Topic: THIS question goes to D- Zombei R5, R6, R9 R10, R11,R12 Share owners. (Read 1816 times)

Ship date of won KNC miner is unknown.

I say mine now as hard as we can with current difficulty without changing the pool, my vote as owner of 10 shares in R5 is NO.

R5 shares owner , Vote : No.

Yes.  The shifts at BTCG are about 45 minutes long, and there are 10 active.  You would be getting paid for a decreasing number of shifts on BTCG while being paid for an increasing number of shifts on Bitminter.   It should pretty much be a wash, income wise...

 Thats one reason to wait a bit.  But I have to ask don't you keep getting paid from btc Guild as the average drops .   If I mine at bitminter for 24 hours in a row then my power goes out my payoffs slowly decrease  even though I no longer am hashing.   each hour they drop 1/24 until a day is up they they are at 0.   so moving out of bit minter does not cost instantly it slow reduces.

  is not that true of btcGuild?

You will lose some coins when you switch due to the way pplns works. You could have half a day of shifts before your back to full payout again.

I say we give BitMinter a shot.
I have minimal shares in the rounds in question however so any loss from switching pools or luck is miniscule for me

I think since our hash rate is a fair size it's much more important how reliable this pool is.  You're not very likely to win the miner even with our hash rate, the likelihood is about 4%.  We should really balance that against any possible downtown, it's pretty easy for a bad pool to cost us any possible gains.
Bit minter is ok but btcguild has always seemed more reliable.
Either way I own a few shares in R11 and I'd rather stay put for now, I don't think we have to gamble here.  But if other people really wanna gamble for the miner I won't protest too much either.  

Oops :p, forgot a '0'. Edited my post. My opinion remains the same though. Our earnings are the same on each pool, but we can win something on bitminter.

no the chance is about 4 or 5 out of 233.

  that is about 1 or 46 or 1 of 50.  still a very nice prize and not terrible odds.

I done long price calculations of the top 10 pools and they are all very close to the same.   I have seen bitminter have great days and piss poor days as I have seen most pools have the same results.  

I really see no downside doing this from Nov 26 to Nov 30.

 I do see possible issues doing it from the 4th to the 30th ie bitminter has a long losing streak for 2 or 3 weeks.

That's what I thought. Both pools are large enough to have the earnings level out. So unless one of the pools is really unlucky for a whole month, it doesn't really matter which pool is joined. But since we have a 1 out of 50 chance to win 550GH/s mining on Bitminter, I'd choose Bitminter.

That's not luck, it's variance.  You will hit less blocks on Bitminter, but get paid more per block - it all averages out. There is essentially no payout difference between the top 10 pools if you mine consistently.

BTC Guild pays less per block, more frequently.
Bitminter pays more per block, less frequently.

 

we may not lose anything.  


   earning coins  in pool a vs pool b  

  involves luck/variance  

   so pool a  could earn more in a given period of time then pool b


lets say our current pool BTC guild    has a good day  and bitminter has a bad day   


  we were better off being in the first pool   we make 2 coins  in the second pool we make 1.8 coins since they had a bad day.

  So entering for 25 days in a row in bitminter  our coop may earn less the 25 days in a row at btc guild.

 it could earn more.    we can't tell for sure and we can only estimate if the loss or gain at either pool would be +5 or 0 or -5 over the next 25 days or even +1 or minus 1.    But as diff gets worse and the time enter is shorter we would not have very much to lose or gain on the mining end.

 agreed   which for a 26 day commitment for all of us I hesitate.  

For the group waiting til mid NOV or late NOV is less to lose. with the same prize at stake

Why would we lose 2 or 3 btc?

The only thing I see as a problem is Bitminters lower luck, I've never seen bitminter hit 6 blocks in a row let alone the 20+ BTCguild does in 10 hours of shifts.

yeah but after the 16th diff will be more then 600 mill and our earnings are down a lot from the current 390 mill.   so enter late ( Nov 16th ) at a minimum should be pretty much an easy choice to make.  enter this week on the 5th is a bit tougher choice.

 
   if I had 4th in my pocket I would run on bitminter starting today  and up to the 30th.  but we are a group and the down side is 25 days we don't win and our earnings are  2 or 3 btc less.

 BTW we would not be sure if the earnings are less or more then if we stay with the current pool  we would only be able to estimate with an unknown error margin.    

 the reason is our shift of 4th  from the current pool to bitminter would have an effect on both pools luck and/or variance.

 So we would only be able to do a calculation est of what should happen with normal luck and or variance.

 I used to gamble a lot all kinds of games of chance and I did a lot of game theory  work for fun and /or profit.

It is why I mentioned this contest as the cost to enter is 'free' or very little or you get paid to enter.  the win is a knc jupiter .

Lets say we wait til 2 diff adjustments pass late NOV diff is at 700 mill and we have 5th in the coop. 



 at 700 mill diff 5th earns 3.587 btc  so NOV 27 28 29 30   we enter   normal luck we earn about 14.3 btc      so if those 4 days earn 13.3 btc our bad luck is 1btc down  (BTW we would never know for sure that staying in the other pool would have been better or worse since the act of moving the 5th from the original pool changes its luck)


  the  worst downside of late enter is we don't win the contest  and we lose 1 or 2 coins.
 the lesser downside of late enter is we don't win the contest and we earn the same amount of coins
 the least downside of late enter is we don't win the contest and we earn  1 or 2 coins extra.   

upside we win the contest and don't really give a shit about the coins  mined     since   plus or minus 1 or 2 coins against the jupiter are really good.

  if you do this on the 16th of NOV  with diff at 580 mill   you have a bigger chance to win the contest  but  more earnings could be won or loss  with a larger variance  we could be plus, even or minus up to 5 coins.


and lastly if we start in a day or two  we have the biggest chance to win but the up or down of the coins could be as much as 7 or 8 coins.

 for me if I had the 4tb or  5tb why not do all 26 days left.  but there are good arguments to wait until  the adjustment on the 16th of nov  or even wait until the last 2 or 3 days of the contest.  Just food for thought.

I think this a great contest and a nice opportunity for us to gain a little extra. What is there to lose? A few minutes of income for someone to change a few parameters in the mining software to let it mine at bitminter? IMO, the prospect of winning the KnC miner outweighs the effort and almost-no-loss of joining the contest. That and, unless I've read it wrong, the fee at bitminter is only 1%, while it's 3% at btcguild.

I vote yes with my 20 votes in R11.

Anyway, I'm pointing my 120GH/s towards bitminter right now . Might be competing with the groupbuy which I'm a part of :p.


Edit: also, the later we join the contest, the less chance we have of creating a winning block.

I agree and since this is a 1 month contest we can wait until the next diff comes. It will be at 500 mill. lets say on the 5th of nov.  then on the 16th of nov the diff is 650 mill. 

 we can steer our hash on the 16th since the contest runs until the 30th.


better yet  the diff adjusts again on the 27th of nov.   lets say it is at 800 mill we enter the last 3 days of the contest.   our earning power will be far lower then  so less to lose.  we hash the last 3 days of the contest. In a sense it is less stressful and less risk.

  since top prize is a knc miner jupiter with 550gh hash  it would help the coop's hash rate or even just sell it for a 1 time pay off.

  look realistic thinking is we won't win  but cost is not that high to enter  and by waiting for at least 1 diff move after tues diff move.  ie join the 16 of nov  our downside is lowered since we will have more back on our investments.


The pool pays nmc btc fees are not high variance is so so they have 5 to 10 percent of the network.  auto payout can be set.

  I do agree that we don't need to do it.  We can wait a bit until we get more return .

So here's the thing.... I wouldn't mind doing this but only if it doesn't really impact our earnings.  We have a limited window of potential profitability and I hate to mess with that.  I need more details before I vote my 10.