Topic: Time to discuss next halving? - page 2. (Read 655 times)

all the fluctuations, corrections big and small rises that happened months before the halving (llike the 10 month rise you mentioned) can not be attributed to halving! if you do that then you are saying that bitcoin has nothing else going on for it, adoption is nothing, ... and it only has halving and price only rises because of it! that doesn't make any sense to me!

as for the rise itself it was in no way exponential in the times you mentions.
10 months prior to halving meaning first half of 2016 price went up slowly from $400 to $500 this is a 25% rise in 6 months in a bull market after a very long downtrend from Mt Gox bubble.

that is exactly my point! it is the hype of Futures that made the big rise. halving hype is no different. the real effect of halving which is different from hype comes afterwards with at least 1 month delay.

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price. 

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings. 

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price. 

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings. 

One thing is sure. Next bull market will come.

I think price can't go much lower because of mining profitability. The only way for price to go even lower is hashrate increase has to stop. We have more and more miners in network every day for Bitcoin. This is kind-a margin they are breaking even or losing money and that is rare event. Price can go only up from now on.

I can't believe that you were really looking at the previous 2 halving events with your own eyes. I don't know about the first halving you refer to, which should have happened in 2012, as I wasn't there and can't say anything. But I witnessed the second coming, um, halving, and can say things didn't happen like you describe them.

First off, the prices started rising in early September, 2015, which was like 10 months before halving. They went exponential in the first half of 2016. Then, just before the halving, maybe 2-3 weeks prior the event, there was a massive correction of about 20-30%. After that, Bitfinex got hacked on August 2, which likely postponed the recovery due to over 100k bitcoins being sold before (through massive shorting) and right after the hack. The real growth which we all witnessed in 2017 started again in September, this time in 2016.

not to mention that we will have a lot more going on for bitcoin and a lot more rises before we even reach halving. think of halving in 2020 as the Futures market in 2017. price was already $9000 when the Futures speculation came and price went up to $20k but it had gone up from $900 (10x) already before that.... halving will be the same. we will have rises then the halving will be a big shoot up and a mini bubble.