Topic: Today (05/07) more than 3x of the BTC were sold than MtGox will pay out in July - page 2. (Read 563 times)

So for me, I believe this could be the reason why we experienced some dumps recently that led to $60,000 level.
What happening right now is more like "buy the rumour, sell the news". Which the dumps is already happened before the event or after the event.

So its bad news make bitcoin suddenly dropping under $60k last two days ago? Mt.Gox still make many people panic behind several time announce refund bitcoin assets to their member but still only promising and I can't memorize well how many time some information publishing Mt.Gox will refund bitcoin assets to their member.

Actually I don't sure yet with Mt.Gox have schedule refund on next month behind how many time give fake promised to their member, its only way how to make FUD and many people panic for selling their bitcoin get anticipation more decreasing of bitcoin price later if Mt.Gox surely make refund of bitcoin. Three days left before July and waiting will its only way to make FUD or Mt.Gox make their promise true by refunding their member bitcoin assets indeed distribute not all at once.

Is there a need to worry about the MtGox payment in July? I laugh out loud at people who shiver at any slightly negative news they hear about bitcoin, making them sell off all of their bitcoin holdings without considering the state of the market, which shows that whatever fall bitcoin experiences, there are investors interested in buying more.

MtGox's Bitcoin sale will only have an impact on the price of bitcoin for a few weeks, in other weeks, the price will return to normal, and can even increase. However, I think this bitcoin sale by MtGox will be nothing serious that will dump bitcoin at the same time

Thanks!

But maybe the amount they hold in wallets doesn't have to be equal to what they are set to distribute.
I wasn't Mt Gox's customer and I don't have a clue on the bankruptcy details, but I remember it was reported years ago that liabilities to creditors have been denominated in fiat currency (I believe it was Japanese Yen) at the bitcoin's market value at the time. So when Bitcoin started to go sharply up, it turned out that the stash the Mt Gox had left was not only enough to satisfy all creditors, but Mark Karpeles could actually end up with a massive profit.
I don't know how that unfolded though. I hope that creditors managed to get their holdings to be considered in bitcoins, not fiat, but if some of them opted to be compensated in fiat years ago, then it's possible that only a portion of that 141,687 will get distributed.

I believe the impact of Mt. Gox redistribution event is more psychological than practical. When you know large sums of Bitcoin are going to be dropped for sale on the market, the impact is much more devastating and negative than when such sales happen in a daily basis without any previous warnings or expectations.

Add this to the boost given by the media which keeps sharing these news in alarming contexts to the public. It leads to a wave of fear and pessimism among investors, who will also tend to add more coins for sale. That is when the scenario gets really bad on short term.

If investors kept in mind the redistribution made by Mt. Gox corresponds to a minor portion of BTC negotiations, we would have the practical effect only, which is minimal. However, fear is an infectious disease, and the media is the main contagious agent. Unfortunatelly, very few individuals have developed autoimmunity against it, so you can expect the psychological conditions to have a noticeable effect over market's fluctuations.

141687 BTC
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1AsHPP7WcGnDLzxW2bUa2FcbJP3eZVEqpx
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/16eAGJEjqsUqngMfcysQECvp7TMU37P9gX
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1HeHLv7ZRFxWUVjuWkWT2D5XFbXXvHoV68

142,846 BCH
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin%20cash/address/1Ci9S6XfXSVk3WpyPVM8eqXJ4NfWZhY37

I don't understand why some authors still speculate on the amounts, we had hundreds of pages from the bankruptcy claims and trustee plan, and all the finances are out in the open to the last yen, why so much confusion?
Again, up to this date they haven't sold or distributed a thing!

Do we even have any reliable information on the whole Mt Gox distribution thing?
Some media are reporting that the actual number of bitcoins is not clear and can be anything from 65,000 to 140,000:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mt-gox-finally-repaying-customers-155925395.html

And, whatever the number is, I don't expect it will be distributed all at once, so it could start from July, but could span over many months (if not years).

But somehow I'm not worried too much about that, I don't think it has any potential of crashing the market, I think we could expect a few percent drop at the worst.

BTC price action is trying to break its downtrend, I'd say be bullish with caution.  Its very risky below 63k but if we dont lose 60.8k then possibly we have a flag pattern that can resolve upwards possibly.

63k is near to the weekly average, its above a fibonacci level relating to the old ATH and layers of volume built around there.  I think thats the pivotal price to say mt. gox or any other selling has been disregarded.

My overall ongoing stance until we break range is that we got something like dust devil action right now.   Alot of motion not much going on as we are just turning in circles waiting for resolution.  I do presume upwards eventually but near term 63k to this slight positive above 61k is where I'm looking.  I'll take the daily bars more seriously, we remain below the 50 day average.

And how do you know they haven't sold their claims?
Everyone that had BTC on MtGox will receive BTC+BCH+yen for their coins, the last rehabilitation plan saw to this, the only ones that got cash were the ones having fiat on the exchange. So nobody but maybe the trustee himself knows how much the ownership of the claims has changed from then.

Anyhow, the three addresses with coins are still sitting idle, they haven't moved their coins for a month already and I doubt any exchange has the liquidity to deal with that without touching them, just using their cold wallets so unless those moves there will be no selling either.

Oh, and the BCH address is the same, completely untouched, if we go by the assumption that the holders are truly BTC and not BCH believers that would have to be dumped even faster on the market.

At least I think the FED meeting prevented new ATHs and caused the general weak price evolution last week, but there is a strong argument that it wasn't the main reason for the Monday drop under 60000: the timing. The deepest fall came after the MtGox announcement. This probably triggered further liquidations, in particular after the price approached 60000.

If the MtGox announcement came instead in a period of stronger bullish price action it could indeed have been less impactful. But both in the Wall Observer and in the main crypto media everybody talked about the Goxcoins, so I'm quite sure that this caused at least a big part of the Monday dip.

I fully agree with this part of your post.

And I would even go further: every time such a big "stash" of coins is paid out or its situation normalized, a potential "Damocles sword" less is threatening the market, or in other words, there's a reason less for FUD and panicking. If we are wrong and more Goxcoins are sold and drive the BTC price deep below the 60k mark, I would be sure that this could be an excellent buying opportunity (of course if there are no further fundamental reasons for this hypothetic drop).

For the same reason I'm not so enthusiastic about the new US ETFs piling up lots of BTC. While the BlackrockCoins have a very different character than the Goxcoins or the BKAcoins or the SilkroadCoins, if one of the entities managing the ETFs were in danger of bankruptcy, even if the BTCs are not in danger, it's very likely we could see strong outflows in a very short time due to customers panicking.

I am not surprised, I've always known that people often hype the market situation than it is, but at the same time, the reason for the current selling is more than any single scope. If solely I should draw the conclusion from what you explained, it is just something that is insignificant. Let's assume that a $9B would be moved out of Bitcoin, and so? Many more volumes are often moved in and out in many days of ordinary trading activities, so this can't hurt anything ordinarily. But still, the market does not view everything the way you do at times, this is why, at times, a mere rumour could move the market significantly, while true news with even more devastating data may move it less, the market is funny.

This is where market psychology comes into play and it works in relation to the market sentiments. Now, the current market sentiment is extremely bearish, so the implication is that the news that would have had an impact of $9B may end up having an impact of over $45B or more. This is the way the market works.

It is just like the vehicle in a sloppy position, only a finger push could make it move so much, something that can't ordinarily happen if it was positioned differently. I hope you under this!

You are on point. The corrections has been neutralized from what I see and the price gradually moving upward. I am quite sure that in the past few hours, so many people who are new to the market were predicting and maybe even selling due to fear that it might drop far below $58K. Let's see what happens in the next few hours and hope it climbs further.

I agree with you on this though, not having any experience at all makes it had for you to persist and in times like this, you either bank on other person’s experience or take comfort in historical data to hold on to your precious Bitcoins. Just yesterday it was reading numbers that weren’t promising and now, it’s pumping a little bit, showing that the correction that was been done on the market is past and we could be heading right back towards an uptrend. I never expected it to go below $58k and am proud to see the correction been reversed.

Majority of people will perceive this as if the Bull market is over if we go further below $58k, we are in a period of time where experience is differciated from knowledge, only people that has experienced from the past Bull market cycles would understand the game beacausec there's usually the last panic sell before the main event and which I believe that this is likely going to be the last dip and the last chance we would have to buy Bitcoin in such a cheaper price.

Why do you think that people who sold yesterday were panicking due to Gox news? We knew Gox coins were being prepared since April when the coins were moving and there were some statements from the liquidators that they are in the final stage. People were even speculating when the price dropped a bit in April that it might be first wave of Gox coins already being sold.

IMO the reason for the drop was the FED meeting, because we started moving down since they said there will be only 1 cut later this year.
That started a slow process of long positions being liquidated and people who invested in ETFs in hope of making money on coming rate cuts pulling back.
I'm not amazed that Wall Street did a 180 degrees turn because most of these people want to make money ASAP and Nvidia went up 15% in the last month while bitcoin moved by less than 5% (69k-72k) in the same time. So they said fuk it, stocks are doing better lets move money elsewhere.

Gox coins aren't going to flood the market. If you think that everything that Gox gives back to people will be dumped, think again. Most of these people had years to sell their claims and did nothing, patiently waited for the money to be returned to them, so many of these people are bitcoin believers. They thought that it would go up, so they wanted the real thing and were willing to wait a few years for it.
If 50% of them sell I'm going to be surprised.

A scientific analysis of market movements indeed should take into account market depth. But meaningful data about market depth evolution is difficult to obtain it seems (I have already searched and asked here for that, if you know a source a link is much appreciated).

So for a simple forum post I reccur sometimes to assumptions.   A day with 50% more volume than "normal" is probably caused by people adding massively sell or buy orders, influencing market depth in this process. Most of yesterday's movement (until I wrote that post) was downwards, so it was quite obvious that more sell orders were added than buy orders. And the value of all additional sell orders probably exceeded 9 billion if the volume was 15 billion more than "normal".

It is of course possible that the 15 billion additional orders were all wash trading, but it's highly unlikely.

9 billion does matter, in my opinion (based on the data on yesterday's dump, which was about 9% in the moment of its maximum panic) it would cause about a 5-7% dump of the price in a similar (sideways to slightly bearish) market situation ... if everything was sold 100% and the same day (highly unlikely). Of course, if more people panic while the coins are sold, the crash can be deeper. But the Goxcoins and BKAcoins alone would probably not be enough to cause a really deep crash (let's say 20% or so).

First of all, all those MT Gox users must be following the market for so many years and they know that the bull market season is very near and hence we expect that not everyone will try to sell as soon as they get those bitcoins.
Secondly, there are so many investors and buyers in the market that they will absorb this selling pressure and the market may not dump as much as everyone is expecting.

Just like sell the news event, i think this time bitcoin will pump instead of dumping and surprises most of the people who have opened short positions in anticipation to this event.

I appreciate this thread because when I see the market panicking it confuses me if people do their research when they hear rumors or news to understand what is going to happen. When MtGox will payout in July, everybody is not going to sell, most people will be hodling because they know they can get more value if they hodl for Bitcoin to reach a new highest price for this market cycle. It is the fear in the traders that tanks the market and not the people that will receive the Bitcoin. Before the payout happens people will begin to speculate a dip without knowing that if everybody was hodling strong and buying, the payout in July would not have any impact on the market. The market has the volumes to make the sell pressure from the people that will be selling to not be noticed.

So this means that even if everyone would see all their coins it would still not matter because that's just monthly volume? 

Volume is meaningless without market depth!
I always said that if I had 2 1l  bottles and I would pour 1litre of water from one to another relentlessly I would transfer 10,000 liters with ease (volume),  but it takes just 1 additional liter of water (the dump) dumped in the same bottle to overflow (market depth) and spill (yesterday's crash).

Oh, and btw if you think that 9 billion doesn't matter at this volume, doesn't this also imply we need some 100 billion to go up in a meaningful way?

Is the MtGox coins distribution even true?
We've heard of this news many times but they were never really distributed. Same with cryptopia coins, where most of those who still have coins in there are not expecting them anymore. Even the FTX users may not even expect them anymore.

But if it's true this time though, I think it could really spark the panic and still sell their coins. Seem a human nature already to sell when there is a threat to the price.