Tom Lee's final analysis of the year - page 2.

el kaka22

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Quote from: davis196 on December 16, 2018, 01:57:22 AM

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).

You cannot assume a fair value for bitcoin but it should be derived based on few bitcoin ecosystem parameters like the total active wallets/address, in and out per address and factors which are determining the supply. Even it is an approximate estimation, it is similar to any commodity/stocks/bonds' fair value calculations. Moreover, everything in this world may have a fair value but it is an rough-estimate of actual value. "Fair-value" is a most common term in trading houses.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 15, 2018, 10:00:18 PM

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k.

Any bitcoiner who is following the markets for years, will definitely say that the current prices are a definite wrong. I like Tom Lee's faith on bitcoin's future and that is the reason he still has not changed his year end predictions. I believe he will be at least 50% true with his price levels by end of this year.

Herbert2020

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Quote from: hahay on December 18, 2018, 11:40:04 PM

What about the increase that is happening now, is that possible if the predictions will become a reality?
Although it seems impossible, but I hope the prediction will at least be close to the predicted value at the end of the year and I'm ready to sell. Cheesy

most of these predictions were outrageously high. like for example Tom Lee has been speculating a new ATH by the end of this year not just a regular rise. a regular rise would have been more possible (like going back up above $9k) but setting a new ATH is simply not going to happen soon after a big bubble burst like what we had this year.

hahay

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What about the increase that is happening now, is that possible if the predictions will become a reality?
Although it seems impossible, but I hope the prediction will at least be close to the predicted value at the end of the year and I'm ready to sell. Cheesy

WinslowIII

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 15, 2018, 10:00:18 PM

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.

Bullish Tom Lee

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

Read the full article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

If that isn't a face that just got wrecked I don't know what is. I guess a noose around his neck would give the ultimate wrecked face. Let's face it, this dude needs to just stfu and watch like the rest of us.

bbc.reporter

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@BrewMaster. Yes it is. However, it is only because he has no other strategy but to be a bagholder.

Bagholders have become the most ardent supporters of the coin they are holding. I would expect Tom Lee to be our loudest supporter on 2019 hehehe.

BrewMaster

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 17, 2018, 08:11:03 PM

@timerland. I predict Tom Lee's next statement would be Hold, you cannot lose if you don't sell hehehe. That advice is good for bitcoin and some cryptocoins, however it would also be showing the bagholders' attitude of giving up and blindly holding on.

saying "hold" now is not a bad suggestion actually! and it doesn't make you a bag holder if you hold now. right now is not the bubble burst of $20k that makes holding bad, there is no drop going on either. we are 80% down already.
in fact selling now makes you a dumb person. it would be like going to a party after the party is over, everyone has left, the food is gone and then start wooing your way in Cheesy

cellard

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Quote from: timerland on December 17, 2018, 06:10:57 PM

Lmao. Can't believe that he actually is blaming the "markets" for not reaching the price targets that he has constantly set.

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“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

No one is asking them for target prices. He is the one that is putting it out there for mainstream media to make articles on. He is also the one that has constantly changing his predictions, without any tangible backing.

With such a bearish sentimented market, I really don't see any chance that bitcoin will be able to rebound to its "fair value" (which he randomly set at $13k-14k, again without any actual analysis backing it) any time in the near future.

Market prices are never determined by a "fair value", it's never that simple. Also, there is no absolute "fair value". IIRC, even he had predictions of BTC going way above the fair value estimate by the end of the year, although that prediction has been replaced by many more new ones now.

It would be cool if guys like this sold. I don't really know who Tom Lee is beyond some asian guy that goes on CNBC to talk about Bitcoin from time to time so im not going to judge him, what I mean is that generally, it's a good sign when we see "famous bitcoin people" selling, because that is how markets typically capitulate. Case in point, this idiot just said that Bitcoin is dead and whatnot:

https://www.ccn.com/teenage-crypto-millionaire-erik-finman-says-bitcoin-is-pretty-much-dead-offers-hope-for-bitcoin-cash/

I wonder if he got paid by Ver to shill his BCash and whatever other altcoins he's holding. Anyway, idiots with big tweeter megaphones selling on a bear market: Get ready to buy, we are nearing the bottom.

bbc.reporter

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@timerland. I predict Tom Lee's next statement would be Hold, you cannot lose if you don't sell hehehe. That advice is good for bitcoin and some cryptocoins, however it would also be showing the bagholders' attitude of giving up and blindly holding on.

timerland

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Lmao. Can't believe that he actually is blaming the "markets" for not reaching the price targets that he has constantly set.

Quote

“We are tired of people asking us about target prices,” he said, declining to update his year-end forecast.

No one is asking them for target prices. He is the one that is putting it out there for mainstream media to make articles on. He is also the one that has constantly changing his predictions, without any tangible backing.

With such a bearish sentimented market, I really don't see any chance that bitcoin will be able to rebound to its "fair value" (which he randomly set at $13k-14k, again without any actual analysis backing it) any time in the near future.

Market prices are never determined by a "fair value", it's never that simple. Also, there is no absolute "fair value". IIRC, even he had predictions of BTC going way above the fair value estimate by the end of the year, although that prediction has been replaced by many more new ones now.

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Quote from: vit05 on December 17, 2018, 03:28:02 PM

I prefer the analyzes where the trader puts that up to a certain price he is buying, selling or maintaining position. To say that the price is unfair is extremely irrational. You do not have all the information to say exactly why others are selling at a certain price.

I think Tom is just on tilt due to the recent crash and he's acting emotional. He's not in top form right now. For his sake, I sure hope he hasn't actually been holding big positions based on his perma-bullish outlook.

His outlook is based on this crazy idea about correlation to number of wallets:

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“In fact, working backwards, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”

Not only does the number of wallets never fall, but it doesn't say anything about who's buying or selling and in what amounts. Roll Eyes

vit05

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I prefer the analyzes where the trader puts that up to a certain price he is buying, selling or maintaining position. To say that the price is unfair is extremely irrational. You do not have all the information to say exactly why others are selling at a certain price.

I am buying with the value below the 4k. And I will only review my position when the price is above 6k

LeGaulois

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He was trying to avoid the "I admit I have been wrong all the year" Cheesy

His problem is he's living in 2018 with his BTC 2013 lifestyle He's still smart, even if I don't always agree with him.
If a fair value is something that buyers agree to pay then a buyer will say $1 is a fair price and the seller will say $50k is mine...
when BTC was at 10k people agreed, $15k-$20k too. So the fair price should be at least $20k, no? in reality, the fair price depends on the supply/demand...

BTW just to add that "Fair price" is a term often used in finance

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... used in two different contexts. One is as a synonym for fair value, a theoretically unbiased valuation of an asset which may differ from its current market price. A second meaning of fair price is that at which demand and supply for a futures contract are equal.

The fair price, or fair value, of an asset is an economic concept. It aims to give an objective valuation of the asset rather than simply going by the current market price. Whereas the market price is determined solely by supply and demand, the fair price takes into account the costs of the individual components of the asset. In the case of a business this could include land, machinery, stock and staff levels.

The fair price may also take into account the value of whatever is produced by an asset, whether that be production from a physical asset, or financial return from a financial asset. There may also be more subjective elements in assessing fair value, such as how useful an asset is to a particular potential buyer. For example, a fishmonger would place a higher value on a store with easy access to a port than a baker would place on the same store.

https://www.wisegeek.com/in-finance-what-is-a-fair-price.htm

cellard

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Quote from: davis196 on December 16, 2018, 01:57:22 AM

"fair price"?WTF?There's no such thing as a fair price.
My assumption of a fair bitcoin price would be 50K USD,but it won't happen(probably in the next 3 years).
I guess that Tom Lee just wants to spread some optimism amongst the small traders/newbies.He doesn't want to make a proper analysis.

Please, don't be deluded enough to think Bitcoin's price isn't heavily manipulated. As long as Bitcoin is measured in a currency whose supply is controlled by some obscure private banking group, why would anyone trust that the price is a clean supply and (real) demand of the asset?

Let's see, what did they say when they were going to launch the futures and why did they even agree to launch them on the first place?

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“That’s a very important step for bitcoin’s history... We will regulate, make bitcoin not wild, nor wilder. We’ll tame it into a regular type instrument of trade with rules,”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cme-group-bitcoin/cmes-melamed-sees-bitcoin-becoming-new-asset-class-idUSKBN1D712M?

Sems pretty clear to me. The good news is, hard money always wins long term, so buy the dip and hodl.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: gentlemand on December 16, 2018, 04:04:49 PM

I hope his family is keeping a close eye on him. There's a chance he may self immolate on NYE as this year has been nothing more than a repeated stomping on his willy as he's dug himself deeper and deeper. I like this new 'it's the MARKET that's wrong' approach. It might just pull him back from the edge.

haha, that was a nice touch indeed. he's had a rough year with the bitcoin calls. maybe he's lashing out a bit.

i wouldn't worry about him too much though. his company deals mainly with the equity markets, and he's had a long, respectable career on wall street as an equities analyst. i think he just just gets invited on fast money because he's willing to talk about crypto.

gentlemand

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I hope his family is keeping a close eye on him. There's a chance he may self immolate on NYE as this year has been nothing more than a repeated stomping on his willy as he's dug himself deeper and deeper. I like this new 'it's the MARKET that's wrong' approach. It might just pull him back from the edge.

1Referee

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Tom Lee's final analysis should be; I messed up. I'm sorry. I'm out. Adios!

He's really the kind of person to keep making predictions till he's right, because if he goes on long enough, eventually he will be right. I'm sure mainstream media channels such as CNBC bring him in just to make fun of him and his predictions. It's sad to see that he's letting them make money over his 'confidence' in metrics that don't apply to this market at all, or at least, not right now.

This once again shows that it doesn't matter what your background in economics and markets in general is, crypto predictions regardless of their level of analysis remain a wild guess.

exstasie

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Poor Tom Lee. He sure doesn't look too happy in that picture.

Quote from: butka on December 16, 2018, 04:17:12 AM

This "fair price" he is mentioning is a really weird term. From the article, however, it seems that he has a working model for determining the price, correlating the number of current bitcoin wallets with the bitcoin price. He says that the current price doesn't reflect the number of wallets currently installed:

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“In fact, working backwards, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”

He goes on and makes an even bolder statement:

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If Bitcoin wallets approach just 7 percent of Visa’s 4.5 billion account holders, fair value would be $150,000 per Bitcoin

What a bizarre analysis! No wonder he's always wrong. Tongue

I'm not sure where he's getting his numbers from, but Blockchain.com puts their total wallet users at 31.5 million. That number can be gamed pretty easily, and it doesn't fall when people stop using their wallets! It's also not clear how many wallet users actually bought or used Bitcoin, or if those buyers are offsetting all the OTC and exchange sellers.

Get a new system, Tom!

clrpod

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 15, 2018, 10:00:18 PM

In any case, he also said that the market is wrong. He reasons that the price of bitcoin is below its fair value of $13k - $14k. However, I reckon the real price should be the price that the buyer wants to pay for, not what an analyst wants hehehe.

Market price is always the fair price, as you said. If enough people really believed it should be higher then it would be higher, vice versa lower. How does one even determine a fair value that is not the market price? What makes it fair?

Pab

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If Warren Buffet will say that fair bitcoin price is realistic 25k $ than btc price will be 25k
I guess no
Invisible hand of market does Tomy Lee ever heard about it
bitcoin trading is pure capitalism like Wall Street was very long time ago
We even didn't have our crypto Black Friday
For me it is similar how it was before previous halving
Price went down from 1200$ to even 180$ and couldn't pass 300$ for very long time
It looks like cycle Tomy Lee is any real analyst

xuv500

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These analysis are longer exist in my opinion as we are seeing the reality of crypto this year, The market is unpredictable at the moment also I hope you people's remember what macafee said. Speculations gave lot of happiness to the investors but in reality it is different.

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