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Topic: This might be the end of the correction (Read 8092 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
March 14, 2012, 11:48:15 AM
Did you just keep putting in random numbers for the SMA until you saw something interesting?

I sure did.  It's probably rather unscientific Wink
However, every market has its own unique SMAs... the 200 clearly doesn't work with the Bitcoin market.

Read up on "overfitting" and you'll understand why this is a bad idea.
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1064
Bitcoin is antisemitic
Just in from BitcoinAnalyst - http://chart.ly/symbols/BCOIN :
"Bitcoin breakout. Next targets 7.22 $ (2012 high) and ultimately test/break of ATH (32$)"

hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
bitcoin hundred-aire
Did you just keep putting in random numbers for the SMA until you saw something interesting?

I sure did.  It's probably rather unscientific Wink
However, every market has its own unique SMAs... the 200 clearly doesn't work with the Bitcoin market.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
hmmm

I don't look at the SMA210 when I'm making a trading decision, and I am sure many other do not either.  When the link between chartists and real people is confirmed, then I might take notice.  Until then, stochastic human behaviour beats empirical analysis. 
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
Did you just keep putting in random numbers for the SMA until you saw something interesting?
Who looks at the SMA with that value? I mean I could see using a 200 day value but 210?
Making a graph show what you want to see is hardly interesting. The 200 day SMA will clearly
show bumps above the line quite a few times.

legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
We seem to have broken a critical SMA...

SMA(210) has proven to be powerful resistance/support in the past.



Things could get interesting.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
bitcoin hundred-aire
We seem to have broken a critical SMA...

SMA(210) has proven to be powerful resistance/support in the past.

hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
bitcoin hundred-aire
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
Yes.  BTW, I used bitinstant for the first time the other day to transfer some more money to MtGox and I was impressed by how well it worked.  It really was almost instant after I made the deposit at Bank of America.  Sweet.
But isn’t Bitinstant horribly expensive? I only see a use in it when you need it right now or know that the price will explode or crash soon and want to catch it for that reason.

Also, I don’t think you have been proven wrong just yet.

It certainly would have been a lot cheaper percentage wise to do a wire transfer, but (1) I wanted to try it out, and (2) I wanted the money in there fast
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Yes.  BTW, I used bitinstant for the first time the other day to transfer some more money to MtGox and I was impressed by how well it worked.  It really was almost instant after I made the deposit at Bank of America.  Sweet.
But isn’t Bitinstant horribly expensive? I only see a use in it when you need it right now or know that the price will explode or crash soon and want to catch it for that reason.

Also, I don’t think you have been proven wrong just yet.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
I might have been wrong.
Wrong about what? The secret ball boom rocket?

Yes.  BTW, I used bitinstant for the first time the other day to transfer some more money to MtGox and I was impressed by how well it worked.  It really was almost instant after I made the deposit at Bank of America.  Sweet.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
I might have been wrong.
Wrong about what? The secret ball boom rocket?
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
I might have been wrong.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
So like...what was that?

Someone poking away...someone else serving them a meal of "shut the hell up"?
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
*yawn*

hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
I think my tune would also be so amazingly different if we had at least tapped or broken $5.20 this last week...that was a bit disappointing for me because I went long early in anticipation.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
a very slow down to 4.25, fallowed by a even slower climb up and over 5.1 at which point news about some new service offered in bitcoin will trigger a wave of new money willing to buy coins no matter what the cost. hell slips open... the never ending bull run continues

I could buy that, but I don't discount the other possibilities as easily as you seem to.

  Roll Eyes ya even I don't place much trust in my thoughts...

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
a very slow down to 4.25, fallowed by a even slower climb up and over 5.1 at which point news about some new service offered in bitcoin will trigger a wave of new money willing to buy coins no matter what the cost. hell slips open... the never ending bull run continues

I could buy that, but I don't discount the other possibilities as easily as you seem to.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
A move to $5.5, which could happen naturally, would trigger a short squeeze to $6...

While the same exists in reverse, what concerns me more is the risk. The bitcoin price is ready to go up, sure, but the bulls can't play until the bears are satisfied. Indicators are extremely close to trigger a sell signal...good time for someone to rally, but it'll cost them around $120k to push that trigger. The trigger down is about half that, and since sentiment is bullish (I think), it's a very juicy path downwards.

There's a proper long term upwards support down at $3.5...the one we're at now is just make believe imo. I think the real price of this huge triangle we're in is around $4.50-$4.60.

k so, say your triangle breaks down to 4.50 then what?  panic to 4$?

No this is it...

4$ is the bottom, 4.87 is the current price, if no major buy or sell happens we'll be at 4.75 in 2 days, 4.50 in 1 week, 4.25 in 1 month

but the thing is, something will happen... and soon! ( Right Huh   ...    Wrong Grin )

major sell off, since we are so close to the bottom, a major sell of would bounce back relatively fast (don't try to cause panic selling... it simply wont work)
Or
major buy up, since we are so close to the bottom, a major buy up will retain some momentum and reach higher. ( very expensive to pull the trigger...)

IMO

no one will pull the trigger, and no one will want to try and cause panic in order to buy back lower.

so only one thing can happen

a very slow down to 4.25, fallowed by a even slower climb up and over 5.1 at which point news about some new service offered in bitcoin will trigger a wave of new money willing to buy coins no matter what the cost, hell slips open, the never ending bull run continues

I lay it out for you all to to play it out  Cool

zby
legendary
Activity: 1592
Merit: 1001
March 10, 2012, 02:44:01 AM
#99
I know many people believe that google trends are a following indicator - but fundamentally you need more people to get interested and start betting their money to move the price in a big way.  Currently the popularity indicators are down.  Google trends had a up - tick after the recent hack - but that was a negative news so we should not count much on that.  New forum members in March are also down so far.  That's why I don't believe in any big rally - it might shoot up from the triangle but that will not be a long rally - and vice versa a down move might extend massively.

Just my 3 cents Smiley
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