About plots
- The two plots show how people are more actively creating new users on the forum especially since December 2020.
- You can easily see this fact from how the boxes explode in the last 3 months (November 2020 to January 2021 - incomplete month).
- They are mainly or partially come from the SEO-attacks.
- The last plot (for 2020 only) gives a better visual view, after excludes the extraordinary upsurge in January 2021
As of writing, the forum has
2983322 members totally, according to
Stats centerNow, let's go to some available stats and small estimation.
- Required new members to hit 3th million record: 16678.
- In median of 16 days in January of 2021 (p50 value in the raw result table): there is 1911 new members daily. The max value is 11413.
- So if this parameter (new daily members) won't break it record in 2021 at 11413, the forum will need more than 24 hours (~ 1.47 days) to hit the 3th million users.
- If it fluctuates around the median (1911), it might takes up to 8.73 days (~ 9 days) with the range of estimation based on interquartile range (939 to 4893 that are p25 and p75 values respectively) will be 3.41 days to 17.8 days.
- To recap, there is a 50% that it would take the forum from 3.41 days to 17.8 days (based on the interquartile range) to hit 3th million member record. The most likely waiting time is 8.73 days (based on the median)
Summary for variables: n_mem
by categories of: m
m | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m7 | 30.0 379.6 48.6 386.0 351.0 402.0 277.0 501.0
2020m8 | 31.0 395.6 85.3 386.0 333.0 423.0 284.0 660.0
2020m9 | 30.0 393.4 70.8 406.5 342.0 454.0 256.0 510.0
2020m10 | 31.0 416.9 166.2 372.0 338.0 429.0 266.0 1018.0
2020m11 | 30.0 588.2 193.3 507.0 428.0 703.0 384.0 1014.0
2020m12 | 31.0 1886.3 1549.2 1483.0 1003.0 2424.0 554.0 9060.0
2021m1 | 16.0 3153.4 3114.7 1911.0 939.0 4892.5 575.0 11413.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 199.0 879.2 1357.8 424.0 369.0 740.0 256.0 11413.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How about daily new posts?
In contrast to daily new members, the statistic for total of daily new posts reached its peak in December 2020, not in January of 2021. Below are some plots and stats. Data interpretation can make in the same way above.
Possible reasons:
- New members (spammers) are faster dectected and nuked in Jan 2021, so they can not abuse as long as in December 2020.
- Those members are created and currently inactive, to prepare for future spam attacks.
Raw results
Summary for variables: n_posts
by categories of: m
m | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m7 | 30.0 6382.6 586.7 6477.5 6175.0 6724.0 5091.0 7534.0
2020m8 | 31.0 6270.6 283.6 6299.0 6068.0 6460.0 5606.0 6820.0
2020m9 | 30.0 6290.3 527.1 6259.0 5888.0 6659.0 5477.0 7628.0
2020m10 | 31.0 6498.0 513.7 6445.0 6134.0 6840.0 5462.0 7909.0
2020m11 | 30.0 7556.1 642.0 7647.0 7238.0 8006.0 5756.0 8621.0
2020m12 | 31.0 8554.2 1310.5 8176.0 7633.0 9161.0 6738.0 11538.0
2021m1 | 16.0 7902.0 743.1 7747.5 7287.0 8106.5 7133.0 9653.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 199.0 7006.6 1119.5 6718.0 6247.0 7633.0 5091.0 11538.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Details
+-----------------------------+
| date n_mem n_posts |
|-----------------------------|
185. | 01jan2021 5871 7840 |
186. | 02jan2021 1891 7294 |
187. | 03jan2021 3914 9653 |
188. | 04jan2021 2481 9331 |
189. | 05jan2021 2121 8009 |
190. | 06jan2021 1699 7710 |
191. | 07jan2021 1624 7878 |
192. | 08jan2021 1252 8204 |
193. | 09jan2021 5951 7661 |
194. | 10jan2021 7917 7133 |
195. | 11jan2021 576 7280 |
196. | 12jan2021 612 7785 |
197. | 13jan2021 626 7207 |
198. | 14jan2021 575 7268 |
199. | 15jan2021 11413 8662 |
200. | 16jan2021 1931 7517 |
+-----------------------------+
Recent rises and spikes from daily new members, daily new posts, and woke-up cases probably come from same or different companies. The common thing is they come from spammers or people want to do attacks on the forum, try to compromise the forum for their own jobs.