The government actually allows you to go bankrupt and not have to pay back the banks.
This is a gift that keeps on giving.
Topic: This graph says you should get in now - page 2. (Read 4772 times)
So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?
Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016
I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.
In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.
I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.
Very rational decision. I withdrawn my pension fund in June 2013 and bought bitcoins. The rest is history.
So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?
Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016
I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.
In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.
I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.
What price did you buy in at?
So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?
Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016
I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.
In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.
I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.
So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?
Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016
So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?
He is right. After nearly 10 months we are in positive territory completely now. CCI, MACD, divergence as well as EXP is positive. Learn about these indicators and check their history over a period of a year and you will realize what OP is trying to say.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60ztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g10za2gWMAzm2g25zxzi1gCCIzi2gMACDzv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60ztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g10za2gWMAzm2g25zxzi1gCCIzi2gMACDzv
I'll play Eurotrash's method's advocate for a moment 
Original thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ratio-usd-transaction-volume-vs-usd-price-568760
Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.
Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.
Original thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ratio-usd-transaction-volume-vs-usd-price-568760
Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.
Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.
That spike at the $2 low in 2011 looks like a larger holder moving coins from Gox to a wallet to me. I can't prove this by just looking at that chart, but it fits the situation
And thanks for the link, I'll check it out this evening
I'll play Eurotrash's method's advocate for a moment
Original thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ratio-usd-transaction-volume-vs-usd-price-568760
Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.
Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.
Original thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ratio-usd-transaction-volume-vs-usd-price-568760
Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.
Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.
This is a statement taken out of the key
(if you haven't done so already)
Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.
Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.
100k+ peak sometime in 2017. I could live with that.
It crossed at the last wave-4 only to decline further.
I would love to see the original thread. It may make me rethink my position.
I would love to see the original thread. It may make me rethink my position.
Nice one, ET. I remember your method 
Maybe link to the original discussion, so people understand the importance of the crossing , and the motivation of the constant you're using.
Maybe link to the original discussion, so people understand the importance of the crossing , and the motivation of the constant you're using.
lol, history is repeating
Sorry, out of fiat since $375
This graph doesn't say shit, sorry. Only that price roughly follows the volume
(if you haven't done so already)
Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.
Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000.
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