Topic: this is a bubble. (Read 7889 times)

depends we have to monitor the volume of transactions on the exchanges as well as the perceived price.. right now it seems to hover around 100 and anything above and below is demand pressure/release.

other things to monitor is the fact that BTC is so hard to get now, the exchanges will fluctuate quite a bit now that it is harder to get BTC through mining... there will be lulls between buying sprees because people will use up at least half of the BTC they are hoarding, the people mining with ASICs won't be contributing to price accretion anytime soon... too centralized.

another factor is the market, how well advertised are the products that can be bought with BTC? if it is not well known, there will be no demand and still we have to consider that BTC is relatively hard to get and new users will have a steep learning curve to figure out the BTC ecosystem(markets, businesses, system, exchanges, etc), there will be a wave pattern to demand on the exchanges.

the ASICs entering the market may be a good thing, price will increase as soon as it is generally known that mining has become more difficult.

someone has to begin analyzing the Blockchain for economic data, what are the known retailers and payment processors BTC addresses... can the flow of BTC be in a recurring pattern that flows into these known businesses?  The more BTC is flowing in a closed loop, the more predictable the business cycle will be.

but eventually, the exchanges will die, many years from now since the possession of BTC will one day be fully decentralized, no need for exchanges on a world wide currency.

well the bubbles were something like year apart, so I think that the other one will take some time to come... but we might see 500 then

watch out for the next 1 !!
that should be soon...

yeah, it was a bubble

I wrote this about Primecoin earlier:
"also, primecoin is cool....but still doesn't really offer anything over what bitcoin does. it doesn't find new prime numbers (quite difficult to do so) but only connects prime numbers per Cunningham chains to blocks to verify validity. maybe something will come out of it, but PMC's biggest hurdle is beating the chicken and egg problem, to which BTC is a lot closer to accomplishing. imagine the economy of cryptocurrencies themselves as a chain. I imagine that people will "fork "towards the chain with the largest economy as it's the most useful. until another crypto's economy can be comparable, the largest one will keep growing the most"

PPC on the other hand, definitely warranting my attention, so thank you
for the uninitiated: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/9082/what-is-proof-of-stake      (versus proof of work)

Of course I agree completely, you wrote it very good, we need some new "medium".
But I think we should not fix solely on BTC. We cannot know what level of technical invention would be common after a couple of years. My idea was that according to common sense if you look at new cryptocoins, some of them has 20 or even 10 seconds block target - several years after BTC origin. If you want to buy groceries you dont want to wait for X confirmations.
 And proof of stake was invented with PPC. And then I think Primecoin brought something new with primenumbers. It is very probable that next year, even this fall probably, we will see more inovations. More new exchanges, cryptocoin banks. And after a couple of years bitcoin could become just outdated. It would be easier to use something else instead of rectifyinng obsolete BTC which has blockchain over 10 Gb at this time (if I am correct).
When I bought LTC this spring I thought it would be soaring till summer but instead of it, MTGox still was not able to implement LTC and MTgox itself might die or decline at least soon because of constant problems and new better competitors.
BTC is tied up on current level of knoledge and technical innovations like P2P but this level is evolving almost exponentially so it makes me think that in 2140 people would hardly be paying with BTC - simply because it would be outdated. Today we have problems to read data from certain magnetic data tape, CDs are not used much as well... I mean before we had personal PC, mobiles and internet we could hardly think of practical implementation of BTC as payment method.
And very probably 20-30 years from now the level of innovations would shift us somewhere where we dont want to use BTC anymore (in its current "shape").
And besides it - there are not still enough money in it. Market cap is high, but I guess roughly 80% of mined btc never left PC so it might be just a couple of hundred millions in it. If some "high roler" like Arabian sheikh who is drowning in money would like to buy BTC he simply would have problems with such investment - if he buys all btc price would go up maybe too much, if he buys just 1 million of btc it would be so small investment that he even would not recognize it among his hundreds of other trades.... And very probably these rich people prefer holding some obsolete things such as gold or paintings or art and they dont beleive in technical innovations (somewhere I read that Carlos Slim Helu - that rich man from Mexico was/is?/ not using computer or mobile) - how can we expect that these people would be paying with BTC? And if some of these people would not put their money in cryptocoins, than it would never become some kind of mainstream payment method.

because we need a standard medium to placehold the value of things, of which the users themselves agree upon. why do we need currency? because it's hard to exchange a boar for 5 chickens if the chicken farmer doesn't want a boar. now, your question is, why do we need bitcoin? because it's a better currency than any we have had before.

why do we need bitcoin? you need some place to live, something to eat, breath but not bitcoin.
5 years ago we lived without bitcoin and 5 years from now bitcoin might be dead. now there are hundreds of cryptocurrencies and what if somebody invents something what would be even better than bitcoin?
Do we pay with the same banknotes witch was circullating 100 years ago?
what do we use in everyday life that was common 50 years ago?
when was last time when did you burn CD or DVD?
There are not still enough money in it. I think people trade only with small fraction of bitcoins, maybe 10-20%. And only because everybody expects evaluation in the future and is holding their BTC it has some value.
but we have only 3 big exchanges with couple of small onnes. Majority of money that flows to bitcoin is perhaps from USA (I dont think many people from Cyprus invested in BTC, maybe the only one was that pure enterpreneur who made also his thread here in bitcointalk).
In our country (i am not from US) people simply have another problems and majority of common people wouldnot put money in bitcoin, wouldnot pay with btc and maybe even dont know about bitcoin.
If US goverment decide to fight against BTC or if anything else happen bitcoin might end.

Price of BTC is higher then one year ago, but did grow in the same proportion also number of goods and services that could be bought for bitcoin (except from ASIC machines etc)?
certainly we have much more web magazines writing about bitcoin, some people who made fortune on bitcoin and also plethora of other coins but otherwise it is the same as last year.
 Will you demonstrate in the streets and build barricades if price falls?
Miners need high price to get their investment back but not the users. I think it is possible that bitcoin could be $48 next month or in fall.

266/31*266=2282 

I think we already did the testing when we went down to 65 recently. We probably won't see the price go below 70 ever again.

I think sooner or later this year it will come to $50
Now its trying to pierce $100 only to lure some more buyers and than (soon) I assume it will fall - but how fast and where of course I dont know. Unfortunately I didnot have time to make detailed prediction for myself
I think it is not because of some bad banksters behind it, it is just something like natural law. The people who are in and who put money in and are trading BTC inevitably repeat some patterns of behaviour and now crowd is heading up only to fall down soon.
I think current price only shows how much people trust BTC otherwise it would not go up so high after last decline. Becuase most of people are just holding BTC and expect even bigger evaluation. And all this expectations are imprinted in the market price.
However I think $50 or even less is still reasonable price, it will not hurt almost anybody, BTC as a currency would survive it without problems and perhaps in the end it only brings more money in btc enviroment, because more people will be interested in buying. and using btc for paying goods.
And when it falled down from $266 it stopped aroud $50 so it is probable it will test this level again.

I dont think this is a bubble. Next year BTC could be $200 or more. The more people will use btc for paying common goods and services the more valuable BTC will become. And people will use it more and more everyday instead of shitty banknotes which are not already worth the paper they are printed on.

No I'd only say that something is wrong if it goes down to around $20 AND LTC remains near $3, at that point LTC mining would be generating greater total revenue which would be a big warning sign.

I thought if price fall below to $50, it must be something wrong with BTC...you better think again before buying it ....

so when do you think we can start buying BTC for $50 again?

lol 20/20 hindsight

Exactly what I said. It is going to fall soon. When supply and demand rises, volatility rises too. Like the gold market. The deal was to buy it when it was cheap. When everyone started to buy it it was a signal to start selling. And the majority of people lost money.

A few made a fortune though.

This month.

tomorrow!

I don't think BTC will go under 100 USD, at least not for a long time...

Bitcoin will live on as it has assuming this is a bubble waiting to collapse soon, driving away the speculators and in-n-out investors just like it did the first time. In 2011 everyone but the Bitcoin faithful said it was dead...they were wrong.

Imagine what height the next bubble will hit based on existing trends of BTC bubbles?

Bitcoin is a very young economy, and these things will happen until its market cap reaches a level of stability. When that happens no one knows. Maybe after the entire world's economy shifts to Bitcoin after it all goes down this year  Each BTC will be worth about  $3 Million a piece if that did happen someday. An then it wouldn't be worth $3 Million because the USD would be dead and buried, it would just be worth a Bitcoin