Topic: Today Jul10-2013, soon we will witness an extremely high jump in difficulty - page 2. (Read 3430 times)

ASICMINER is ordering 800 - 1000 TH of hashpower this year. Of course they are going to sell them for cheap.

we wish to everything you're right except the thing is that....its inevidable that the difficulty will hit an exponential growth rate specifically when market forces allow mining companies to have plenty of stock to sell.  I'd have like 10 miners by now if I could because of the returns on it...like the person above said, its sort of controlled at the moment as companies race to make a superior asic...bfl will probably show a large jump soon I think we are being naive to think they will stay slow forever...if they can show an impressive turnaround they will have repeat purchases.

It's not going to be anywhere near that high by October. I predict it will be somewhere around 50 million by then.

Here is why not:

- Butterfly Labs is shipping very slowly. They are not going to get through their backlog of preorders in 90 days like they promised. They probably won't even get through 25% of their pre-orders in 90 days. They are shipping very few singles and seem to have completely stopped shipping jalapenos
- Avalon batch #2 is done shipping now I believe. Batch #3 will likely ship soon, but there isn't likely be a batch #4. Batch #3 isn't really that many machines (compared to BFL pre-orders at least).
- Avalon chips look like they might be delayed too. And I believe people are underestimating how long it will take to get the first Avalon clones working and how long it will take to get them built and shipped in any significant quantities. We probably won't see them in large numbers until October at least.
- KNC might actually ship on time, but they aren't due to start until Sept or Oct. Anything could delay them and I wouldn't be too surprised if they don't ship until the end of the year.
- ASIC Miner will continue to ship their miners but even if they drop their prices, they are less attractive now because of the recent difficulty increases. ASIC Miner themselves will only add mining power as necessary to hover around 25-30% of the world hashrate.

I just don't see where 10 times the current hash power is going to come from in the next 3-4 months to get the difficulty that high.

Doubling is likely, but not 10+ times.

26.2Million. Nice.

I thought 150,000,000 around November...you really think 250-300million by October?

Boom.
Even my pessimistic 1.5% growth per day is proving too optimistic.  

I'm watching with popcorn.

1% growth is fine, for the next 6 months or so. I doubt it will grow that fast in a year or two.

Jump from 21.3 to 26.1 Million, 22.5%
Signs of things to come. The ASIC floodgates have been released.
This is a result of continuous ~1.02X daily mining growth.
I estimate that in 4 months (October 2013) Difficulty with be 10X of today's difficulty somewhere between 250 - 300 Million.

So please be very aware before spending those coins