Topic: Today (June 2nd) is the crucial day for end of downtrend - page 2. (Read 580 times)

Never said yesterday was the start of the bull market haha. I just said if it closes above a certain amount (which it did) that means it broke the downward resistance line that has been in action since a month ago, and this should signal that Bitcoin will rise back up near the top of the longer term wedge its been operating in for the past 4 months (especially since it just bounced off the bottom of that wedge at around $7000). Nothing about a breakout bull market. Just stating that if it follows the pattern of the past few months it should go to mid-8000s soon now that it has indeed just broken the May downtrend resistance line.

Also on a longer 1 to 2 month timescale there is a closing wedge on bitcoin price actoin that will be closing in just under two months. TA would suggest that before it gets very near that point (so likely in the next month) it is either going to break out of that wedge distinctly downward (into the 6000s and maybe even 5000s) or distinctly upwards back to the $10k resistance. So TA suggests heading back to mid-8000s is likely in the next two weeks, and either a break down to ~6000 or a break up to challenge $10k will happen at the latest in July. A break above $8500 this month would suggest its going to test $10k soon afterward, a break below low-7000s this month (after the rise to mid-8000s) would suggest we could see $6000 soon afterward.

So in terms of trading, buy now, sell in low-to-mid 8000s. Wait. If it decisively breaks 8500 buy back in, sell mid-to-high 9000s and wait to see if it breaks $10k. Or if it decisively breaks below 7000 sell and buy back likely in the low 6000s.

Not trying to predict any long term trend here. Just using TA on the next two months given the current patterns that have been forming and that bitcoin just escaped the May downtrend the past 48 hours.

Yes something happened then, Could you please share that what force the market trend to bull suddenly ?

I've been short term bullish since the May 28th bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. I agree with the OP that breaking the downtrend line from $9,990 is another short term bullish confirmation, but for me, it's only short term.

Until we break the $10K barrier, a bearish triangle is still in play. Right now, we are hypothetically in the final intra-triangle bounce pictured here:

Not really. Even if bitcoin was able to gain some momentum this month, I doubt that any rally would be a long-lasting one under these bearish market conditions. I simply don't think that this bear market would be able to conclude within this month.

But as you said, if we see $8k or higher within the start of the month it's probably going to signal for a pump, albeit a small one.

I wouldn't say that it's a crucial day for end of the bear market, or anything like that. There is simply no evidence to suggest that we're going to welcome a bull market this soon, in my opinion.

It depends. If we look at how in a relatively calmer market mostly only somewhat skilled traders are doing their thing, technical analysis may come handy and turn out to be useful. Only when the speculation circus starts moving again, and noobs and gamblers start becoming active, technical analysis becomes worth less with every day the uncertainties become stronger. Good thing is that we don't have to force ourselves to keep staring at the price every day. I am not invested with a short term mindset, and I am not looking to execute any trades, so there is no point for me to focus on what the market is doing. I mostly don't check prices intentionally, but just see the latest prices when reading through news sites and such.

I don't really believe in technical analysis to predict bitcoin price. It has already been proven that BTC price is unpredictable.
All these charts and triangles and other stuff are really nice but they don't really mean anything.

Personally, I am a pessimist for the next days. I won't be surprised to see the price going under $7,000. Recently I am waiting July and August to see what will happen for Bitcoin

TA, which you implicitly refer to here, doesn't work very well in the cryptoverse. As much as I myself want the prices to rise and shine again, like the full moon (or even like the sun lol), there is always some dude hiding behind with a big stash of bitcoins always ready to dump them on our heads when the price ever starts to recover. I suspect the proverbial G-Man (the Gox guy) has plenty of bitcoins in his pockets yet.

To summarize, prepare for unforeseen consequences.

not to worry we will soon reach $ 8k in the next few days. keep an eye on the state of the market, with circumstances like this we are easy to take advantage.

Yes true.

Obviously I'm talking about the ~2 months, as I clearly stated in my opening post.
Just going by the closing wedge that Bitcoin has been in for like 4 months now. The wedge reaches a point in late July, and we just came off the support line of it right around $7000, and by breaking decisively above 7500 yesterday Bitcoin broke the month long downtrend resistance line that was capping it for all of May. So with that broken all I'm saying is that Bitcoin will likely rise back up in the next couple of weeks to the resistance line of this 4 month wedge (which will be around $8500. At that point it'll either fall to stay in the wedge (though the wedge is closing in 8 weeks so I think a breakout is likely this month) or break out above $8500 and if it does then the next major resistance is at $10k.

So given that yesterday did indeed break the May downward resistance, we're likely to see low-to-mid 8000s in the next couple of weeks, and if it breaks decisively above 8500 in a couple weeks then a mid-to-high 8000s buy in with a mid-to-high 9000s sell target is a good bet. Otherwise if it breaks down in the mid 8000s a mid-7000s buy target is a good setup again as it would likely head back near the bottom of the wedge at that point. Just some basic TA for the next month or so given the trends of the past few months.

Not nothing happened. The Bitcoin Cash is rising faster than the Bitcoin now. Maybe the Bitcoin will catch up.

Are you receiving real time updates about the intentions of every single BTC buyer on the whole planet?

We got an unprecedent on our hands here, folks. I for one am seriously, seriously impressed.

And neat little call for today at least, OP.

Not to forget, after that there is 700, 250, 99 and finally the $1 support could break. Have fun

what OP is saying (specifically in the end paragraph) mostly concerns the day traders and those who want to make a profit in a very short term from ups and downs not a longer term trader like those who are trading mostly as a hobby or a second job and certainly not the long term investors. for these waiting for a bigger sign and a bigger movement is a better idea.

we currently have a slow creep up towards $8000 (currently at $7734) and the $8k resistance is still there to prevent the big rise but if it is broken in the next 24 hours i can see the rise taking place like the past time we were here and a $1000 rise in 1 hour happened after $6900ish to $8000 this time it will be to $9000+

I don't know it will increase or not but if that increases to some significant level then it can bring trust on the investors because last year also the price starts to go crazy after the first half of year so prople will think that it will happen again.

The thing that happened was it reaching 7700!  It has now broken up above the month long resistance. I said if it ends the day above 7500-7600 then we know we have an outbreak and it'll head back to the top of the channel. And we got a decisive break upwards today, up to 7700s now, clearly above the resistance. It's exactly what I said.

Maybe you're looking at a different chart haha. Exactly what I said would happen is happening. The downward trend was broken and Bitcoin is now heading upwards. It's over 7700 now. The downward resistance line from this past month was down at 7500-7600. It's broken through that and like my initial post said, it will likely head to 8500 now over the next couple weeks. At that point we'll see if it has the strength to break through the longer term resistance or if it'll stay in this wedge longer. Not sure why you call that bad analysis. Seems to be pretty dang good analysis so far.

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

these are critical days only because we are in a wedge that we don't know which way it is going to go and when it comes to bitcoin it can go anywhere even if the chart is showing you some other possibility.
i say we need to see the $8k level before starting to get excited and talk about where it is going to go or we need to see the $7000 be broken if we are to talk about possibility of drops. otherwise get comfortable here with small ups and downs.

There`s no evidence that bitcoin will bounce back to 10K USD.
Your post is only about "if the btc price reaches 8,5K USD,it will go back to 10K USD".This doesn`t prove anything and it`s not what I call a good analysis.Today is June 3rd and the price is still around $7640.
Nothing important occured on June 2nd.