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Topic: this pump is because of russia? (Read 324 times)

legendary
Activity: 4214
Merit: 4458
April 29, 2023, 10:21:14 PM
#52
In agreement with others in this thread, I don't think this has anything to do with Russia. Price has been in an uptrend since the start of the year and doubled in price. As soon as there was rejection from around $30K price corrected to $27K which is where bears failed to push prices lower. Then unsurprisingly price re-tested $30K level because ultimately price remains in an uptrend so the default direction is upwards.

There had already been 4/5 days of consolidation above $27K in order to confirm it as reasonable support, so the rebound back towards the recent highs is far from surprising in this sense. But as per usual people feel the need to attribute certains event to Bitcoin's price movement, as opposed to the reality that prices weren't moving below $27K quick enough, so investors/traders felt comfortable buying at higher prices.

in 2022 most futures market whales were able to perform many 1week-1month long shorts due to a stagnant hashrate competition and used other stashes to pressure the spot markets to stay in ranges to win their future contract targets

however in 2023 they are only managing 2-5 day contracts where the natural flow of spot markets push those whales stashes to extremes that it breaks

the hashrate competition and energy prices helped push the markets. but we all know the energy markets of the world are not due to russia. but due to greed of domestic energy companies pretending their profiteering price rises are russian caused

in 2022 bottomline value of efficient mining was ~$15k now if the 350exa hashrate persists $25k will be 2023 bottom as of q2
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 2204
Crypto Swap Exchange
April 29, 2023, 05:08:15 PM
#51
In agreement with others in this thread, I don't think this has anything to do with Russia. Price has been in an uptrend since the start of the year and doubled in price. As soon as there was rejection from around $30K price corrected to $27K which is where bears failed to push prices lower. Then unsurprisingly price re-tested $30K level because ultimately price remains in an uptrend so the default direction is upwards.

There had already been 4/5 days of consolidation above $27K in order to confirm it as reasonable support, so the rebound back towards the recent highs is far from surprising in this sense. But as per usual people feel the need to attribute certains event to Bitcoin's price movement, as opposed to the reality that prices weren't moving below $27K quick enough, so investors/traders felt comfortable buying at higher prices.
sr. member
Activity: 1106
Merit: 421
April 29, 2023, 03:35:29 PM
#50
It is difficult to say that the current pump is due to Russian influence, as we know that the development of bitcoin users is increasing rapidly and in Africa there has been an increase of up to thousands of percent since 2021 so the pump is due to a significant increase in the number of users.
I would also like to agree with you in this point that it is really difficult in my opinion Russia is not the cause for this pump. I think market is running on his own speed . If we see that the next halving is not so far from now , So think before starting the halving pump I think these steps are for the recovering. Even then Bitcoin is now also a lot far from its all time high and after the q1 of 2023 it is recovering over 31k so I think there is no influencing of Russia for the pump.
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1128
April 29, 2023, 11:44:45 AM
#49
Its never just one thing, if one section was buying then another is selling those orders anyway.  It has to be a general trend to really turn the price, very roughly BTC has been following sentiment also expressed in the stock market or similar general finance trading.   Less worse is the general mood in banking and finance recently after there was some scare of weakness of a bank possible mismanagement.  Not that should have alot to do with crypto but it alters trading overall for fear of a deflationary event, speculators avoid trades etc. and its enough to turn the price.
  Russia is already trading its oil so far as I know, India and China having no national oil source has been too much of a reason to continue to supply Russia with capital; if it really were all or nothing type news in cash flows I'd take more notice of its effect.
I think it is basically the period where we are getting out of the inflation era. We had a terrible 2 years, one with inflation, one with higher interest rates and potentially recession, and we are getting out of those. Not saying we are better, but we are not getting worse and that's the point. When economy is not doing worse, that means it's a good thing, doesn't need to get better, it just needs to be doing alright.

This is why I believe that we should be helping out with a lot more situations financially and paying all the debts and just recovering. This causes bitcoin to go up, not Russia alone, not USA alone, but the whole world slowly and gradually doing better. Which should eventually turn into being much better again in the near future.
legendary
Activity: 4214
Merit: 4458
April 29, 2023, 10:33:03 AM
#48
better math

350exahash network

asic of 190thash is 1,842,105 asics at hardware cost of $3600 each
1842105 x 3600 = $6,631,578,947
lifecycle of 2 years
means their per block time is 105,000 blocks meaning:
6631578947 / 105000 = 63157.90 per block = $10105.26 per btc hardware

1,842,105 asics at 5.2kw at 6cent per kw is:
9578946kw x 6cent= $574736.76 per hour = $95789.46 per block = $15326.31 per btc

hardware+electric= $25431.57 per btc
and thats if the network was constantly at a 350exa, which previous months was lower so value/underlying cost was below $25k but if it stays at this level then thats the average BOTTOM cost per btc moving forward

as for the top cost
well use the calculated hardware + enectric at a rating of 50cents/kwh
9578946kw x 50cent= $4789473 per hour = $798245.5 per block = $127719.28 per btc
hardware+electric= $137824.54 per btc

so from cheapest mining (bottom) to most expensive mining (top) is the window of value to premium which the spot market would speculate inbetween

basically dont expect a $17k btc again unless hashrate crashes. but dont expect spot to ATH to $200k either unless hashrate jumps by another 50%
legendary
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7849
'The right to privacy matters'
April 29, 2023, 09:50:01 AM
#47
I read this news about Binance returned to Russia,
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/24/crypto-exchange-binance-is-back-in-russia-lifts-restrictions-on-russian-users-report/
i think just returning a exchange don't cause it, but pretty good news for russians


No this is not a pump.

This is BTC getting back to where it should be from a cost viewpoint.

Ie about 40k based on mining cost.

franky1 has talked about it.

btc has a base cost from creation viewpoint.

about 35-45k


traders speculate and drive it up or down.

we are not in the 35-45k slot which is kind of the proper mining price.

a pump would be over 45k.


think like this 6 cent power

and 20 s19s

means you burn 20 x 3 x 24  = 1500 kwatts a day (rounded to 1500 from 1440) X 6 cents  = 90 usd

you earn 20 x 100 x 0.078 = 156 usd minus 90 =  A 66 DOLLAR PROFIT

So a 66 dollar profit based on 20 x 1500 = 30,000 for machines

66 x 365 = 24,090 profit for those 20 machines is 2000 a month so in 15 months 30k or 1btc.

It is low it should be higher. we are underpriced based on miners costs.

If we were 40k we would make 110 a day profit or 40,150 in 1 year or  btc profit.

So we are simple pushing back to proper balanced levels.

The issue is why are we under 40k.

Not why are we pumping to 30k.

We are under correct levels due to bears wanting to get BTC on the cheap.
sr. member
Activity: 1316
Merit: 379
#SWGT PRE-SALE IS LIVE
April 29, 2023, 09:31:33 AM
#46
If actually the information is authentic then there could be positive impact on the market which would caused another strong buy in the bitcoin market but however, i believe they have been secretly using p2p services as my country does so in other way round there may not be that impact on market.

"Bitcoin pumped because Russia did this"
"Bitcoin dumped because China did this"
"Bitcoin dumped because US did this"

Usually there is no government in control of the market or nation rather but their little efforts and actions also influences the market positively or negatively so the news are real. Despite no authority in charge of bitcoin price movement.
newbie
Activity: 21
Merit: 7
April 29, 2023, 09:24:35 AM
#45
It is difficult to say that the current pump is due to Russian influence, as we know that the development of bitcoin users is increasing rapidly and in Africa there has been an increase of up to thousands of percent since 2021 so the pump is due to a significant increase in the number of users.
It is also possible that the pump is being driven by speculative activity, where investors are buying Bitcoin in anticipation of future price increases, rather than actual adoption or usage of the technology, or returning back to Russia. It's best to exercise caution when attempting to attribute market movements to any one specific factor, especially without concrete evidence.
STT
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1411
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
April 29, 2023, 09:19:12 AM
#44
Its never just one thing, if one section was buying then another is selling those orders anyway.  It has to be a general trend to really turn the price, very roughly BTC has been following sentiment also expressed in the stock market or similar general finance trading.   Less worse is the general mood in banking and finance recently after there was some scare of weakness of a bank possible mismanagement.  Not that should have alot to do with crypto but it alters trading overall for fear of a deflationary event, speculators avoid trades etc. and its enough to turn the price.
  Russia is already trading its oil so far as I know, India and China having no national oil source has been too much of a reason to continue to supply Russia with capital; if it really were all or nothing type news in cash flows I'd take more notice of its effect.
sr. member
Activity: 1792
Merit: 255
April 29, 2023, 08:59:50 AM
#43
It is difficult to say that the current pump is due to Russian influence, as we know that the development of bitcoin users is increasing rapidly and in Africa there has been an increase of up to thousands of percent since 2021 so the pump is due to a significant increase in the number of users.
hero member
Activity: 2842
Merit: 625
April 28, 2023, 07:13:00 PM
#42
Well, no one has the accurate answer why we've got the pump. And when the price corrected, we also don't have any idea why it had happened.

Well, it's not exactly like that. We can speak in terms of probabilities, since correlation does not imply causation but neither does it preclude it. In this case, it is difficult to know and a priori it does not seem that the return of Binance to Russia is determinant for the pump, but there have been other cases, such as when mining was banned in China, where there was a price drop and we can assume that with great probability it was caused by it.
Yes, that example you've given did really had an impact to the market before. Maybe yes, this could be the one of the reasons of the pump that we've got.

But then, it's not that accurate at all or I think it's better to say that it can also be the one since the market is still affected whenever some good or bad news has come.
full member
Activity: 1444
Merit: 156
#SWGT PRE-SALE IS LIVE
April 28, 2023, 04:23:53 AM
#41
it will not have a significant impact on the crypto market globally because the Russian market is not that big compared to the American, Indian or other countries. especially in Russia, there is not only Binance, there are still Kraken, Bybit, and Bittrex, which is too much to say that Binance is the cause of this pump.
sr. member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 453
April 28, 2023, 03:51:12 AM
#40
I read this news about Binance returned to Russia,
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/24/crypto-exchange-binance-is-back-in-russia-lifts-restrictions-on-russian-users-report/
i think just returning a exchange don't cause it, but pretty good news for russians


I'm sorry but I don't believe what you're saying about Russia dumping Bitcoin, you're wrong. One day bitcoin became very volatile for the last 24 hours.

Therefore, with this move by bitcoin, many traders were liquidated. Both long and short positions are the same, and as far as I know, before BTC's price dump happened, Crypto trading giant Jump Trading deposited 26.6M$ worth of Btc in the exchange. When these whales send large Btc, that is a sign of intention to sell. So it's possible that they really dumped, and there are also rumors that the one in Mt. Gox or the bitcoin held by the U.S Government but that's not true because they haven't sold yet.
legendary
Activity: 2030
Merit: 1401
Disobey.
April 28, 2023, 02:59:49 AM
#39
I read this news about Binance returned to Russia,
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/24/crypto-exchange-binance-is-back-in-russia-lifts-restrictions-on-russian-users-report/
i think just returning a exchange don't cause it, but pretty good news for russians


Please avoid these kind of dumb questions in the future.
"this pump is because of russia?"

-> Any complex thing, such as Bitcoin, something that is interconnected with hundrets of markets, influenced by millions of individuals, by thousands of news, hundrets of governments and instituations, tdoes not follow any simple A -> B causality.
It's always a mesh of factors, extremely rarely can a movement be broken down to a single cause, but surely not in this case.
The last such event was probably the FTX exchange scam, but even then the real causes of the market movements were connected to lots and lots of other factors.

tldr: Just avoid any black and white or A->B thinking in a complex market situation like Bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 3444
Merit: 10558
April 28, 2023, 02:13:32 AM
#38
For starters there has not been any "pumps" to be because of anything! There was a rise starting from early March which was partly because of the US  banks going bankrupt one by one and partly because that price was considered "undervalued" (way below bitcoin's intrinsic value) so the price had to go back up.

The recent small 5-10% drop was because of the failure to break the new resistance so the short term traders started pulling out to make a profit again before the next leg up which is what we are seeing in the past 4 days (price started rising back up again).

But of course any kind of adoption news has an effect on the price. But you should keep in mind that Binance is an altcoin exchange first and its operation in any country including Russia is not going to have a significant effect on bitcoin price. Not to mention that the market that Binance lost was filled by other exchanges so going back like this is not going to bring back their customers since they've already chosen an alternative.
legendary
Activity: 3738
Merit: 1708
April 28, 2023, 12:49:12 AM
#37
Maybe the tax deadline had something to do with it. I remember back in 2018, we rallied in April. And then tanked for the rest of the year, but April was a good month. Maybe it was due to the tax selling.

However the difference is that 2017 was a bull market and many made tons of capital gains. But 2022 definitely wasn’t a bullish year and most probably lost money. So it’s not exactly the same situation.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
April 27, 2023, 11:58:20 PM
#36
Well, no one has the accurate answer why we've got the pump. And when the price corrected, we also don't have any idea why it had happened.

Well, it's not exactly like that. We can speak in terms of probabilities, since correlation does not imply causation but neither does it preclude it. In this case, it is difficult to know and a priori it does not seem that the return of Binance to Russia is determinant for the pump, but there have been other cases, such as when mining was banned in China, where there was a price drop and we can assume that with great probability it was caused by it.
sr. member
Activity: 1288
Merit: 253
April 27, 2023, 11:52:32 PM
#35
I read this news about Binance returned to Russia,
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/24/crypto-exchange-binance-is-back-in-russia-lifts-restrictions-on-russian-users-report/
i think just returning a exchange don't cause it, but pretty good news for russians

News writers often take advantage of certain moments so that there are many visitors who want to read the news and then make their own claims about something that is happening. Even though it could have happened by chance because there are many events in this world that occur on the same day and each of these things does not have to be connected to one another.

Because as long as there is supply and demand for Bitcoin, pumps and price drops will always exist and occur in the market, because it is part of an economic cycle that does have unexpected movements. So there is no need to associate news with something that is currently happening because it may not necessarily be true because it still has possibilities from other elements.
hero member
Activity: 2842
Merit: 625
April 27, 2023, 07:49:39 PM
#34
Well, no one has the accurate answer why we've got the pump. And when the price corrected, we also don't have any idea why it had happened.

But we're just all having that thought that the bull run is about to happen and that's why even if some correction do happens, it will just recover completely and fastly.

We need to be cautious at these times because we might not see these prices again once the bull is in.
STT
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1411
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
April 27, 2023, 07:41:38 PM
#33
BTC is just quite bullish at present, a pullback from the year to date gains was not to be taken as a negative overall but more of a helpful rest.    If we had failed to hold the 50 day average perhaps and resolved downwards in any regular way that would be more serious.    All thats holding BTC right now is a fairly small line of resistance around 30k representing prior lows from about 1 year ago etc.
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