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Topic: Those that dream of $1200/bitcoin can thank this man. (Read 2568 times)

legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
every year 5% of bitcoins are lost

Yeah, and 80% of all quoted statistics are made up. Care to show your work?

edit: reading downthread, I see that showing your work seems to consist of quoting some not-very-credible anecdotes from the popular press.

Interested no longer. Carry on.

i though the same thing, he is copy pasting bullshit that can not be seen as a good metric ever, and he wants to pass that as a good source to know about the right % of the lost coins, which at present is impossible to determine no matter what method you use

he seems to not understand this and he call the other ignorant, how hilarious..
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 1660
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
every year 5% of bitcoins are lost

Yeah, and 80% of all quoted statistics are made up. Care to show your work?

edit: reading downthread, I see that showing your work seems to consist of quoting some not-very-credible anecdotes from the popular press.

Interested no longer. Carry on.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1007
I think we must forget about price back to 1200 it's time for wake up from your dream. Bitcoin is never again reach to $1200

additional note: when you see one price on exchange A at $300 and on  exchange B at $270 ... of course you would want to buy the bitcoins at EXCHANGE B for $270 and sell it higher at EXCHANGE A for $300 so that's how prices are influenced at different exchanges ...


I never see range price too deep like that, the best range is $5-$7 at different exchanges

Really?? ..

recently Chinese bitcoin exchanges were like 30--60$ usd higher than the USD exchanges ... pretty crazy case of arbitrage there =]  (cny exchanges were $350 usd and  ... usd exchanges were $290-$300 per bitcoin)

that difference in price was only there for a very short time. no chance for traders on other exchanges to benefit from the crazy difference.

Yeah moving funds around mostly takes too long.. Before you can acces them again and stuff. On top of that, you have your withdrawel fees that hurt your profit.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
I think we must forget about price back to 1200 it's time for wake up from your dream. Bitcoin is never again reach to $1200

additional note: when you see one price on exchange A at $300 and on  exchange B at $270 ... of course you would want to buy the bitcoins at EXCHANGE B for $270 and sell it higher at EXCHANGE A for $300 so that's how prices are influenced at different exchanges ...


I never see range price too deep like that, the best range is $5-$7 at different exchanges

Really?? ..

recently Chinese bitcoin exchanges were like 30--60$ usd higher than the USD exchanges ... pretty crazy case of arbitrage there =]  (cny exchanges were $350 usd and  ... usd exchanges were $290-$300 per bitcoin)

that difference in price was only there for a very short time. no chance for traders on other exchanges to benefit from the crazy difference.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
I think we must forget about price back to 1200 it's time for wake up from your dream. Bitcoin is never again reach to $1200

additional note: when you see one price on exchange A at $300 and on  exchange B at $270 ... of course you would want to buy the bitcoins at EXCHANGE B for $270 and sell it higher at EXCHANGE A for $300 so that's how prices are influenced at different exchanges ...


I never see range price too deep like that, the best range is $5-$7 at different exchanges

Really?? ..

recently Chinese bitcoin exchanges were like 30--60$ usd higher than the USD exchanges ... pretty crazy case of arbitrage there =]  (cny exchanges were $350 usd and  ... usd exchanges were $290-$300 per bitcoin)
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
Me, myself and I
I think we must forget about price back to 1200 it's time for wake up from your dream. Bitcoin is never again reach to $1200

additional note: when you see one price on exchange A at $300 and on  exchange B at $270 ... of course you would want to buy the bitcoins at EXCHANGE B for $270 and sell it higher at EXCHANGE A for $300 so that's how prices are influenced at different exchanges ...


I never see range price too deep like that, the best range is $5-$7 at different exchanges
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
a bot that was a small percentage of MtGox's volume, could really single-handedly incite an entire bubble when there were at least 2 or 3 other similarly sized exchanges?


There were and still are MULTIPLE bots on the exchanges til this day...

on bitstamp/bitfinex you'll see 50 btc blocks of bid orders being added and removed every few seconds blinking in and out of price ranges ...

sidenote: review the links about mtgox trade forensic analysis of it ...

Also at the time bitstamp and btce were playing "catch up" to mtgox's higher pricing ... which is why they had a higher percentage of the "market volume" because of manipulation and pooling of users ...

additional note: when you see one price on exchange A at $300 and on  exchange B at $270 ... of course you would want to buy the bitcoins at EXCHANGE B for $270 and sell it higher at EXCHANGE A for $300 so that's how prices are influenced at different exchanges ...

Additional side note: It's called an arbitrage equilibrium... where when supply on one route is listed at a lesser price and the demand on another route has a higher listed price meaning  those prices have to meet at some point "catching up" to the appropriate levels...

ALSO to roadbits  since you had asked the question of "how it could really single-handedly... incite a bubble at '2-3' other similarly sized exchanges" ... well now you know and since you failed to understand that prior you must be one of those that are unacknowledged of actual financial assets =/

please take that time to actually learn about the validity of an asset etc..
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
a bot that was a small percentage of MtGox's volume, could really single-handedly incite an entire bubble when there were at least 2 or 3 other similarly sized exchanges?
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
I think you misunderstood the meaning of my words , .... and there were days during the pump and manipulation where MTGOX's market volume was above 70% and take the time to look at historical data of exchange volumes....
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250


The historical data for mtgox has been archived somewhere but here is a chart of the volume data ...

and the 70-80% market share was active during the death spiral of MTGox itself ... after "withdrawls" were being held was when they saw the most drastic changes in their daily volume and epople started switching over immediately... but some didn't as other exchanges had lower volume , liquidity , and prices...


Additional source on the manipulation http://bitcoin.stamen.com/

I show you that mtgox was less than 50% of trading volume before the chinese came and took a huge percentage.

You reply with a chart from 2 years prior to the events we are talking about, followed by some hand waving.

Citation still needed.

legendary
Activity: 2002
Merit: 1040
Wait, your therealistmassiah1? Then who is therealistmassiah?  Shocked

Won't the real therealistmassiah please stand up.  Roll Eyes Tongue
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
https://i.imgur.com/Yw81i.png

The historical data for mtgox has been archived somewhere but here is a chart of the volume data ...

and the 70-80% market share was active during the death spiral of MTGox itself ... after "withdrawls" were being held was when they saw the most drastic changes in their daily volume and epople started switching over immediately... but some didn't as other exchanges had lower volume , liquidity , and prices...


Additional source on the manipulation http://bitcoin.stamen.com/
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
MassiahofRealist: Citation needed for "at least 70-80%"

From August 2013:


Chinese trading volume only went up from here, so...
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
There are a ton of speculative theories on Willy's purpose, but it's basically impossible to know ,even if there was a bot, it's highly unlikely that it was solely responsible for the rise in price.

To Foxbitcoin Sigh.... its the mass's and mass's of people like you that are uneducated and unwilling to do the research that makes the  understanding of bitcoin really difficult ...

Like the blind leading the blind (uneducated leading the uneducated) ... leads to more misunderstandings..

.... here are a few articles on the topic of WILLY BOT and other manipulation trades ....

https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-at-mt-gox-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-of-bitcoin/

http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/


Sidenote: take the time to actually learn more about the reason why bitcoin reached 1200$/btc in the first place and the realization that bitcoin is a contract(commodity) / non tangible asset account which is used to transact between the exchange of a good and currency not currency itself ... look through my past posts to read more into it...

Addition: to Cconvert2G36 , in some part yes it did bring in the "lemmings" that decide to jump off the cliff with the crowd fueled "hype" towards $1200 ... but it was mostly due in part to WILLY BOT and other manipulation

since there was approximately addition of thousands of "investors" that poured in their money into bitcoin.

Addition: to gentlemand You are correct Mtgox WAS THE BIGGEST player... by a FAR FAR FAR MARGIN ... at the time they had a market grasp of atleast 70-80% at the time of the markets volume of trades if not even more at the hype due to "willy bot and manipulated trades"
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
There are a ton of speculative theories on Willy's purpose, but it's basically impossible to know ,even if there was a bot, it's highly unlikely that it was solely responsible for the rise in price.

It didn't have to be solely responsible, it simply needed to tip the balance of supply & demand in the northward direction. Euphoria, greed, and fresh chinese gamblers do the rest.  
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
Lots of elements were culpable in the rises but it's hard to deny that Gox would've been a major player, especially April 2013 when it was still the biggest game in town by a mile.

As for November I'm sure it added plenty of fire but China certainly stoked it and then human nature carried the torch to infinity.

Anyway I'll see if I can sell some old crap on Ebay and buy a coin off someone for $1200 in public just for a sniff of the good old times.
sr. member
Activity: 593
Merit: 250
There are a ton of speculative theories on Willy's purpose, but it's basically impossible to know ,even if there was a bot, it's highly unlikely that it was solely responsible for the rise in price.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Mickeyb, did you just read the first post and decide to yourself that... that post was the best to fit your brain's directive thinking and should be the basis for your response??

and then to comment with something that doesn't make any sense to his post of "1 million doesnt equate to 10-1200 2013"Huh

I did clarify on the basics of Mark Karpeles changing the accounting in the system to generate additional PHANTOM assets by adding a few 0's to the end of an account and in doing so he created $1,000,000+ in extra phantom assets... also including the fact of WILLY BOT...
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Move On !!!!!!
1 million would not be enough to create the rise from 10 to 1200 in 2013

Exactly, these are just haters that cheer up every bad news about Bitcoin in the press, etc. They are not realizing that this is actually good for Bitcoin, this arrest. You need to clean up your yard before you start looking forward and this is exactly what is been done at the moment.

Bitcoin will be just fine, don't you people worry!
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
To remember that big businesses are accepting bitcoin to sell their products. Microsoft, Dell or another monsters of business are not stupid that accept bitcoin at the place of the fiat money. If the bitcoin has not perspective they lost money and they are not so stupid to accept this.
Do you want to know the truth??? ...

the amount of legitimate "transactions" for businesses through bitcoin is humiliating and depressingly small ... and those companies "accept bitcoin" for free publicity and press but to be honest it doesn't do JACK SQUAT for their business ...

they also LIQUIDATE the bitcoin IMMEDIATELY so that they assure that they have cash on hand for that transaction... so they pretty much use bitcoin as a facilitating contract transaction with a smaller clearing house for the payments ....

Addition: http://www.businessinsider.com/dell-becomes-biggest-company-to-accept-bitcoin-internationally-2015-2

Their biggest purchase from bitcoin was a "$50,000" purchase for a server using BITCOIN ... you know how SMALL of a purchase that is ...

that is BARELY even a SERVER RACK ... which a fully optimized rack would go for $200,000 -$400,000 and companies spend $1,000,000++ on one purchase from DELL not $50,000 that's like a drop compared to a full gallon of water.
I don't think you understood what it means to "create $1 million" ...  

The CEO created 1 million dollars in "assets" by himself aka you changing a few digits along with other factors like WILLY BOT ... which is well documented

Also to n2004al ... please relearn about supply and demand and the "death spiral" of assets .... every year 5% of bitcoins are lost and that's year over year so thus far a total of 30% of ALL bitcoins to date are "LOST" ...

which means that the price shouldn't be at "2xx" levels ... and from your speculation I don't think you understand how many people actually put bitcoin into use in terms of active wallets and total amount of wallets with 1 bitcoin or more ...


5% of bitcoins lost every year?

Where did you get the number from?

Seriously... Do you not do any research at all Brewins?Huh

 take some time out of your day to enlighten yourself about assets especially about depreciation assets that don't regenerate ...

here are some articles for you:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11362827/The-625m-lost-forever-the-phenomenon-of-disappearing-Bitcoins.html

https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/rise-of-the-zombie-bitcoins


Side note: for brewins , if you have no clue about any of these metrics you are far out of the game like most of the people in bitcoin are...

no you can't simply trust random source and say they are right, at present there is no good way to determinate how many coins are lost each year and surely not in such a precisely way, like you said 5%...

there is only a roughly estimate about that numbers, which is probably wrong by a long shot, and anyway the lost coins will not affect the market so much, as many think, a 50% loss will equated a 100% more price nothing more

so 30% loss is equal to a less than +50% in price

https://i.imgur.com/PZljCvE.png
^^^^^^^Addition: Knowing how lazy many of you are to read the article here is one of the many charts.

AMPH, You litterally didn't even read through the ARTICLE ....

How I can tell ...
because if you did then you can tell that by using statistics and date/data analysis of wallets and "inactive vs active accounts" using a regression charts back to 2010 and before then ... and from there you can extrapolate from that data... if you had any brains to understand metrics and data you would be able to understand the concept. But I can tell that from your past post that you are full bullish for bitcoin and have this cover of wool over your eyes to shield it from anything that you don't want to accept... but it all basically comes down to the numbers ... also in the articles the engineer basically points out those facts for you and accounting for cold storage and coin washing ... etc

TO MIRACAL What will be the incentive for miners within the next 5-10 years as the halvings and difficulty gets higher?? and then what happens when the rewards gets to 6btc or even 1 btc or less?? who would be paying those cost for the miners? Also I am sure you have heard of the quote "The future of money is not bitcoin and the future of bitcoin is not money" and bitcoin is not money in fact(look up my previous post I have several covering that topic) ... also  the infrastructure for bitcoin , even though its "decentralized" runs into exchanges and miner guilds in order to keep it running what happens when ONE or even BOTH fails?!?! what then?? And currently only 250,000 active bitcoin users with a wallet of 1.5 bitcoins or more... so purely all that exchange of bitcoin on the exchanges for those prices are ... well you guessed it! manipulated by the short flow of bitcoins in the exchange!

side note: Amph you should really  read those articles because you sound ignorant when responding without even reading or having the prior knowledge of the articles when commenting....


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