Topic: timing the market - page 3. (Read 628 times)

That's a rather bold statement

Especially the part about Mt Gox. It seems like it is you who needs a strong reality check here. Really, if the 2013 and 2017 surges were mostly due to halvings (as you claim), you will have a difficult question to answer, a difficult problem to solve. That is, if it really were thanks to halvings, how come that the price crashed 5 times in 2014 from the 2013 highs and over 6 times in 2018 after the 2017 peak? Did halvings get canceled or what?

But gaining bitcoin through trading seems like such a better option - until they realize that it's more likely they will lose it instead.
I get it, it's hard to throw money at a gamble - the trick is to stop looking at bitcoin as a gamble and look at it as a solid investment.

I used to try to use TA with crypto but generally speaking it's mostly useless from what I've seen.  50% of the people that use it are right, 50% wrong (generally speaking).  Buy, hold, and enjoy life much better than trying to time markets.  If you lose out on 10-20% than so be it, you can lose a lot more by being wrong using TA.

Your analysis sucks. Both 2013 and 2017 spikes were 100% due to halvings. Most coins for sale are newly mined, which is why halving this supply has such a dramatic impact. It doesn't go up smoothly because that's not how this market works - it way overshoots, overcorrect then settles back down to a price 10x+ what it was before the previous halving. Then the whole process repeats.
Everything you mention, asics, mt gox, futures, icos, is all just blah blah blah coincidental bullshit events people use to try to understand what is a naturally occuring event that was purposefully built into bitcoin. And it works, exactly as intended. The real reason people lose money is they don't want to use what they feel as "real" money to buy it and wait. They want to make free bitcoin doing short term trading, which is nothing more than gambling.
The song lyric "stealin' when I should have been buying" comes to mind.

The best tip is to do the exact opposite of what the traders are telling you to do. They are just in it to get their profits no matter what the cost is, you are either buying their dumps or selling them too cheap.

The trend can indeed change quickly and surprise you when you're mainly working with very small time frames. If you however focus on the longer time frames, trends usually take a while to have a confirmed change.

There are people who consider the last few weeks to be very bearish, while if you look at the last 6 months, the trend is still very bullish. As long as the longer term trend is bullish there isn't anything to worry about.

At the end of the day, people who aren't trading regularly shouldn't pay attention to the short term fluctuations. If you're in for the long term and just sit on your coins, then why does it matter what the price today or tomorrow is?

This is all in an unpredictable movement, You can not time the market movement with a long term analysis but you can always do a short term one and most traders are just using a short term one to make some earnings with it, But if you are talking about the trends and the bottom rally many speculators are looking back at the previous movement Bitcoin have, And that is how they can tell of how the market will move, But many are relying also on news because there is a chance that the movement will sure follow the news if it is a positive or a negative one.

I agree with the follow the trend but its not that easy to see the trend, some of them could be manipulative and sometimes the trend can quickly shifting, I think TA itself will help a lot to give you good insight of the market trend, you need to combine few indicators and the news to get the timing

  Youve got a wise decision mate, because the current market has suffering volatilization and it is hard to determine on when does the stabilization will totally exceed. And I believe that trade is about our individual statistic to create liable outcome.

If only by chance alone

Unless you are an insider like a major exchange or a high-tier member of the SEC (or similar authority), your only chance to time the market is by luck alone. To most of us price action is just a random walk. Of course, you can build complex theories in hindsight but they will only be post hoc rationalizations of the unpredictability and randomness of the market at the most basic level (read, for the majority of ordinary traders). But that in itself doesn't mean the market is as unpredictable and random at higher levels of market participation (exchanges) or governance (authorities)

the trick for timing the market is always to figure out the market trend itself. and then as soon as you figure that out, you have to go with that trend instead of against it. for example in 2018 the dominating trend was downwards and going against it would have meant a lot of losses. and now in 2019 the dominating trend is upwards and going against that will similarly be devastating.
of course that is the big longer term trend not the short term fluctuations which have their own micro trends. but I focus on the bigger picture because it is easier to grasp.
doing some TA is always good but you should never rely on it because it is unreliable as it is and it gets less reliable when you enter a small market like bitcoin.

I had the same experience as well but instead of being late to sell I fell asleep I lost 300mbtc(the price of btc was 1.3k$ at the time)that day.
I was focusing on trading back then and have little to no sleep since I still have a day job. after losing 300 mbtc I stopped trading completelty
because I am too shocked about losing 300mbtc. I know 300mbtc may not be a lot back then but in my country that could provide me for months.

I became a trader for a long time and only recently have I experienced a considerable loss, with 1 late reason to sell. I don't understand for before if maybe there is a time to set the market, and far from my mind. Because I also often experience considerable profits in weekly trading. For now I don't want to comment too much, because I stopped trading for a while. While waiting for capital.

your are simplifying the market and over generalizing all the things you said. it is not that simple at all. bitcoin is rising not because of RSI or anything like that, it is rising because it is being adopted more and more. in simple terms more money is coming in every day! and supply is limited.

your initial statements are mostly true about altcoins. they get pumped and go high then they start dumping while people think it is the bottom but they get dumped more.

there is no timing strategy.
no one can predict a future movement of speculation. but they sure as hell can be a preacher and cause a pump and dump.
people say they have strategy groups people can join purely to get naive people in to invest when preached at.
what they dont realise is the preacher making the calls already bought in. and letting th naive investors DO the pumping. and while the preacher is shouting "look i told you it would go up" (but only due to his preach) the preacher is getting ready to exit.
leaving the naive investors stuck at the top while the preacher causes the dump

same goes for trend anals as explained in last post i wrote. they are not predictor guys, they are preachers hoping to get naive viewers to react to their preaches to actually cause the thing thats preached.

On a weekly timeframe, one of the things I can see to see the right timing market is an entry on a particular day. For me on Thursday-Saturday is the time to take entry and between Monday-Tuesday is the time to exit. Even though this cannot be generalized, you should try analysis and apply it first to some coins that you might like.

Really? Can real traders know the timing? If so, these people would make money all the time. Does anybody make money like that?

there are no 'natural' trends.
there are no 'natural' market cycles

what occurs is some stupid trend anal guy see's 2013's rise.. sees late 2017 rise and shouts out "every 4 years theres a cycle"

what not been told is the 2013 rise was due to the invention of asics
what not been told is the 2017 rise was due to the invention of futures options

2 separate events, 2 events not tied to each other, 2 events that wont repeat
but now. because of trend anals. people start programming their bots that in 2021 expect another big event. (facepalm)

the foolish part is. then a group of bots plans to buy during 2017-2021 with the hope to exit at the preached facepalm date
theres also a group that think due to halvening of 2012 and 2016 they need to buy before 2020.

this causes bot programmers to set thousands of bots to buy early. to get best prices
thus causing rampant price rises.
not due to any actual natural proved trends. but simply reactions of hearing that someone preached something wil happen.

its like self fulfilling prophecy or better known as pump and dumps.
announce something will happen that wont happen if you kept mouth shut. but you cause it to happen just because you opened your mouth,

so here is a simple lesson.
if you think you can predict the future. thousands of others have thought the same thing and set their bots to do so. so by the time you want to act on your plan. others already have.. and you end up too late.

same goes for price dips
the 2014 dip and 2018 dip was not "trend" but was mtgox and a mix of futures sell off and next gen asic where old gen were sold off causing mining to get cheaper thus pools selling at less and still profiting.

this does not mean there is a natural "winter dip" as the events are unrelated and next winter wont occur again. but now bots have been programmed to foolishly think there would be a winter dip and so they will do things before winter,

so again if your planning on a winter dip. thousands already have and so they will react before winter to effectively maybe cause a autumn dip before the preached winter dip.

so here is a simple lesson.
if you think you can predict the future. thousands of others have thought the same thing and set their bots to do so. so by the time you want to act on your plan. others already have.. and you end up too late.

you CANNOT predict the future. because by the time you think you know. everyone knows and everyone has planned to act before it

trend anals are not predictors. they are pump and dump preachers. they say something will happen at Z so that people react and try to get in early at Y so that the preacher can get in at X and get out at Z. leaving anyone hoping to see Z as those left too late holding the bag

The weekly RSI definitely seems to be timed perfectly with the recent bull run, however, if you look at the weekly RSI during 2017, it was overextended for months up to 90 points several times and nothing happened. Bitcoin was able to climb from 800$ to 20000$ through a whole year with the RSI being overextended most of the time, the monthly RSI was through the roof at 97 points and nothing. While I agree that the RSI can be a good indicator, it is certainly not that important because it cannot take in count the buying or selling pressure accurately when FOMO or fear settles in.

If some a trader really knows how to time the market properly,he will never share his knowledge for free.
Why creating competition,when he could get all the profits.