To All You Guys Who Keep Telling Everybody to BTFD - page 2.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on November 29, 2018, 02:56:49 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on November 29, 2018, 01:21:41 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on November 29, 2018, 10:30:22 AM

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation. Cheesy

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

If you’re after quick money then bitcoin isn’t for you. Most of us who have HODLED since 2014 & before have made incredible gains that no fiat savings account will ever give you.

as someone who held through the 2014 bear market, that's a fair point.

but the issue wasn't about quick money. it was about recognizing there's a larger market cycle, and how detrimental to your portfolio buying near a bubble top can be. that's why i don't like the indiscriminate BTFD mentality---it only works in bull markets. after the bubble pops, it's wise to wait out the bear market, even if it means missing out on the bottom. you never know which dip will be the last. waiting the bear market out before buying (rather than holding to the bottom) can easily double or triple your stash for the next bull run.

LFC_Bitcoin

legendary

Activity: 3556

Merit: 9709

#1 VIP Crypto Casino

Quote from: figmentofmyass on November 29, 2018, 01:21:41 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on November 29, 2018, 10:30:22 AM

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation. Cheesy

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

If you’re after quick money then bitcoin isn’t for you. Most of us who have HODLED since 2014 & before have made incredible gains that no fiat savings account will ever give you.

cindygirl

full member

Activity: 280

Merit: 105

Quote from: figmentofmyass on November 27, 2018, 10:17:30 PM

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 27, 2018, 07:18:10 AM

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational. $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater.

we're at 250-300k confirmed transactions per day. that's not nothing.

bitcoin is money. i don't think it needs to have any other use cases. the main question for price is how expansive the network gets.

Comparatively speaking 250-300k confirmed transactions per day is nothing. Any major currency will in to billions of transactions per day. I believe that Visa has around 150 million transactions a day. That should put things in to some perspective. Bitcoin has a usefulness and is clearly being used but it still pales in comparison to anything established.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on November 29, 2018, 10:30:22 AM

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

since last month, the price nearly dropped in half from top to bottom. i wouldn't exactly call that a small price fluctuation. Cheesy

the OP is right. people have been screaming "buy the dip" since january. if you bought the dip back then instead of now, you'd have 3x or 4x less coins right now!

gabmen

hero member

Activity: 1246

Merit: 529

CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Well long term holders probably aren't too eager for another ath run anytime soon anyways. Some people just can't afford to btfd all the time and grow their btc stash. It's just a bit too hard to keep your emotions and anxiety in check whenever you see the market and your portfolio jumping off and breaking apart like humpty dumpty.

LFC_Bitcoin

legendary

Activity: 3556

Merit: 9709

#1 VIP Crypto Casino

Come on toke man, look what would have happened if you would have BTFD Wink

Seriously I’m always buying & increasing my stash, one bitcoin will be valued at north of $40,000 after the next halvening. Don’t get caught with your pants down.

Small price fluctuations from day to day, week to week don’t matter. Buy & HODL for the long term.

KalaiBTC

full member

Activity: 448

Merit: 102

Quote from: WinslowIII on November 26, 2018, 10:45:42 PM

Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on November 26, 2018, 05:26:56 PM

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

Hahahahaha! I can only imagine!! This year alone for a lot of people is already looking like a decade. When will the crypto market recover? When will things change in this market? When are we going to be able to go back to where it dropped from? All those questions are the things we are getting to see with the market now, and of course, it is expected, judging from the way things have been and the way some people actually approached the market. 30 years literally for crypto is not actually something I will see happening, considering that the space is still young and people will still want to get greedier.

magneto

hero member

Activity: 1666

Merit: 753

Quote

I don't wanna be a party pooper or anything but BTC getting back to its ath could take a lot longer than anticipated. Markets are more irrational than not and the fundamentals may see that it should go to ath, it prolly won't.

The best example I could think of is the Japanese stock market. It still hasn't broken it's ath which happened on 1990. That's like a tad under 30 years.

Right. There is absolutely every possibility that could happen, given the sheer size of the last bull market. But I don't think it's likely.

I still think that we're very close to the bottom at the moment, given how much interest institutions have shown in trading or investing into bitcoin in the past few months despite what the market sentiment has been like. This is also around the level which the bear market after 2013 had bottomed out.

Obviously, previous performance isn't always a reliable indicator of what's going to happen in the future, but I think that the 2020 halving will also have a very bullish impact on the market, solely based on a price standpoint. Of course though, we don't know when this is actually going to bottom, but I do think that right now it is probably worth it to get into the market gradually and extend long positions on BTC. Even if it does fall further down under $3k, I don't think it's very likely it would stay under there for too long. That's where dollar cost averaging could help.

wuvdoll

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1025

It doesn't really matter if you buy the dip and it goes down even further. I mean if you buy the dip with all of your money thats a big trouble but if you are a person who makes money on regular basis like many other you can buy it again on the next dip.

As long as you can keep on buying the dip you are dropping the cost average of your purchases down and when the price goes higher it only requires to go higher a bit after a while. There was a person I read on reddit that bought 100 dollars worth of bitcoin since the 2014 fiasco.

Dude put up 100 dollars each month until 20 thousand dollar of last year, he said he cashed out a bit of investment to buy something (I forgot what it was) but intends to keep the rest in there and keep on buying 100 dollars every month. There is literally no dip for you that's too bad if you follow that logic.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on November 27, 2018, 07:43:57 AM

Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on November 27, 2018, 07:05:49 AM

-snip-

The problem with this chart is that you can zoom in and out on the bitcoin graph as you like and fit it to any number of scenarios. It's been cropping up on here and various other crypto sites and forums since around March or April this year, along with literally thousands of charts that which we are going to moon to a million, dump to zero, and everything in between. I'm very much in the camp that these kinds of technical analyses, pattern recognition and fitting price movements to lines and graphs are inaccurate at best, and complete guess work at worst.

fractal analysis like that = curve fitting. i used to love trading fractals until they screwed me over repeatedly and i learned my lesson. you can't reliably backtest chart patterns, particularly complex ones. you can't expect history to keep repeating itself either!

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 27, 2018, 07:18:10 AM

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational. $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater.

we're at 250-300k confirmed transactions per day. that's not nothing.

bitcoin is money. i don't think it needs to have any other use cases. the main question for price is how expansive the network gets.

BrewMaster

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1293

There is trouble abrewing

a big difference that is usually forgotten about bitcoin price is that when you look at other markets, the rises and falls are actual growth and bubbles and bubble bursts and corrections and .... in short they are market cycles.

but when it comes to bitcoin what you see is similar and it consists of the same cycle steps but 90% of what you see is irrational and emotional market behavior. if you see similarities some days, it is because people are emotionally deciding to react that way not because the market went that way.

tokeweed

legendary

Activity: 3976

Merit: 1421

Life, Love and Laughter...

I could see some replies saying the comparison is invalid and stuff... All I'm saying is it could happen to BTC too. It's really not that impossible. Same as BTC to a 100k USD isn't impossible... That's all I'm saying.

And that meme is funny. Grin

o_e_l_e_o

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 18748

Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on November 27, 2018, 07:05:49 AM

-snip-

The problem with this chart is that you can zoom in and out on the bitcoin graph as you like and fit it to any number of scenarios. It's been cropping up on here and various other crypto sites and forums since around March or April this year, along with literally thousands of charts that which we are going to moon to a million, dump to zero, and everything in between. I'm very much in the camp that these kinds of technical analyses, pattern recognition and fitting price movements to lines and graphs are inaccurate at best, and complete guess work at worst.

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 27, 2018, 07:18:10 AM

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational.

It absolutely is, and I really hope the wider crypto-sphere follows suit. There are coins in the top 10 by marketcap (don't even get me started on how useless a metric marketcap is) that are outright scams. The death of >95% of the altcoins would do us all a world of good.

TheBeardedBaby

legendary

Activity: 2240

Merit: 3150

₿uy / $ell ..oeleo ;(

Quote from: gentlemand on November 27, 2018, 07:10:56 AM

Halvings will gradually lose potency. Going from 25 BTC to 12.5 is a big deal when there are still 15% of new coins to arrive. Going from 0.78 to 0.39 when 0.8% is left to mine is considerably less impactful in real terms. Dunno about the psychology f those numbers though.

It depends on the price of the bitcoin I guess. If it is in the price range as per today it won't matter so much, again 9 years ago the a few bitcoins were almost nothing in a value. What will be in 8 years or 30, I can just speculate, but if the up going trend continues those low number can still affect the market, maybe not so drastically as the last years but for sure there will be an impact.

The Sceptical Chymist

legendary

Activity: 3528

Merit: 7005

Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: tokeweed on November 26, 2018, 09:07:33 AM

Markets are more irrational than not and the fundamentals may see that it should go to ath, it prolly won't.

Or you could take my view and think that the bitcoin market is becoming a bit more rational. $20,000 for an asset that doesn't get used for much other than trading seems insane to me--and I'm a bitcoin supporter, by the way, not a hater. It could be that where we're at ($3666 as I write this) is more of a level-headed price.

Would I love it to be much higher? Hell, yes. But maybe all the weak handed morons and other speculators have been shaken out of the market and it might be time for some new--and hopefully slower--growth.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on November 27, 2018, 07:05:49 AM

There is one other thing that is missing in the big picture.
In addition to what the previous guys said about the comparison between bitcoin market and the Japanese stock market the here is the other nail to the OP's theory - the Bitcoin Halving.
And those 4 year cycles cause and will continue to make the market tremble, it inevitable.

Halvings will gradually lose potency. Going from 25 BTC to 12.5 is a big deal when there are still 15% of new coins to arrive. Going from 0.78 to 0.39 when 0.8% is left to mine is considerably less impactful in real terms. Dunno about the psychology f those numbers though.

TheBeardedBaby

legendary

Activity: 2240

Merit: 3150

₿uy / $ell ..oeleo ;(

There is one other thing that is missing in the big picture.
In addition to what the previous guys said about the comparison between bitcoin market and the Japanese stock market the here is the other nail to the OP's theory - the Bitcoin Halving.
And those 4 year cycles cause and will continue to make the market tremble, it inevitable.

Just for fun here...

Source > https://cryptozek.com/bitcoin-chart-wall-street-cheat-sheet-market-cycle/

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

Merit: 347

Quote from: WinslowIII on November 26, 2018, 10:45:42 PM

Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on November 26, 2018, 05:26:56 PM

I mean, I agree with you tokeweed, but there was the greatest financial crash since the great depression in those 30 years which goes some way to explaining the slow recovery. And as we all know, bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate and swing much more significantly and rapidly than stock market prices. I know that past performance does not predict future behavior, and I agree that we are probably going to be waiting several years for the next all time high, but I think 30 years is a bit of a stretch.

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

This. But about BTFD, I dont think cost-averaging is a good strategy, specially in a bear market. But waiting for a bottom is not a good strategy either, as I tought 6k was the final bottom, bought some fractions and now the price is half of it. We cant have strategies with bitcoin, the market is very manipulated.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Quote from: Pursuer on November 27, 2018, 06:06:07 AM

well, I don't know. I can't remember seeing @tokeweed spreading FUD about bitcoin in the past so I don't think the intentions here was FUDing either. I still find the comparison pretty strange though.

It's somewhat disingenuous to start calling him a FUDbot by attempting to inject some realism but it's interesting how people ALWAYS choose stock markets as a comparison when it's forex that has many more similarities in how it operates at least.

Quote from: WinslowIII on November 26, 2018, 10:45:42 PM

3 crypto years = 30 normal years.

Another fundamental difference is a stock market operates a few hours a day 5 days a week in one country. Crypto churns 24/7 globally in every grubby corner of the internet.

Human psychology can't be rushed but it terms of pure market that means 200 or so countries 24 hours a day vs 1 country for 8 hours a day. 600x more temporal real estate for action.

Pursuer

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1163

Where is my ring of blades...

Quote from: Wilhelm on November 27, 2018, 04:53:39 AM

Quote from: Pursuer on November 27, 2018, 04:31:29 AM

what I don't get here is that why made you even compare stocks market of Japan with bitcoin?!!! it is like comparing apples and oranges. there is nothing comparable here. and even if you want to compare then start comparing them in ALL aspects not just take one part (the time taking for recovery) and compare that. you need to start comparing volume, price rise and drop (as in the size and time frame it takes), manipulations, regulation, investor trust, FUD, number of investors, potential... and a ton of other factors. and as you start doing that you can see how your statement starts falling apart.

He made the comparison because it fits his outlook on the situation or the agenda of his master Cool

.
Just another FUD.

But in some sense there is a point to be made that the history of Bitcoin might not repeat. I however still believe in Bitcoin

well, I don't know. I can't remember seeing @tokeweed spreading FUD about bitcoin in the past so I don't think the intentions here was FUDing either. I still find the comparison pretty strange though.

Topic: To All You Guys Who Keep Telling Everybody to BTFD - page 2. (Read 826 times)