Topic: Throwing in the towel - page 3. (Read 12673 times)

If MtGox was to offer much a lower fees on much higher volume of transaction that could stimulate the creation of other exchanges.

Exchanges like Bitcoinica but with actual reserve and USD processing.

Mid-term and long-term are very different animals. I agree that $10 is a sane target for the mid-term but from a long-term perspective that is a very low target. Remember where the price was one year from now and also remember that every downtrend has bottomed higher than the one before that.

I agree with you that if the price went below $3 it would be a very serious issue. The long-term picture would be disrupted. But if it doesn't, we could definitely make a new all-time high within the next 12 months and we could test $100 within 24 months. In 5 years, how about the moon ($1000+)?

I also believe that the price is based on fundamentals in the end. Technicals and the way published technical analysis manipulates people into buying and selling only accelerates what is already there. I honestly can't see anything there right now that could lead to below $3 prices. Those prices are not realistic unless people seriously lose faith in Bitcoin at the same time.

Only what I call a serious event could cause this and make even people like me doubt the long-term picture. This would undoubtedly cause a price drop to below $3. An event like this would need to be very serious though, the stuff that has happened recently are very insignificant.

nevertheless the midterm and the longterm look much more like 10$ than like 40$ now.

Tradehill shutting down and Mt. Gox shutting down are two very different scenarios. Neither event kills Bitcoin but the latter would cause a total crash in price and Bitcoin adoption would take a huge step back. However there is absolutely no reason to assume that Mt. Gox is having any trouble. It's important to remember that Tradehill was an US exchange, what is common between Mt. Gox, Intersango and Cryptoxchange? None of them operate in the US.

Mt. Gox has been handling its regulation related issues very nicely and has not had any trouble with its most important bank accounts and it has even had functioning SEPA deposits for a good while now. Intersango has functioning SEPA both ways and they have basically solved the issues related to their UK account and as far as I know Cryptoxchange is also running a very solid business.

Remember that Tradehill was only slightly bigger than Intersango and Cryptoxchange, the difference was not huge. Mt. Gox is on a totally different level. I see a promising future for Intersango and Cryptoxchange though, they are providing a great service especially for European Bitcoin users for which Tradehill was a MUCH crappier exchange overall.

Tradehill was clearly a declining exchange and nobody lost money in this process thanks to the admirable business practices of Tradehill. I can actually think of a good number of ways to look at this whole situation from a "glass half full" perspective.

1) We are seeing the emergence of solid, ethical business practices. The way Tradehill handled everything is admirable.

2) Even though the 2nd biggest exchange in the Bitcoin economy shut down, it didn't really change anything. We have come a long way and there are plenty of good alternatives to choose from.

3) Paxum ending their support for Bitcoin can be seen from a positive light as well, it seems like banks might be starting to think of Bitcoin as a threat. That means we might be making the transition from nothing to something. From usability perspective this doesn't change anything, Paxum isn't very relevant in the big picture. It's just one payment processor.

4) Combined these events, just like the MyBitcoin scam and the Mt. Gox hack back in the day (although these were MUCH more severe events), will add pressure to innovate. MyBitcoin's demise lead to more robust wallets which are both convenient and much safer. Mt. Gox hack lead to Mt. Gox taking their security seriously and other major exchanges have don so as well, with Tradehill and Intersango having clear security records.

With the announcement of p2pool and its huge success, the only part in the whole Bitcoin equation that is still too centralized is the exchanges. I think these recent issues will add further pressure to develop convenient p2p exchanges and convenient services of real life exchanging. I believe all of this will lead to good things eventually.

moar cheeep bitcoinzeees

also I have finally found the real satoshi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YkbgvRMpW0   

posted that before, sure my zhoutongisation had an effect on volatility

i call stable prices something different, but lol, ok.. -40% STABLE PRICES! rejoice!

nothing serious? Tradehill decided to shut down because of banking troubles. What is not to say Mtgox would suffer the safe fate? If Mtgox, went down that would pretty much cause bitcoin price to crash.

on my longterm strategy, to which i stick, a drop bellow $3 in this state of progress of bitcoin would be the first serious warning sign of the longterm strategy beeing invalid. so it changes something in my system, cause this possibility has just been enabled.

so i lower my longterm(4 years) goal from 23$ to 12$

prices may rise in future - sure. but abandon the skyrocket, 7.2 is mid-term(half year) goal for now, 23$ longterm goal.

Gewure, no offense, but you do realise you are contributing to the bitcoin price going more up and down, when your leveraged long get liquided. Luckily people like me stopped the fall at 4.2 - 4.4. If everyone did like you, the price would be a lot lower now. ( And gone up a lot more before the fall).  I am impressed at how stable the bitcoin price has been lately thought compared to how unknown the price really is.

+1

Nothing serious has happened from the perspective of Bitcoin's long term future. Absolutely nothing. I've never seen such overreaction that we have seen now, not even in the Bitcoin market. I agree that the worst damage from this is the price volatility itself but everyone involved with Bitcoin right now should know what to expect. I also tell everyone that I mention Bitcoin to, that they keep this in mind if they want to buy bitcoins.

I think the worst about this is people using Bitcoinica who should not be using Bitcoinica. Don't use it unless you know what you're doing and/or are prepared to take a total loss at any time without regret.

I can admit that I hold a fairly significant BTC position and it's worth less now, but I haven't sold anything nor am I planning to sell anything. Nothing has happened that would really worry me from a long term perspective. My position is not a leveraged position of course, it's a traditional one. I will never touch Bitcoinica.

im not crying, don't worry

i just lowered my exspectations on bitcoin. my mid term strategy turned out to be invalid. the last 3 months i sticked to it, thinking the market finaly is stable between 4.5 and 6 something. turned out to be invalid. i gave it about a 80% probability of not droping below 4.5 all the time, till yesterday.

was 4.5 to optimistic?! - not really i think. i underestimated the bitcoin-speculator induced volatility.
the next days will show us further what the future of bitcoin will look like; if i think of it idealistic, that is the way i would like to see bitcoin in the future, i really really really hope it does not break bellow $3.

am i overemotional if i call 'bitcoins dead' into mind again if prices go bellow $3?! i don't know if such price movement can go on, without doing severe longterm damage to bitcoins reputation and the economy.

i will suspend my trading untill i have found my new mid term strategy, paraipan.

maybe you should take a break gewure, seriously, a few months for example. You are free to ignore my advice but i know for sure not all of us can stand pressure the same way

i DO something besides speculating. i hoard, i buy stuff, i buy stocks on glbse, i spread bitcoin-propaganda wherever i come to, i even trade some goods to friends for bitcoin.

my frustration is only partly cause i lost that 27 coins or how much they were, its mostly because of lost confidence in the bitcoin future. how shall bitcoin reach a broader public and increase in usabillity, when still prices drop that brutal?! .. if you come across this forum, you get a pretty zynical and pessimist view on bitcoins future - and price drops reflect that. its the speed in which it happens. 40% loss in such a short time is simply to much, compared to the mining costs of one bitcoin beeing estimated at about 3$.  again: bad bad signals for bitcoins future.

bitcoin is the store of value - getting constantly fucked up. prices under 5$ are medium sized catastrophe for bitcoin. but thats the way you, the people of the market, wanted it to be. maybe its my fault also, cause i played with zhoutong to much. after all that leveraged trading has some nasty effects on price.

anyway: bad bad last 4 days for bitcoin. i hope the damage done is not to severe

If only someone could come up with some kind of decentralized way to store value to rid of us of all these single points of failure.

Oh, that's right. You don't really care about what Bitcoin actually is. It's all a big lottery ticket to you.

after seeing that the price droped down to nearly 4 today, i knew i would have been zhoutonged. i also felt like throwing in the towel. and i must say i am also a little disappointed. technical analysis - OK and stuff, but where were the ppl and theire walls? everything fake! everything smoke and bubble!

- 43% in 4 days, this would kill every normal stock. and it certainly is no good thing for bitcoin.

so if you followed the swarm, sold everything in a panic and dropped the price with shorts excuse my emotions: fuck you!
if you are one of those, putting bid walls as high as 20.000 btc and then decide to pull them down and change sides: fuck you very much!

this probably will drive/scare away many people who searched to invest in bitcoin, like i was scared away for about 2 months by the fatal droping price until about $4.

nobody buys into a chart which shows a clearly broken uptrend and panic selling of the sheeps and manipulation like mad. nobody who cares about his money. 

so finally you begun the shit, now end it. drop the price to 3$ or whatever, so miners are forced out of theire business and bitcoin has another crisis2.0 and beeing mentioned in the newspapers as "the hacker money is dead/dies".  surely that will drop the prices even lower and finally we can close the chapter. paypal/westerunion/paxum won, and goldmann sachs can also dance on the grave. maybe they are next to invent the new crypto currency, beeing controlled by them and having the acceptance bitcoin never had.

i kind of throwed a mental towell. at first i applaud your guys, but -40% in 5 days.. that is too much for me - i can't include that in my risk management on bitcoinica. and who tells me that there is anything real at this price?! nobody.

conclusion: im telling everybody to get some bitcoins, while i won't get some now. in fact im giving bad advice if i call to buy bitcoin now. -40% .. why not -70% the next days?! im sure there are folks out there like me who get zhoutonged when price hits 4$.

It may take awhile.

Down down down! Looking forward to that massive drop in mining difficulty

I think you are a very narrow minded opportunist. If anything, this whole issue proves how much we need Bitcoin.