This is Bitcoin's future in an image

dacoinminster

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Rational Exuberance

Quote from: Lolcust on August 18, 2011, 03:29:43 PM

20 years prognosis timespan is huuuuugeeeeeeee.

Typical strategic span for a modern company is around 5 years, I'm being told. Even smaller in IT and biomed.

Distributed currency isn't a company, it is a technological breakthrough. Talking about "the future of bitcoin" now is like talking about "the future of the internet" in 1995. The impact of bitcoin will be of a similar scale over the next 20 years, and we only have hints of what that will look like now. I was too young to buy a "piece of the internet" in 1995, and it wasn't clear which companies were going to last even if I had wanted to.

There's a similar situation now, and anybody who can see it coming would be foolish not to act on that knowledge to the best of their ability.

Lolcust

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20 years prognosis timespan is huuuuugeeeeeeee.

Typical strategic span for a modern company is around 5 years, I'm being told. Even smaller in IT and biomed.

dacoinminster

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Rational Exuberance

I think the OP picture is right if you look at the next 10-20 years, but short-term, I think the TradeHill logo is a better picture for what is coming up.

I've argued continually on this forum that bitcoins are massively undervalued for what they can potentially do in the future. Once that potential starts to be realized, I will an annoying braggart and pretty much intolerable to be around (even more so than now).

Seriously. Bitcoin price increases are just getting started: http://bitcointalk.org/?topic=7985.0

Lolcust

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Quote from: boonies4u on August 18, 2011, 10:44:32 AM

Quote from: Lolcust on August 18, 2011, 10:27:32 AM

Quote from: Ten98 on August 18, 2011, 08:38:25 AM

Quote from: Lolcust on August 17, 2011, 07:31:44 AM

Well, yes, they aren't mutually exclusive, but there is a limit on how many payment systems a user can reasonably support

As for drugs, where I live, people were paying for drugs a-oky via prepaid cards and Webmoney with no small amount of success, though BTC does make some things easier, while making other things harder (every transaction is completely public, so "jurisdictional veils" do not apply)

You don't need any jurisdictional veil. Sure, every transaction is public, but senders and recipients cannot be identified.

5BTC transferring from one account to another could be for anything, from anyone to anyone.

Well, we all know that the devil is in the details. You gotta hide the history of those coins (by wisely choosing an exchange or using a "laundry" and make sure the IPs that can be gleamed by someone watching the rendevouz channels can't be traced to you and your transactions, etc.

Meanwhile, "Pecunix will not bother to honor the screams of Belorussian KGB" is a one step trick that never failed me Wink

Freshly mined BTC are also an option. As long as any "dirty" activity/wallet isn't related to one's "clean" identity/wallet and as long as said "dirty" activity/wallet isn't connected to the party's identifiers (IP Address, non-anon email, etc.), it could be pulled off quite easily. The only really dangerous stuff is moving BTC between a clean and dirty wallet, which can be solved with Laundry sites, or perhaps some loaning scheme.

Hmmmmmmm.... loaning... laundry.... hmmmm.... Okay, you have given me an idea. If it doesn't explode miserably in my face, expect being credited

boonies4u

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Quote from: Lolcust on August 18, 2011, 10:27:32 AM

Quote from: Ten98 on August 18, 2011, 08:38:25 AM

Quote from: Lolcust on August 17, 2011, 07:31:44 AM

Well, yes, they aren't mutually exclusive, but there is a limit on how many payment systems a user can reasonably support

As for drugs, where I live, people were paying for drugs a-oky via prepaid cards and Webmoney with no small amount of success, though BTC does make some things easier, while making other things harder (every transaction is completely public, so "jurisdictional veils" do not apply)

You don't need any jurisdictional veil. Sure, every transaction is public, but senders and recipients cannot be identified.

5BTC transferring from one account to another could be for anything, from anyone to anyone.

Well, we all know that the devil is in the details. You gotta hide the history of those coins (by wisely choosing an exchange or using a "laundry" and make sure the IPs that can be gleamed by someone watching the rendevouz channels can't be traced to you and your transactions, etc.

Meanwhile, "Pecunix will not bother to honor the screams of Belorussian KGB" is a one step trick that never failed me Wink

Freshly mined BTC are also an option. As long as any "dirty" activity/wallet isn't related to one's "clean" identity/wallet and as long as said "dirty" activity/wallet isn't connected to the party's identifiers (IP Address, non-anon email, etc.), it could be pulled off quite easily. The only really dangerous stuff is moving BTC between a clean and dirty wallet, which can be solved with Laundry sites, or perhaps some loaning scheme.

Lolcust

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Quote from: Ten98 on August 18, 2011, 08:38:25 AM

Quote from: Lolcust on August 17, 2011, 07:31:44 AM

Well, yes, they aren't mutually exclusive, but there is a limit on how many payment systems a user can reasonably support

As for drugs, where I live, people were paying for drugs a-oky via prepaid cards and Webmoney with no small amount of success, though BTC does make some things easier, while making other things harder (every transaction is completely public, so "jurisdictional veils" do not apply)

You don't need any jurisdictional veil. Sure, every transaction is public, but senders and recipients cannot be identified.

5BTC transferring from one account to another could be for anything, from anyone to anyone.

Well, we all know that the devil is in the details. You gotta hide the history of those coins (by wisely choosing an exchange or using a "laundry" and make sure the IPs that can be gleamed by someone watching the rendevouz channels can't be traced to you and your transactions, etc.

Meanwhile, "Pecunix will not bother to honor the screams of Belorussian KGB" is a one step trick that never failed me Wink

Ten98

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Quote from: Lolcust on August 17, 2011, 07:31:44 AM

Well, yes, they aren't mutually exclusive, but there is a limit on how many payment systems a user can reasonably support

As for drugs, where I live, people were paying for drugs a-oky via prepaid cards and Webmoney with no small amount of success, though BTC does make some things easier, while making other things harder (every transaction is completely public, so "jurisdictional veils" do not apply)

You don't need any jurisdictional veil. Sure, every transaction is public, but senders and recipients cannot be identified.

5BTC transferring from one account to another could be for anything, from anyone to anyone.

Lolcust

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Well, yes, they aren't mutually exclusive, but there is a limit on how many payment systems a user can reasonably support

As for drugs, where I live, people were paying for drugs a-oky via prepaid cards and Webmoney with no small amount of success, though BTC does make some things easier, while making other things harder (every transaction is completely public, so "jurisdictional veils" do not apply)

davout

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1davout

Quote from: Lolcust on August 17, 2011, 07:04:44 AM

Well, if it grows bigger than painpal or moneybookers, someone might do something. And that would require a lot of peeps to outright abandon paypal, which I frankly don't see happening. Painpal is nowhere near aggravating enough.

You assume bitcoin and paypal (or other payment processors) are mutually exclusive, I think there are uses for all and niches to fill for bitcoin for example. The first one that comes to my mind is the illegal drugs market

Lolcust

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Well, if it grows bigger than painpal or moneybookers, someone might do something. And that would require a lot of peeps to outright abandon paypal, which I frankly don't see happening. Painpal is nowhere near aggravating enough.

davout

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1davout

Quote from: Lolcust on August 17, 2011, 04:08:03 AM

Um, IIRC bitcoin-central just got legally incorporated and cleared for some European banking thingie, so the governments acting in a coordinated manner (talk about cat herding Roll Eyes

) to shut down bitcoins is a bit of cryptoanarchist paranoia Wink

Oh, I was thinking that even before I cleared all this

Governments might also not care at all, but somehow, I feel that if bitcoin really grows to be something important government will somehow have to do something to protect their control on financial flows.

That's what I find really interesting with bitcoin, nobody knows what the next big event or development is going to be Wink

Lolcust

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Um, IIRC bitcoin-central just got legally incorporated and cleared for some European banking thingie, so the governments acting in a coordinated manner (talk about cat herding Roll Eyes

) to shut down bitcoins is a bit of cryptoanarchist paranoia Wink

davout

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1davout

Quote from: kiba on April 10, 2011, 01:07:18 PM

Quote from: Hal on April 10, 2011, 01:03:03 PM

Got any Google Trends graphs that match this shape?

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

Nice

Quote from: ribuck on August 16, 2011, 03:47:01 PM

What you are seeing is only the first Trough of Disillusionment.

I think it's right. I predict that after the first one that revolved around security/trust issues, the second Trough of Disillusionment will be mostly about governments trying to shut exchanges down one after another or some major player getting shut down due to legal concerns.

Bitcoin is such an exciting adventure, doesn't happen very often to have the opportunity of being part of something really original and new !

ribuck

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 16, 2011, 12:08:07 PM

That's good news since if we already are at the Through of Disillusionment...

What you are seeing is only the first Trough of Disillusionment.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: kiba on April 10, 2011, 01:07:18 PM

Quote from: Hal on April 10, 2011, 01:03:03 PM

Got any Google Trends graphs that match this shape?

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

That's good news since if we already are at the Through of Disillusionment. Most technologies fail during this period. I don't see that for bitcoin right now....

However I think that this graph do not represent bitcoin as a whole but rather GPU mining in its current form.

What might be interesting is to try to model a polynomial after the curve we have here, as well as the hashing power of the network and use the correlation between the two polynomials to give some indicator.

Could even train a feed forward neural net with these.

Do I make any sense?

kiba

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Quote from: Hal on April 10, 2011, 01:03:03 PM

Got any Google Trends graphs that match this shape?

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

Hal

vip

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Got any Google Trends graphs that match this shape?

Jered Kenna (TradeHill)

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Numerous innovations and advances such as instant transfers / debit cards etc etc all fall under the slope of enlightenment or each time something big happens does this cycle repeat?

benjamindees

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You can invert that graph to get the price curve of any new technology:

Technology Trigger == Same
Peak of Inflated Expectations == Hobbyist Usage
Trough of Disillusionment == Early Adoption
Slope of Enlightenment == General Acceptance
Plateau of Productivity == Mass-Production and Commoditization

kiba

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Quote from: Clarithium on April 07, 2011, 09:07:47 PM

The true question is, is that plateau of productivity high enough for bitcoin to be a success?

No, I believe the graph repeat itself until we reach critical mass.

Topic: This is Bitcoin's future in an image (Read 3172 times)