Topic: Tim Draper - Bitcoin Price Will Hit 250 000$ In 2022! - page 2. (Read 515 times)

Extrapolation has a lot of problems.


It's like weight lifting. It's easy to go from lifting 10 kilos to 50, but 250....that's something different

And there is more to it than just holding coins which would be the easy way to reach high prices.
There is the problem of the inflation, right now we print about 100k every 10 minutes, even with the halving coming before this we will still need 1.5 million poured in every 10 minutes.
It's a lot of money, a lot, and this is on top of everything else.

And if we go on just holding and not selling, that would just make bitcoin useless for merchants or traders, and with limited use you also lose value, you have o balance those in order to keep the attention on you or people would switch to something else.

Plus there is this obsession people have about round numbers.
We're going to linger a lot around the 10k mark unless something really big happens but around 100k$ (if ever) we're going to spend years, a lot of years.

Ps...
Is he going to eat something unless this happens or not?  

Tim Draper's expectation is not that crazy as some of us might think. Price of bitcoin is expected to be constantly growing.
I anticipate that the price of BTC after the halving in 2020 will be easy 10x-15x higher than it is now. It is rather safe to say that BTC value will increase over time.
By the way - what happened to the ridiculous prediction of John McAfee - not so long ago he was extremely bullish on Bitcoin and said that price will reach $1 Million by 2020.

It is possible but i think it is unlikely. Bitcoin tends to surprise us though
I hope he is right, my prediction is somewhere between 50 and 100k by 2022.

Tim Draper and the Winklevoss twins are probably the most intriguing high level entities that are quite open to the outside world about what they believe Bitcoin will and can achieve. My personal target is a bit more conservative, which is $50,000 before the end of 2020, which I think has more than decent chances of becoming reality. Everything above my prediction is a more than welcome bonus that I will consider a reward for my believe in Bitcoin's potential. Sellers in current time frame are losers, which is something that has never changed throughout the years. People thought it was smart to cash out their holdings at $1000, then $2000, then $3000, etc....

I don't want to underestimate any of these so-called predictors/investors, they probably have been around for longer than I have been, thus, they definitely have more knowledge that I do. However, I deem these kind of predictions overly optimistic and unrealistic, only time will tell for sure.

I don't think that is possible to happen in 4 years, $ 250k is too big and eventhough year by year bitcoin price continue to increase but 4 years is not enough to reach that's value. we can only predict but we never know what will happen in the future, may be in 4 years 100k is possible value for bitcoin.

Institutional money is just beginning to pour in, we'll easily surpass $250,000.

This is very possible, if we touch 100k at the next halvening in 2020. Of course there would be a long period for consolidation of this mark, but after that bitcoin would be increasing 10k in a matter of days, instead of 1k.

I believe that this year we will see small communities begin to adopt Bitcoin as their main currency. Many people living in stable countries have no idea of the conflicts taking place around the world between peoples and the reprehensible state that represents them.

There are several places in Africa and the Middle East where a small part of the population would like to have complete economic and commercial freedom.

Bitcoin can begin to provide this on a scale and facility much greater than the dollar. With the dollar, it is necessary a physical storage. That in a region in conflict is very difficult. Bitcoin can represent a sight without weapons. A fight for freedom.

List of ongoing armed conflicts
live map

It's indeed a very brave prediction.
On the other hand the asymmetric potential to the upside is so incredibly huge, that's why many of us are here I'd say. Because Bitcoin could change our lives to something much better.
My personal opinion is that I would more agree with Mr. Draper's price forecast if it would be 2-3 years later.
Until 2022 we will only see 1 halving. If he would have said 2024 or 2025, well this would be 2 halvings and the impact of the blockreward getting cut on half would be much more significant imo.
At least he isn't as crazy as John McAfee right?! 

I don't know about $250k in 4 years time. But I do think 6 figures will definitely be the norm by then. I could see the price peaking above $100k in 2020 maybe and then falling significantly below that for a while and then moving into 6 figures for good by 2021 or 2022. But I don't see as high as $250k happening unless Bitcoin devs can figure out the scaling problem (which goes much beyond simply adding LN).

As much as I want him to be right, don't make the mistake of assigning credibility for future predictions based on past predictions! Many people made many different predictions, so some of them are likely to be correct. Some people can even have a few correct predictions.

If I simply extrapolate Bitcoin's all-time graph in log view, a $250k is on the upper end in 2022. The lower end is around $40k.

Probably. But if he still has his 30kBTC, he has 30,000 reasons to be optimistic about Bitcoin's future.

One thing I've noticed with both Bitcoin and virtually all altcoins, is that they always spike up very high, and then drop again. It's never a sustained growth, it's always an overshoot followed by a hard drop.
Since this patterns has repeated itself so many times, it actually gives me confidence it will happen again (and yes, I know past results are no guarantee for the future).

There's only enough Bitcoin for at most 1 in 500 people to own a whole coin. Even holding a fraction can pay off (I've helped several people IRL buy for a couple hundred euro).

geez..
he is overly optimistic about Bitcoin price,the halving may increase Bitcoin price significantly and at best we could see it around $50.000 more or less(because it is halving,the price needs to increase at least 2 times from before).
but did he think it is an affordable numbers for people to buy it ? because in my opinion it is too much.
if Bitcoin reachs that point,i believe people will start to use another coin to replace it as their tool to make the transaction.
so i doubt that it will ever reach that point.

I am not a fan of any predictions higher than $100,000 because in order to at some point reach $250,000 and higher, the majestic and fierce $100,000 level has to be broken through. In other words, all predictions above that level are noise for me and don't make any sense until the aforementioned happens. We have some crazy events and happenings that I believe will steer the market to way higher levels in the forthcoming years.

The main thing for me to look forward to is how coin backed funds will dry out this market (ie, take supply off the market for a longer time) once they are approved by their respective regulators. Bitcoins are quite scarce already by how people are firmly holding them, and continue to hoard more, but that will change when things speed up a notch of ten or twenty due to these funds.

The last halving had a tremendous impact on the market. The main point here is that in the last years, everything happens in advance of that what's going to happen. The previous block halving wasn't any different; we had a major increase in the runup to the halving, and when the halving took place, the price reflected the decrease in supply, and thus didn't had to increase further. People think nothing happened, but don't bother to look further and thus fail to see what happened prior to the halving.

That is crazy guess. But I really don't find it impossible. Wealth value of bitcoin is very high because its fixed supply. When you compare it to basically 0 value dollar (unlimited supply) 250000 dollars is possible too. But dollar should be devalued for that..

After reading, this is my reaction. "WOW!". I like this prediction unlike John McAfee's ridiculously high speculation on 2020. I just have to endure the temptation of selling now until 2022.

What I'm only thinking is by that time, bitcoin's popularity is wide and in every country everyone shall know it. But with what you said, it's another factor.

McAfee has $1,000,000 by December 31 2020.... I had something like Tim Draper's prediction in mind. For me 6 figures will come somewhere early on the 2020's decade. $1million prediction by McAfee is most likely overkill, but don't rule it out, it's definitely possible due the exponential growth nature. Just look at the growth rate during the rise to $20k. We were seeing gains of $1000's daily. This at a bigger scale in which whales are trying to get a position, could make growth of $10,000 daily during the exponential phase. In any case, it is insane not to be holding at least 1 BTC in 2018.

Right on. I'm sure if anyone dug up enough predictions from him, they'd notice they were not always on the mark. I think even a year's valuation would be enough to be in the "right region". The way Bitcoin moves, you only need to be right for a few minutes before corrections happen (might be more interesting if he'd make a prediction on a closer average rather than just a spot price.

Again, all due respect, at least he had his money where his mouth was/is.

On 2020: the last halving didn't seem to have much bearing, but I suppose by the next one, mainstream will see it as a huge scarcity factor. Olympics though? Who knows.

not to undermine Tim but it is always a safe speculation to say bitcoin is going to rise ridiculously big in long term (3 years for example) and many others, even simple members have been doing that!

what i think is that we will see a huge rise in 2020 because there are a couple of things that are happening by then. biggest one is the halving. and also the Olympics 2020 in Tokyo Japan which is turning into the heart of bitcoin merchant adoption of the world. the sheer publicity is going to increase the adoption 100 folds.

It's real. I also believe in this scenario. But if honestly say the for me nothing not will change even if I will know on 100% that this prediction will come true. I don't have a lot of money to buy bitcoin. I can't stop selling coins because I have to live for 4 years. Therefore, we cannot change the course of events even if we know the future.