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Topic: This rally is a pirate bubble (Read 8704 times)

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
August 19, 2012, 05:45:23 PM
#87
1) Discover way to get a shitload of cash
2) Retire
There, fixed that for you...
hero member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 569
Catalog Websites
August 19, 2012, 05:26:48 PM
#86
this
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
August 09, 2012, 11:17:46 AM
#85
1) Discover way to get a shitload of cash
2) Make a run of your own FPGA boards in China to mine on a massive scale and then pay some hackers to DDoS the major mining pools.
3) ...
4) Profit.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 08, 2012, 09:34:58 PM
#84
I don't get it. People invest Bitcoin with Pirate. If he sells the Bitcoin it drives the price down, how does he drive the price up without using his own money? Is there a new leveraged short-selling exchange?

There are several, but none as big as bitcoinica was and certainly not enough to take a volume pirate would need.

There isn't as much to get about it, people buy BTC in order to give them to pirate. He accumulates them and pays out interest. If it is a straight Ponzi it makes sense the price is going up before the default.

Agreed. If everyone bought bitcoin and invested with pirate (which I believe is true on a larger scale than people realize) the price has to rise. Pirate can only get bitcoins from three different places:

1. new investors

2. mining them

3. buying them
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 08, 2012, 09:33:40 PM
#83
I don't get it. People invest Bitcoin with Pirate. If he sells the Bitcoin it drives the price down, how does he drive the price up without using his own money? Is there a new leveraged short-selling exchange?

We all know that if it isn't already being done it will be done in the future (pirate buying bitcoins on the open exchange).

So the price rising isn't a good thing if he needs to buy them on the open market. Then again he could be mining them through GPUMAX etc.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 08, 2012, 09:32:55 PM
#82
I don't get it. People invest Bitcoin with Pirate. If he sells the Bitcoin it drives the price down, how does he drive the price up without using his own money? Is there a new leveraged short-selling exchange?

There are several, but none as big as bitcoinica was and certainly not enough to take a volume pirate would need.

There isn't as much to get about it, people buy BTC in order to give them to pirate. He accumulates them and pays out interest. If it is a straight Ponzi it makes sense the price is going up before the default.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
August 08, 2012, 09:16:13 PM
#81
I don't get it. People invest Bitcoin with Pirate. If he sells the Bitcoin it drives the price down, how does he drive the price up without using his own money? Is there a new leveraged short-selling exchange?
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 08, 2012, 09:07:26 PM
#80
So, in one moment Pirate is doomed above $10 - then he's just fine until we hit $13, or is it $20? Wait, I read on this forum that Pirate controls BTC prices, so there's no way they'd be trading so high... oh wait...

This stuff is so hilariously contradictory I can't even begin to laugh enough.

You're getting the idea...it's all speculation.

Actually it is paranoia.

No it's specunoia!
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
August 08, 2012, 04:19:54 PM
#79
at that time the 7% per week interest rate made a lot of sense and was perfectly sustainable.

In a finite universe exponential growth is never perfectly sustainable.

In a system with a hard limit of 21 million bitcoins exponential growth is especially unsustainable.

You seem to be misunderstanding the velocity of money. Bitcoins can move multiple times, so a person can pay out more than the total number of bitcoins if they are also taking in bitcoins.
hero member
Activity: 642
Merit: 500
August 08, 2012, 04:06:46 PM
#78
Please people, stop talking percentages. "It's impossible to pay 7% a week." No, it's not. Completely depends on how much you lent out , and how much money you're making.
If he's paying out 30k a week, discuss that figure. Is that possible to pay out? Yes, plenty businesses earn that much.
Is it suspiciously high though? Sure it is. But don't focus on the percentage figures, unless you have clear data on exactly how much his operations grows / shrinks / has grown / will grow over time.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 08, 2012, 02:49:30 PM
#77
at that time the 7% per week interest rate made a lot of sense and was perfectly sustainable.

In a finite universe exponential growth is never perfectly sustainable.

In a system with a hard limit of 21 million bitcoins exponential growth is especially unsustainable.

It is perfectly sustainable only as long as the BTC / USD rate keeps dropping at the faster rate than the BTC interest rate not for ever.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
August 08, 2012, 02:27:49 PM
#76
at that time the 7% per week interest rate made a lot of sense and was perfectly sustainable.

In a finite universe exponential growth is never perfectly sustainable.

In a system with a hard limit of 21 million bitcoins exponential growth is especially unsustainable.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 08, 2012, 01:20:15 PM
#75

no
,3400% interest on bitcoins can not be explained by fiat currency growing lower in value
not even at anywhere near those rates
just no

Absolutely. In fact appreciation of BTC with respect to USD as has been the case this year makes the situation a lot worse. On the other hand if BTC were depreciating with respect to USD at a rate over 7% per week as was the case between July 2011 and December 2011 then at that time the 7% per week interest rate made a lot of sense and was perfectly sustainable.
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
August 08, 2012, 12:16:34 PM
#74
Alright- a question for those who think it's a pirate and pirate-like bubble: when will it pop? Just don't state the obvious.

Hard to say. If pirate is actually making real money it would be right after his first big screwup where he loses a large
percentage of the funds.

This is the way I see it. He has a way to make money (i guess). So he starts out using his own. He is making good money.
Instead of him digging up more resources himself or starting small and reinvesting his profits to grow to keep all the juicy
profits... he decides to borrow money from people.

Well I would not want to do this unless there was a large risk involved. Better to play/gamble/deal with other people's
money then for me to risk my own via a bank loan, savings, etc... That would be best for pirate. And the people borrowing
the money to him get ~8% interest per week because the risk is huge. Otherwise interest rate would be much smaller.

Thus there must be a large risk involved in his operations and eventually a string of losses, him getting scammed, or
what have you will cause the problem we are waiting for. Hard to put a time on this and I am making the assumption
that he is semi legit.

If a ponzi or some other type of scam... the math gives good info on an estimate.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 508
Firstbits: 1waspoza
August 08, 2012, 12:14:43 PM
#73
Alright- a question for those who think it's a pirate and pirate-like bubble: when will it pop? Just don't state the obvious.

2-4 weeks after reward drop.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 501
There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.
August 08, 2012, 11:48:00 AM
#72
Alright- a question for those who think it's a pirate and pirate-like bubble: when will it pop? Just don't state the obvious.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 08, 2012, 11:04:17 AM
#71
The increase in price is not due to an increase in the exchange of goods and services for bitcoins or favorable news, the two traditional causes for rallies.

Everyone is buying BTC to get in on pirate's scheme, pirate passthroughs, and other pirate like "lending" schemes.

Obviously earning 3300% a year on BTC is more attractive than 0-10%/year with USD.

The entire bitcoin economy is shifting towards lending and various financial instruments.

If pirate were to default, would the price crash?  There would certainly be less incentive to buy BTC.  Of course, pirate might have all of the coins by then... so there might not be many sellers.

Do not forget, that USD has lost over 96% of its value in the last 100 years or so and only! 33% in last 12 years.
Is it possible, that BTC just holds value better than this green funny money form your dear Fed printer?

no
,3400% interest on bitcoins can not be explained by fiat currency growing lower in value
not even at anywhere near those rates
just no
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank
August 08, 2012, 07:36:37 AM
#70
The increase in price is not due to an increase in the exchange of goods and services for bitcoins or favorable news, the two traditional causes for rallies.

Everyone is buying BTC to get in on pirate's scheme, pirate passthroughs, and other pirate like "lending" schemes.

Obviously earning 3300% a year on BTC is more attractive than 0-10%/year with USD.

The entire bitcoin economy is shifting towards lending and various financial instruments.

If pirate were to default, would the price crash?  There would certainly be less incentive to buy BTC.  Of course, pirate might have all of the coins by then... so there might not be many sellers.

Do not forget, that USD has lost over 96% of its value in the last 100 years or so and only! 33% in last 12 years.
Is it possible, that BTC just holds value better than this green funny money form your dear Fed printer?
jr. member
Activity: 46
Merit: 1
August 08, 2012, 12:08:13 AM
#69
So, in one moment Pirate is doomed above $10 - then he's just fine until we hit $13, or is it $20? Wait, I read on this forum that Pirate controls BTC prices, so there's no way they'd be trading so high... oh wait...

This stuff is so hilariously contradictory I can't even begin to laugh enough.

You're getting the idea...it's all speculation.

Actually it is paranoia.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 07, 2012, 11:34:23 PM
#68
So, in one moment Pirate is doomed above $10 - then he's just fine until we hit $13, or is it $20? Wait, I read on this forum that Pirate controls BTC prices, so there's no way they'd be trading so high... oh wait...

This stuff is so hilariously contradictory I can't even begin to laugh enough.

You're getting the idea...it's all speculation.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1121
August 07, 2012, 11:19:24 PM
#67
So, in one moment Pirate is doomed above $10 - then he's just fine until we hit $13, or is it $20? Wait, I read on this forum that Pirate controls BTC prices, so there's no way they'd be trading so high... oh wait...

This stuff is so hilariously contradictory I can't even begin to laugh enough.
full member
Activity: 206
Merit: 100
August 07, 2012, 09:55:07 PM
#66
There is no cut and dried liability if you can't prove wrongdoing. From a hypothetical Pirate's perspective, the outcomes are indistinguishable, so might as do the one that allows squirling away wealth.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 07, 2012, 08:13:11 PM
#65
ArcticMine: Yeah, no. Honestly, if he's happy with pissing people off anyway, and contemplates a lawsuit, it's better to just squirrel the money away and blame default on "hackers" or thieving "business partners" that cannot be disproved.

The difference is between a very clear cut and dry liability and one that may take years and an army of lawyers to figure out if a liability even exists.
full member
Activity: 206
Merit: 100
August 07, 2012, 08:01:18 PM
#64
ArcticMine: Yeah, no. Honestly, if he's happy with pissing people off anyway, and contemplates a lawsuit, it's better to just squirrel the money away and blame default on "hackers" or thieving "business partners" that cannot be disproved.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 07, 2012, 07:41:02 PM
#63
i think if pirate returned everyones coins

Where would these coins come from? After interest payouts that already happened?

If he is short he would have to buy from the rest of us. Who knows I might even sell him just a few  Wink. The latter of course depends on the price. Of course there may be also those that are buying in order to profit from a Pirate short squeeze, so in that sense the rally could also be due to Pirate.
Why would he buy fresh coins to pay depositors back?
If he was going to default he'd just up and leave.

I am assuming this is not going to be a simple grab the cash and run or classic Ponzi type default. Pirate is a lot more sophisticated than many in the "anti-pirate" camp give him credit for. Something along the lines of what I mentioned in your other thread https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1084866 on the other hand may well be what happens.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
August 07, 2012, 06:47:23 PM
#62
I wonder if pirate is the US government trying to buy up as many BTC as possible. They can afford to pay out 7% with their fiat.

Let me be the first to have the honor to welcome you to the halls of this forum, kind Sir!

LOL...thanks...I think.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
August 07, 2012, 06:47:00 PM
#61
If he was going to default he'd just up and leave.

It would make much more sense, if he's really scamming people, to sell of a little at a time and stretch it out as long as possible. It doesn't crash the market and it doesn't look that suspicious.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 07, 2012, 06:08:56 PM
#60
i think if pirate returned everyones coins

Where would these coins come from? After interest payouts that already happened?

If he is short he would have to buy from the rest of us. Who knows I might even sell him just a few  Wink. The latter of course depends on the price. Of course there may be also those that are buying in order to profit from a Pirate short squeeze, so in that sense the rally could also be due to Pirate.
Why would he buy fresh coins to pay depositors back?
If he was going to default he'd just up and leave.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 07, 2012, 02:49:33 PM
#59
i think if pirate returned everyones coins

Where would these coins come from? After interest payouts that already happened?

If he is short he would have to buy from the rest of us. Who knows I might even sell him just a few  Wink. The latter of course depends on the price. Of course there may be also those that are buying in order to profit from a Pirate short squeeze, so in that sense the rally could also be due to Pirate.
legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
August 07, 2012, 10:43:44 AM
#58
...Everyone is buying BTC to get in on pirate's scheme, pirate passthroughs, and other pirate like "lending" schemes. ...
I have never used these services, I don't even understand them and yet I have been buying recently.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1015
August 07, 2012, 10:07:24 AM
#57
It's virtually impossible not to see all the threads pointing out how likely this is to be a scam, yet Usagi decided to stop selling NYAN.C, which is at the moment essentially a fund of passtroughs, because it was selling too well -and he was afraid too many would blame him for losing their money, I guess. It was one of the most surreal post I have ever read, a share issuer mad at how well his shares were selling
usagi found out what all of the PPT issuers have known for months, but have neglected to tell anybody: Pirate's deposits are growing more than 7% per week.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 07, 2012, 06:49:52 AM
#56

So in theory he can run this ponzi for ~1 more year then pack his bags and disappear ? 
Sigh, I hate slow burn drama's.
Not necessarily.
At the moment every week the vast majority of his interest payments get immediately reinvested - in addition to people providing extra new investment.

In addition, there's a lot of smoke and mirrors surrounding things like the size of the exposure people have to BS&T, I tried to start a discussion on it last week (so all the numbers are presumably even higher now):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98225.0;topicseen
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
August 07, 2012, 06:37:58 AM
#55
investigators suspect madoff was fraudulant from the 1960s and he never missed an interest payment
for 39 years

It's virtually impossible not to see all the threads pointing out how likely this is to be a scam, yet Usagi decided to stop selling NYAN.C, which is at the moment essentially a fund of passtroughs, because it was selling too well -and he was afraid too many would blame him for losing their money, I guess. It was one of the most surreal post I have ever read, a share issuer mad at how well his shares were selling

Sold out already, anymore on the way?

I'm thinking about it. It's just that people are gravitating towards pirate and high risk and they are going to lose a lot of money like this.

Please, for your own sake, I've stopped sale of NYAN.C as it was selling over 5x faster than A or B. Sure, pirate is popular, but people for your own sake stop buying so much pirate. You're going to lose your money.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
August 07, 2012, 06:36:22 AM
#54
Pirate = CIA and they are using btc to fund their black ops and pay their spies so they dont have to explain to the public where the money is going.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 07, 2012, 06:23:20 AM
#53
investigators suspect madoff was fraudulant from the 1960s and he never missed an interest payment
for 39 years
mem
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 501
Herp Derp PTY LTD
August 07, 2012, 06:20:14 AM
#52
I have to somewhat agree with the OP. With pirate's BTCST in place if you bought 10k bitcoins at $5 and you invested 100% of that with pirate you would have 20k bitcoins by now.

I believe much of the ramp could (not necessarily is) but could be a biproduct of people wanting to buy btc low and as the USD price rises not only do they get more bitcoins but each bitcoin is worth more USD.

Unsustainable in my opinion.

Just my take...

someone on another thread calculated that they would need $10,000 a month to retire comfortabley on

they then calculated that by giving pirate 379 BTC the compounding interest in a very short time would equal retirement

if thats not crazy enough for you ,heres another one :

if pirate continues to pay this interest for about 18 months he will have paid out moe than all the bitcoins in the world INCLUDING the ones that havent been mined yet and wont be mined for years 


So in theory he can run this ponzi for ~1 more year then pack his bags and disappear ? 
Sigh, I hate slow burn drama's.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 07, 2012, 05:38:50 AM
#51
I have to somewhat agree with the OP. With pirate's BTCST in place if you bought 10k bitcoins at $5 and you invested 100% of that with pirate you would have 20k bitcoins by now.

I believe much of the ramp could (not necessarily is) but could be a biproduct of people wanting to buy btc low and as the USD price rises not only do they get more bitcoins but each bitcoin is worth more USD.

Unsustainable in my opinion.

Just my take...

someone on another thread calculated that they would need $10,000 a month to retire comfortabley on

they then calculated that by giving pirate 379 BTC the compounding interest in a very short time would equal retirement

if thats not crazy enough for you ,heres another one :

if pirate continues to pay this interest for about 18 months he will have paid out moe than all the bitcoins in the world INCLUDING the ones that havent been mined yet and wont be mined for years 
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 06, 2012, 09:03:46 PM
#50
We will have many chuckles when the music stops and only one chair left.

+1 I can't see how this whole pyramid scheme can unwind itself in such a way that NO ONE gets burned.


I've got my popcorn ready. I think we will see much much drama concerning pirate etc. in the next 6 to 12 months if not sooner.
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
August 06, 2012, 08:55:52 PM
#49
We will have many chuckles when the music stops and only one chair left.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 06, 2012, 06:19:08 PM
#48
I have to somewhat agree with the OP. With pirate's BTCST in place if you bought 10k bitcoins at $5 and you invested 100% of that with pirate you would have 20k bitcoins by now.

I believe much of the ramp could (not necessarily is) but could be a biproduct of people wanting to buy btc low and as the USD price rises not only do they get more bitcoins but each bitcoin is worth more USD.

Unsustainable in my opinion.

Just my take...
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
August 05, 2012, 01:01:04 PM
#47

At the end of the day, if you put your money in a black box and get ripped off, it's your own damn fault.
It's very difficult to feel sorry for the investors in Enron, Madoff, or by the same token BTCST. If you invest in something you don't understand you might as well burn your money, the net effect will be identical  Wink

True, but I do think we reserve jerk status for the Enrons and Madoffs of the world (I will hold off pre-emptively judging the pirate).
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 05, 2012, 12:59:16 PM
#46
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?

Everyone could just call their coins back.


Why would they when they are essentially in cahoots with the pirate and making good money?

Because when pirate makes a really bad bet (JPMorgan Chase style and he will one day) he will probably default.  Then everyone will lose a portion if not all of their money, and Pirate will be labeled a ponzi scammer even if he is not.  When it gets to serious cash like this then it is hard to come back from big falls.  If he lost a little before he could pay back out of his own funds to make up for a profit later on, but a loss that he can't handle will doom the whole operation.  All of pirate's creditors could do the same thing he is doing except without the manipulation and potentially make more than 7% a week.  I don't borrow or loan money anyway and I will only invest with people or institutions that are transparent, but I would hate for this to hurt the bitcoin economy and tie a lot of people's coins in limbo like with Bitcoinica.
At the end of the day, if you put your money in a black box and get ripped off, it's your own damn fault.
It's very difficult to feel sorry for the investors in Enron, Madoff, or by the same token BTCST. If you invest in something you don't understand you might as well burn your money, the net effect will be identical  Wink

People (the majority )  may be stupid when it comes to financial investments but i dont think that automaticaly means they deserve to be  led into ponzi's and other types of scam
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 05, 2012, 12:41:48 PM
#45
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?

Everyone could just call their coins back.


Why would they when they are essentially in cahoots with the pirate and making good money?

Because when pirate makes a really bad bet (JPMorgan Chase style and he will one day) he will probably default.  Then everyone will lose a portion if not all of their money, and Pirate will be labeled a ponzi scammer even if he is not.  When it gets to serious cash like this then it is hard to come back from big falls.  If he lost a little before he could pay back out of his own funds to make up for a profit later on, but a loss that he can't handle will doom the whole operation.  All of pirate's creditors could do the same thing he is doing except without the manipulation and potentially make more than 7% a week.  I don't borrow or loan money anyway and I will only invest with people or institutions that are transparent, but I would hate for this to hurt the bitcoin economy and tie a lot of people's coins in limbo like with Bitcoinica.
At the end of the day, if you put your money in a black box and get ripped off, it's your own damn fault.
It's very difficult to feel sorry for the investors in Enron, Madoff, or by the same token BTCST. If you invest in something you don't understand you might as well burn your money, the net effect will be identical  Wink
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 05, 2012, 12:05:32 PM
#44
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?

Everyone could just call their coins back.


Why would they when they are essentially in cahoots with the pirate and making good money?

Because when pirate makes a really bad bet (JPMorgan Chase style and he will one day) he will probably default.  Then everyone will lose a portion if not all of their money, and Pirate will be labeled a ponzi scammer even if he is not.  When it gets to serious cash like this then it is hard to come back from big falls.  If he lost a little before he could pay back out of his own funds to make up for a profit later on, but a loss that he can't handle will doom the whole operation.  All of pirate's creditors could do the same thing he is doing except without the manipulation and potentially make more than 7% a week.  I don't borrow or loan money anyway and I will only invest with people or institutions that are transparent, but I would hate for this to hurt the bitcoin economy and tie a lot of people's coins in limbo like with Bitcoinica.

+1
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
August 04, 2012, 10:52:24 PM
#43
You see Pirate behind everything.  Cast your net wider.

True. Bitcoin is a traders wet dream. Sheep playing the market and no SEC.
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
August 04, 2012, 10:15:07 PM
#42
He'd need to be making in excess of BTC30000 profit per week to make this thing a legit business.

The best case scenario for Pirate's creditors is Pirate greatly lowers his payout.  7% per week or whatever people were mentioning last week is unsustainable.  It simply cannot be done.  Anyone believing a 7% weekly return is possible from any investment will quickly be parted from their money by get rich quick schemes.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 04, 2012, 10:10:15 PM
#41
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?

Everyone could just call their coins back.


Why would they when they are essentially in cahoots with the pirate and making good money?

Because when pirate makes a really bad bet (JPMorgan Chase style and he will one day) he will probably default.  Then everyone will lose a portion if not all of their money, and Pirate will be labeled a ponzi scammer even if he is not.  When it gets to serious cash like this then it is hard to come back from big falls.  If he lost a little before he could pay back out of his own funds to make up for a profit later on, but a loss that he can't handle will doom the whole operation.  All of pirate's creditors could do the same thing he is doing except without the manipulation and potentially make more than 7% a week.  I don't borrow or loan money anyway and I will only invest with people or institutions that are transparent, but I would hate for this to hurt the bitcoin economy and tie a lot of people's coins in limbo like with Bitcoinica.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 04, 2012, 10:06:52 PM
#40
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?
How?
He'd need to be making in excess of BTC30000 profit per week to make this thing a legit business.
Check out the volume on Gox. If you were on the right side of every single move the market makes and made up 50% of the entire gox volume, you wouldn't make that. So where's he making that? The silk road doesn't even make that amount of profit.
It just isn't possible to make the numbers fit anymore. If anyone can work out a way that fits within the basic confines of reality that'd give 30000BTC per week whilst having no known customers and no obvious signs of market activity then please do tell.

He does not have to make a profit every week.  One week he might lose 5% but the still owe's his creditors 7%.  Then the next week he might make 20%, enough to cover the 2nd week and the negative funds from the first week.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 04, 2012, 10:03:48 PM
#39
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?
How?
He'd need to be making in excess of BTC30000 profit per week to make this thing a legit business.
Check out the volume on Gox. If you were on the right side of every single move the market makes and made up 50% of the entire gox volume, you wouldn't make that. So where's he making that? The silk road doesn't even make that amount of profit.
It just isn't possible to make the numbers fit anymore. If anyone can work out a way that fits within the basic confines of reality that'd give 30000BTC per week whilst having no known customers and no obvious signs of market activity then please do tell.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
August 04, 2012, 09:54:38 PM
#38
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?

Everyone could just call their coins back.


Why would they when they are essentially in cahoots with the pirate and making good money?
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 04, 2012, 09:35:01 PM
#37
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?

Everyone could just call their coins back.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
August 04, 2012, 09:24:52 PM
#36
So pirate has borrowed enough coins to give him the weight to manipulate the market and thus profit enough from his up an down game to pay off his lenders and make profit?
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 04, 2012, 08:16:15 PM
#35
Most of the rally was for shits and grins.  If you're buying at these prices, you're making a mistake.

And if you are selling at these prices?
aq
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
August 04, 2012, 04:44:32 PM
#34
So what is the estimated amount that is in the Pirate fund?

500k btc.
Then why does he only pay 7% a week. Lately he revealed to buy 18650BTC per day on average. So that would be more like 26%, and still he pays only 7% Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
August 04, 2012, 04:44:07 PM
#33
So what is the estimated amount that is in the Pirate fund?

500k btc.

Note that such high estimates are paper coin estimates. I doubt BS&T collected so many actual BTC. We just see interest on former interest, and probably neither ever really existed.

Juggling coins to investors and receiving them back again as re-investment makes the impression of more coins being "inside". This can repeat for quite a while until people notice.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
August 04, 2012, 03:40:36 PM
#32
So what is the estimated amount that is in the Pirate fund?

500k btc.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 04, 2012, 03:31:53 PM
#31
So what is the estimated amount that is in the Pirate fund?
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 501
There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.
August 04, 2012, 03:12:46 PM
#30
i think if pirate returned everyones coins

Where would these coins come from? After interest payouts that already happened?
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 04, 2012, 02:40:45 PM
#29
The case that would crash the price the most would be if pirate shuts down his operation and returns everyone's money.  This would result in a huge supply to sell and a bunch of people looking to take profits.

thats assuming everyone would sell ..........

i think if pirate returned everyones coins many people would look for some other way to grow their balance by investing in something else ,even a mining op which pays 1-2 % a week would probably be overloaded with newcomers

thats assuming the btcst doesnt default though and thats a pretty big assumption when you think about those glorious interest rates ......Smiley

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
August 04, 2012, 01:54:47 PM
#28
The case that would crash the price the most would be if pirate shuts down his operation and returns everyone's money.  This would result in a huge supply to sell and a bunch of people looking to take profits.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
August 04, 2012, 03:52:39 AM
#27
If this rally is indeed a bubble created by gullible "investors" entering the BTC market in order to "invest" in Pirate's scheme, it's going to be hilarious when the bubble collapses and everyone who bought high first withdraws from Pirate and then sells quickly, triggering the collapse of Pirate's ponzi scheme. Here's to hoping that the bubble takes BTC price to unprecedented highs!

Lol I can actually see this happening
hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
August 04, 2012, 03:38:56 AM
#26
If this rally is indeed a bubble created by gullible "investors" entering the BTC market in order to "invest" in Pirate's scheme, it's going to be hilarious when the bubble collapses and everyone who bought high first withdraws from Pirate and then sells quickly, triggering the collapse of Pirate's ponzi scheme. Here's to hoping that the bubble takes BTC price to unprecedented highs!
legendary
Activity: 1304
Merit: 1015
August 02, 2012, 11:45:43 PM
#25
there are some strong hands holding onto BTC and the reward for mining has not even cut in half

Wonder how many people read my 9 June 2012 post before all this got started.

You also warned us not to pay too much for bitcoins.  You being a lawyer I can understand why you would say too opposite views in a subtle way such that you cant be wrong. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 11:01:02 PM
#24
Stop spamming your post everywhere. Roll Eyes

Not until after BTC hits about $13....  Wink
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 02, 2012, 10:45:18 PM
#23
One more thing, my new best guess for when pirate defaults is when we see a correction in the bitcoin price. Not mini-corrections in the uptrend, but a deeper correction followed by a trend reversal. This would be analogous to all the Wall Street ponzis which collapsed in 2008 when the stock prices reverses. Fear gripped the market, depositors wanted to withdraw from funds, and those withdraws exposed the ponzis.

That would be the latest estimate for when he defaults (most certainly before oct 2013), but of course it could be any time.

A Pirate default would likely to be triggered by a sharp increase in the BTC / USD price and in many scenarios could even trigger a BTC buying panic rather than a crash. De-leveraging makes the remaining currency more valuable not less so. During the recent downturn in 2008 prices went down making cash in the form of say USD more valuable. By the way I believe this rally is in spite of Pirate not because of him.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 06:36:09 PM
#22
One more thing, my new best guess for when pirate defaults is when we see a correction in the bitcoin price. Not mini-corrections in the uptrend, but a deeper correction followed by a trend reversal. This would be analogous to all the Wall Street ponzis which collapsed in 2008 when the stock prices reverses. Fear gripped the market, depositors wanted to withdraw from funds, and those withdraws exposed the ponzis.

That would be the latest estimate for when he defaults (most certainly before oct 2013), but of course it could be any time.

This is a very interesting thought. I did not know of that 2008 chain reaction, but it makes sense! The type of herd behavior is the same, so the withdrawals might correlate very well with trend-following sales.

Thanks for sharing this.

So now Pirate's Ponzi is fucked if the prices go UP and when they go DOWN! lol
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
What's a GPU?
August 02, 2012, 06:35:48 PM
#21
What if we start a new thread trying to get people to pledge to withdraw 50k coins from pirate on a certain date, September 1 for instance. This would create lots of fear of a collapsing ponzi therefore even more withdrawals than the pledged amount. If Pirate would not be able to take the loss (because of a ponzi), he would simply stop allowing withdrawals and run, probably a day or two before the planned mass withdrawal.

How many coins does he have, anyway?
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
August 02, 2012, 06:29:04 PM
#20
One more thing, my new best guess for when pirate defaults is when we see a correction in the bitcoin price. Not mini-corrections in the uptrend, but a deeper correction followed by a trend reversal. This would be analogous to all the Wall Street ponzis which collapsed in 2008 when the stock prices reverses. Fear gripped the market, depositors wanted to withdraw from funds, and those withdraws exposed the ponzis.

That would be the latest estimate for when he defaults (most certainly before oct 2013), but of course it could be any time.

This is a very interesting thought. I did not know of that 2008 chain reaction, but it makes sense! The type of herd behavior is the same, so the withdrawals might correlate very well with trend-following sales.

Thanks for sharing this.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1002
August 02, 2012, 06:17:23 PM
#19
there are some strong hands holding onto BTC and the reward for mining has not even cut in half

Wonder how many people read my 9 June 2012 post before all this got started.

Stop spamming your post everywhere. Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 06:11:30 PM
#18
there are some strong hands holding onto BTC and the reward for mining has not even cut in half

Wonder how many people read my 9 June 2012 post before all this got started.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
August 02, 2012, 06:04:42 PM
#17
One more thing, my new best guess for when pirate defaults is when we see a correction in the bitcoin price. Not mini-corrections in the uptrend, but a deeper correction followed by a trend reversal. This would be analogous to all the Wall Street ponzis which collapsed in 2008 when the stock prices reverses. Fear gripped the market, depositors wanted to withdraw from funds, and those withdraws exposed the ponzis.

That would be the latest estimate for when he defaults (most certainly before oct 2013), but of course it could be any time.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
August 02, 2012, 05:56:34 PM
#16
there are still new people "investing" in pirate? i had the impression that the "market" is already saturated, and some believe that his "default" is imminent.

Well, some people were withdrawing (eg MageD) and everybody was nervous about his vegas meet-up. Since it seems to have taken place, its likely there will be a wave of new investors. But that doesn't mean default is no longer imminent, indeed it could very well be. It just depends on the market (both the PPT market and the bitcoin market) and pirate's exit strategy.


The increase in price is not due to an increase in the exchange of goods and services for bitcoins or favorable news, the two traditional causes for rallies.

Everyone is buying BTC to get in on pirate's scheme, pirate passthroughs, and other pirate like "lending" schemes.

Obviously earning 3300% a year on BTC is more attractive than 0-10%/year with USD.

The entire bitcoin economy is shifting towards lending and various financial instruments.

If pirate were to default, would the price crash?  There would certainly be less incentive to buy BTC.  Of course, pirate might have all of the coins by then... so there might not be many sellers.

There is an unhealthy amount of lending schemes going on right now, but I think you might be overestimating the proportion of new buyers they are attracting.

I see evidence for a variety of new investors: the reuters article mentioning the ip addresses of wall street firms visiting mtgox at the beginning of the year, silk road forum post count supposedly 50% of the bitcointalk post count, butterfly labs mining investments, coinLab investment by Ycombinator.

The fact that price has held up so well against the utter vaporization of bitcoinica shows that the bitcoin is market is more resilient and decentralized than I had anticipated (unfortunately for myself, 20% of my funds were in a long position on bitcoinica). So I don't think that a crash of pirate's scheme would affect the market. And actualy from that, one can infer the converse that the success of his scheme is not what's currently driving the price increase. I may be way underestimating the size of his scheme, but I think its fair to say that bitcoinica had a far greater market penetration than pirate does. Of course, MtGox remains the greatest centralized point of risk to the bitcoin price.

legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 02, 2012, 05:49:54 PM
#15
I wonder if pirate is the US government trying to buy up as many BTC as possible. They can afford to pay out 7% with their fiat.
+1

there are some strong hands holding onto BTC and the reward for mining has not even cut in half
hahahaohwow.jpg
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 05:30:35 PM
#14
I wonder if pirate is the US government trying to buy up as many BTC as possible. They can afford to pay out 7% with their fiat.

Let me be the first to have the honor to welcome you to the halls of this forum, kind Sir!
hero member
Activity: 486
Merit: 500
August 02, 2012, 05:14:05 PM
#13
I wonder if pirate is the US government trying to buy up as many BTC as possible. They can afford to pay out 7% with their fiat.
+1

there are some strong hands holding onto BTC and the reward for mining has not even cut in half
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1007
August 02, 2012, 05:11:53 PM
#12
there are still new people "investing" in pirate? i had the impression that the "market" is already saturated, and some believe that his "default" is imminent.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
August 02, 2012, 05:10:51 PM
#11
I wonder if pirate is the US government trying to buy up as many BTC as possible. They can afford to pay out 7% with their fiat.
hero member
Activity: 486
Merit: 500
August 02, 2012, 04:58:01 PM
#10
nahhh just a over due correction, How many bought again higher than 10 when you sold below 9.50, supply and demand, we are in a bull market, wish I can enjoy this run but most of my bitcoins is trapped with bitcoinica
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
August 02, 2012, 04:54:26 PM
#9
impressive :-)
full member
Activity: 184
Merit: 100
Feel the coffee, be the coffee.
August 02, 2012, 04:17:21 PM
#8
this rally is not a pirate bubble
this rally is a pirate bubble
this rally is maybe a pirate bubble

Schrödinger's bubble ?
full member
Activity: 134
Merit: 100
August 02, 2012, 04:08:19 PM
#7
That may well be, but anyway, this rally doesn't sees to have hit the PPTs on the exchange. Prices there don't look especially high at the moment.
But if you're right, could be people are looking to deposit directly instead of through the pass-throughs of course.
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
August 02, 2012, 03:12:54 PM
#6

Everyone is buying BTC to get in on pirate's scheme, pirate passthroughs, and other pirate like "lending" schemes.


If pirate is selling them again, as many assume, those bitcoins are already back in the market.
donator
Activity: 853
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 03:11:22 PM
#5
The entire bitcoin economy is shifting towards lending and various financial instruments.

True, but isn't this a healthy sign? I mean, even in the gold-backed-money days, didn't most people keep their money in a bank which lent it out to earn interest?

The great thing about bitcoin, though, is that unlike fiat money, you're aren't forced to lend it or suffer loss of purchasing power. Due to its deflationary nature, with BTC you can take the risk of lending, or you can just hold it directly with essentially zero risk. Everybody wins Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
August 02, 2012, 03:10:15 PM
#4
this rally is not a pirate bubble
this rally is a pirate bubble
this rally is maybe a pirate bubble
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
August 02, 2012, 02:53:40 PM
#3
If you're right, his interest rates will fall until he only has as much BTC as he needs.  If he's generous (and selective), he may just limit deposits and new accounts.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1006
Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.
August 02, 2012, 02:45:49 PM
#2
Oh so you mean, it's an end to itself. This could get dirty when the bitcoin generation rate halves.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 02:44:16 PM
#1
The increase in price is not due to an increase in the exchange of goods and services for bitcoins or favorable news, the two traditional causes for rallies.

Everyone is buying BTC to get in on pirate's scheme, pirate passthroughs, and other pirate like "lending" schemes.

Obviously earning 3300% a year on BTC is more attractive than 0-10%/year with USD.

The entire bitcoin economy is shifting towards lending and various financial instruments.

If pirate were to default, would the price crash?  There would certainly be less incentive to buy BTC.  Of course, pirate might have all of the coins by then... so there might not be many sellers.
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