not question that it is. Its not hard to see why. Our jobs are paid in money, houses food, material worth, cost of living, the political debate, taxation. No one dares to stand up and say,

"but your money does not represent value", and

"counterfeiting is good if you can do it"
I e all money must be open to competition by whatever means. This way the flaws in  the medium of exchange are demonstrated.

Or rather any one should be free to issue any type of money.

The state has had no serious competitor in money since....well along time. It has thus like any monopoly become soft and ripe for competition.  

the upshot being, we are in the really really early stages of BTC.

This.

Market psychology has a big impact, and TA will influence the psychology of some.

The fundamentals for owning gold are strong, yet it has still been in a bear market for 2 years. I think bitcoin has further to fall. It's not really hurting yet. Having lost >90% on some mining stocks, I know pain, and this isn't true pain yet!

You are underestimating the impact that TA 101 gamblers have on the bitcoin price. Bitcoin's price has little to do with the fundamentals.

Technical indicators are worthless if the fundamentals are strong enough, and...
Big $$$ VC is pouring into BTC companies.

No need to be so gloomy...Happy days are coming.   

It is quite easy to pump a small cap asset (just look at penny stocks), but pumping a multibillion dollar cap asset is a lot harder and percentage gains will be a lot smaller.  

Those previous astronomical patterns will not repeat in the same way.

this one I must say I like the most
It is very optimistic and I am quite sure this is good one

Bitcoin will rise in power in the future - everything is just so young till now.

The weekly EMA never came close to crossing throughout 2013, but they are now. This is an extremely bearish technical.

Thank you very much, good sir. This is an incredible read.

It seems bitcoin has always stabilized at "convinient" prices. $2, 2 btc for the dolla. $100, just move the decimal. $500, divide by 1k and then by 2.