Tom Lee said Bitcoin Misery Index Never Been Reported in Bear Market

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legendary

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Quote from: Adriano2010 on May 01, 2019, 12:30:03 PM

We are not on bull run yet and also not on a bear market, i think now is a bit stable period and whales try to accumulate and hold for a bull run and also for small investors i think is time to buy and to hold.

We have had a bull run in 2019 and at the same time, we are still in a bear market. Wink

Bull runs don't have to result in +1000% gains and don't have to last for over a year. 50% increases in a matter of 4ish months are bull runs too. Calling the end of the bear market is very subjective, but in my opinion $6000 is the level to break, but I can also understand that people prefer higher levels as confirmation.

People wake up now the price has gone up, seriously regretting not having picked up some sub $4000 coins while they had the chance to do so.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: Adriano2010 on May 01, 2019, 12:30:03 PM

We are not on bull run yet and also not on a bear market, i think now is a bit stable period and whales try to accumulate and hold for a bull run and also for small investors i think is time to buy and to hold.

Many are calling this the start of the bullish trend, but for me, I call it the recovery, Because I think that we are in the midst of recovering the price, And we can not call a cryptocurrency and a more to that Bitcoin, A stable period I call this the less volatile period because the stable one is Fiat currency and stable coins only, Cryptocurrency and especially Bitcoin will remain volatile and nothing can really stop its volatileness It keeps on moving whether it goes up or down, But for now we see an unpredictable path as the price remains going to the resistance of the $5500 Mark.

Adriano2010

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We are not on bull run yet and also not on a bear market, i think now is a bit stable period and whales try to accumulate and hold for a bull run and also for small investors i think is time to buy and to hold.

magneto

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Quote

During the interview, Lee noted that through 2018, the BMI has not been over 50, while it now recently touched a value of 89. According to Lee, values over 67 have never taken place in a bear market.

Firstly, we don't know what the BMI actually consists of. I believe that it's supposed to measure market sentiment, but there is absolutely no publicly available data to show that this index is actually accurate in performing that function.

As a result, you have this situation where an analyst is trying to analyse the market based on an index that is created by him, with no public credibility, and an uncertain track record. Also, as others have mentioned, Tom Lee has shown a blatant disregard for market conditions in the past in his analysis and is somewhat of a mainstream, sensationalist speculator more than anything else.

I'm not saying that his prediction wouldn't pan out, because I think that it's likely a bull market will emerge within this current decade. But the process he goes through to come to his predictions is questionable at best.

tomahawk9

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Quote from: Slow death on April 22, 2019, 10:41:30 AM

I wonder how long it would take for him to go back to making super-exaggerated predictions

Shouldn't take too long. The guy knows that bullish predictions in the middle of an increasing bullish sentiment in the market will attract customers to his company. IMO the more the prices raise, the greater his ambitious will be and before we know it he'll go back to his usual 5-digit predictions to target potential high net worth clients that are looking to invest in BTC before the next bull run.

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Slow death on April 22, 2019, 10:41:30 AM

Just this year he already said this:

MAR 15, 2019

Bitcoin Price Breakout Scheduled for August, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

APR 06, 2019

Fundstrat Global Advisors Co-Founder Thomas Lee: Bitcoin Is Back in a Bullish Trend

APR 12, 2019

Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Misery Index Hits Highest Value Since 2016 in Possible Bull Signal

I wonder how long it would take for him to go back to making super-exaggerated predictions

Yeah, he 'supposedly' makes his claims by past actions on BTC. But then again if that worked..there never would have been issues with 1999

dot com crash nor this last deep recession we had that started in 2007, back when.

He has NEVER as far as I can tell, posted a 'bear' position. Just saying. Hope he is dead on, but dubious of his 'methods' on all his predictions.

Slow death

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Just this year he already said this:

MAR 15, 2019

Bitcoin Price Breakout Scheduled for August, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

APR 06, 2019

Fundstrat Global Advisors Co-Founder Thomas Lee: Bitcoin Is Back in a Bullish Trend

APR 12, 2019

Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Misery Index Hits Highest Value Since 2016 in Possible Bull Signal

I wonder how long it would take for him to go back to making super-exaggerated predictions

Beerwizzard

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Transaction activity does not determine Bitcoin price. People can send BTC to each other, buy some goods in shops or exchange it on p2p exchanges like localbitcoins that does not have their own rates and does not determine the BTC price. BTC doesn't have to rise in this case.
BMI is also not a public thing so we don't know how it is calculated and it may be either wrong or used in attempts to manipulate the market.

dothebeats

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Tom Lee has always been bullish for bitcoin despite the prevalence of bearish sentiments lingering all over the market even though his predictions are a bit off from the movement of the market, yet he never swayed position, ever. BMI was created in order to gauge the market sentiment for bitcoin at a given period in time, and maybe this is just me but I think the said index is biased towards the side of the bulls that's why things don't favor the bears on this one. Anyway, the market seems to be shifting towards a bullish movement lately, and that is evidenced by the thinning sells and aggressive buys (though it's a shame that we haven't crossed $5500 resistance yet after so many attempts recently.)

BrewMaster

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Tom Lee literary invented the misery index for bitcoin to justify his speculations which mostly were wrong in the past specifically during 2018 which he insisted on setting a new ATH by the end of that year which was clearly impossible although he didn't want to accept it.
now he is doing the same thing although this time he is at least going with the market instead of against it like in 2018 since price is already rising.

takngantuk

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Quote from: pushups44 on April 21, 2019, 03:07:52 PM

Tom Lee was overly optimistic last year, but his long-term bullishness is warranted. The price of bitcoin just happens to be extremely difficult to predict given that it is a new asset just starting to define itself. I agree with him that more likely than not we are in a bull market with the price above the 200 DMA.

last year he was indeed too optimistic. but for the future I agree with you the bull will come as soon as possible. still many people believe in bitcoin and the number continues to increase every day. if not this year, maybe a bull will happen next year. considering there is a big agenda that will happen to bitcoin. that could be the main reason for the next bull.

DBronze98

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The analysis from famous analysts is always true. Based on the analysis they give correct or approximate results when they anticipate the next trend of the market. The transaction volume of Bitcoin has increased by 80% this month when rising from $ 8B to $ 14B. I believe in the prediction: "It means that a bull market is starting. "

Bitinity

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Should we care about his prediction after he did it really wrong last year? To be honest, I never care about price prediction by everyone no matter he is a bitcoin/crypto expert or something else.

Haunebu

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Quote from: Yaunfitda on April 21, 2019, 11:47:30 PM

I really like Tom Lee's bullish sentiments, but sometimes you have to draw the line between a realistic predictions and perma-bulls exorbitant price forecast. Grin

@Remainder, we have been in the bullish and breaking resistance for the last 7 weeks, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-posts-seven-consecutive-weeks-of-gains-5129663. We are somewhat entering the 10th week if I'm not mistaken.

How is his prediction not realistic? Did he mention that Bitcoin will touch $10k or $20k in a few months? Clearly not. In many ways, his prediction is completely realistic since many are excited about the upcoming halvening event next year which can start a huge rally.

antisocial77

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market doesnt care what those speculators says anymore. positive nor negative it doesnt matter.because all we know that they tries to manipulate people as they will.

Yaunfitda

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I really like Tom Lee's bullish sentiments, but sometimes you have to draw the line between a realistic predictions and perma-bulls exorbitant price forecast. Grin

@Remainder, we have been in the bullish and breaking resistance for the last 7 weeks, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-posts-seven-consecutive-weeks-of-gains-5129663. We are somewhat entering the 10th week if I'm not mistaken.

Remainder

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Quote from: DreamStage on April 21, 2019, 02:59:39 PM

He concluded: “It means that a bull market is likely starting.”

According to Lee, there are various reasons for the recent trend inversion in the crypto market. For instance, he mentioned that old and wealthy bitcoin wallets have recently started adding BTC, and that transaction activity has begun increasing along with crypto exchange volumes.

Tom Lee: “Bitcoin Can Retain Its Old Highs” Interview: https://youtu.be/uv9fyNAbVBo

Full News Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-current-bitcoin-misery-index-never-been-reported-in-bear-market

I thought for the past 3 weeks, BTC prices breaks resistance level from time to time and reaches a new highs. Base on the charts and the sentiments of a lot of holders like me, the psychological effect is to respond to the small bullish signals that is currently present.

joshv06

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Quote from: fuathan on April 21, 2019, 04:23:12 PM

We are not in the bull market. Also, we are not in the bear market. We are somewhere in the middle and from this point, we will only have a bull market in the near future.

Halvening will support that too... My prediction (and also time trend says that too) is the bull market will start in 2-3 months. In a year, a mega-bull market will start sometime around November 2020.

You are right, we are in the Middle phase of the market which looks like a descent one in the second quarter, and I personally feel the value will pump again in the third quarter if this happen then I am sure we can see a massive pump in the last quarter.

carlisle1

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Quote from: ?? on ??

"Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee pointed out that the value currently reported by his company’s bitcoin sentiment indicator Bitcoin Misery Index has never been seen in a bear market.
During the interview, Lee noted that through 2018, the BMI has not been over 50, while it now recently touched a value of 89. According to Lee, values over 67 have never taken place in a bear market.
He concluded: “It means that a bull market is likely starting.”
According to Lee, there are various reasons for the recent trend inversion in the crypto market. For instance, he mentioned that old and wealthy bitcoin wallets have recently started adding BTC, and that transaction activity has begun increasing along with crypto exchange volumes."

Be carefull with all this opinions and charts and speculation they can create anxiety and then you may end up selling your coins too early.
If you watch the long term price of BTC, the only thing you need to do, is hold your BTC and some altcoins and you will be fine.

Is this a quote or you just re type the body of the topic to make your post look like long?better edit this now or you will suffer the consequences

Tom Lee has been a bullish in regards to crypto and ofcourse specially with bitcoin things that normal to the man,and i agree on this release than we are maybe in bullmarket as the prices seemingly not in a normal movement but we must always remember that all of this are speculative and nothing is proven unless things happens

jubilarian

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I think what he said to reference Cheesy

. I have only followed the chart and price line to predict. Let's see what happened in 2017 and first of 2018, a lot of positive price but the result is bearish market.

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