Topic: This is just the beginning of the crash. (Read 4561 times)

Irrational exuberance!!!


I haven't really been bearish or bullish mostly on BTC except during certain prices. At $8 I was a super bull and buying it up and over $200 I was bearish and sold.  Thus I haven't had any hate thrown at me.  I try to keep my posts rational and ask serious questions adding all information to my personal valuation.

Anyway when the price is going up I tend to lurk because anything that can be slightly taken as negative will be assaulted with name calling like idiot, moron, retard.  This is what people do when they don't have logical valid arguments to justify their position.  I'm not sure exactly what BTC is worth right now because it is pure speculation and greed.  There are many great things that could bring this speculation to real value and push it to $1000.  We will see.

Anyway irrational exuberance is why most of those with critical thinking skills and legitimate concerns tend to shut up around here.  No one wants to be holding the red cape when the bulls come attacking!  Many people here are just not very civil in their debate.

For a good laugh - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance
Better info - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irrationalexuberance.asp

seems the newbs who posted all nonsense go quiet when the price keeps going up.
mind you when it drops by 5% they will be back talking about how it's going down to 30.
either they are smart or have nothing better do to with their lives

Hope, false certainty, and overconfidence

Not trying to hate or anything... but what is the bull counterpart to FUD? Lot of that going on around here.

Also be prepared for a lot more failed predictions from NikolaTesla. You think last week's failed spam FUD threads were bad? Wait until this week!

With the new BITS technology African adoption is just a matter of time. They have already been using M-Pesa for years and are already accustomed to mobilephone payments. Just give it a couple of months and it will be huge over there.

And, given that I was already shipping some BTC to a friend in Botswana last year...

So I can put you on record as saying Bitcoin will not ever become widely used in Africa. Check.

African adoption, that's some complete 'bull'shit there.

Are you bears completely missing the fact of entire countries just now becomming aware of Bitcoin?

Tens of thousands waiting in line for verification at MTSMucks, China tops downloads of the client, Africa's and Argentina's interest and adoption?

I think you guys are either blind, crazy, or butthurt manipulators.

the bear market is a myth. we just experienced a massive bubble and market correction to the most bullish period in bitcoin history. we stopped short right above the mid-term trend, and $120 held. we retraced 80% in 3 days -- the market quickly and efficiently deflated the bubble. this is nothing like the June event and you are misleading yourself by comparing them.

100% agree. With one caveat however, which is the degree: this latest bubble ended a move that's one degree larger than the 2011 bubble, so the subsequent decline should be long and drawn out, but ultimately much deeper. Be prepared for a lot of false rallies that last weeks and weeks, followed by steep drops. We're in one of the largest rallies now, but it should be constrained by the ATH and ultimately lead to a continuation of the bear market.

Yeah I've noticed that also, haha, they are just in bear mode right now. So lame!

If you actually check out their posts, they turn into a cheerleader when they buy in. When they sell, it's doom and gloom trying to push the price down so they can get back in. There's so many more traders, more money, I can't imagine these threads actually push the market either way. When people are holding BTC it's RALLY/BULL/TO THE MOON. When they have USD it's "BTC WILL BE WORTH $0!". Just wait for a spot to buy back in like every other day trader and go easy on the forum spam.

+1 I can't stand these noob idiots. They are the turds turning this place into a sceptic tank. I don't care if someone is a bear, but a couple of these late March 2013, early April 2013 guys are losers.

I agree with what you said, however I disagree that deflation is a "problem" with bitcoin. Stores of value / currencies (look at gold and silver, which both functioned as a store of value AND currency for thousands of years, and are deflationary) should be deflationary. You may be operating under a Paul Krugman-esque argument that "deflation = bad cuz ppl dont spend deflating moneys." This is categorically untrue and there is no basis for this argument. When a person's need for a good/service in the present outweighs the potential benefit for holding the deflationary store of value/currency indefinitely, a purchase is made. If this were not the case, no one would have used a silver coin with the King's image on it to buy 50lbs of parsnips at the farmer's market in 1192. But, Paul, that person should have saved the silver because it'd be worth 60lbs of parsnips in 1492! When Columbus sailed the ocean blue!
Sure we can design a coin with inflation but there's no point aside from stimulating unnecessary spending and promoting the "consume consume consume" economic model of infinite growth on top of finite resources.


You make three claims
1) The only growth in demand was from speculators
2) They are getting out of the market now
3) The ship is sinking

1) Prove it. Plenty of merchant stats to prove otherwise, so you're going to have a hard time proving this "point" that is commonly tossed about with no proof by our resident "occupy wall st. bears." I know it sounds fun to say, and makes things sound all bubbly and bearish, but I simply cannot find any data to indicate that this is the case, so hopefully you can find something that shows you didn't just say it based on "emotion" or "some piece of lint you pulled out of your ass."
 
2) Prove it. Or are you just guessing... Has volume been at all-time lows in the last month (Hint: No) Or have we seen recent record volume days? (Hint: Yes) Did trade/tx ratio suddenly plummet (Methinks it did not.) At least point to something quantitative that can indicate what you are suggesting.

3) 30day SMA hit a major inflection point but is still moving upwards, now at a healthy and more sustainable rate. Bullish. We even tested the support of the MA (after breaking it for the first/only time in 6 months during the April 10-11 crash and subsequent correction) and bounced right back up. Major bullish. If people can get away with using lagging indicators to suggest a crash (lol google trends and difficulty) I can get away with using SMA

I don't have a problem with grand, sweeping generalities so long as they are followed by an attempt to back them up with data.

Thanks for making a claim that can be proven to be true or false.  It has turned out to be false.  You were wrong. 

What now?

Wish there was a feature on this forum to auto ignore anyone who uses "dead cat bounce". Fastest way to spot people who have no fucking clue what they're talking about.

Do these "OMFG it's over" threads actually help push the price down? Just wait for a drop and buy back in like a normal person.

Well said Brushan. It is interesting to think about how BTC is changing how we view and use money. (And it is an education of sorts for many of us). Sort of like how the internet did the same for information and exchange. But, something that remains is "bad and dis-informative" information. It is another part of reality creation, or just plain manipulation of the psyche. If enough people crowd the boards with negative posts, their hope may be to bring the price down to buy more, or just to plain stop bitcoin. But we are talking about a revolution happening here, at least regarding monetary systems. Beyond BTC it is much more than we can possibly imagine, just look around. BTC, to me, is just another step in the right direction. A natural next progression for the internet.

Anyway, to predict a crash in BTC, or a great rise for that matter, is going to take more than TA. Lots of sentiment and world events to consider as well...

IAS

Why are you lying? We saw you make that thread predicting 150 next week and when you were wrong you started changing the name of the thread and shit. To what did you change it? 1.50 USD next week? It was something like that. 
I know you sold at 135 but i'll give you a tip.. Swallow your pride and buy back at a loss because the train is departing. Hell, even proudhon agrees with the bulls nowadays.