Too late to buy? - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

antimattercrusader

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: Loki8 on November 07, 2013, 08:28:10 PM

BTC is too high and volatile, and it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

*spits out beer* *snooorrrtt* *snicker* heh hehehh hahahhaAHAHAHHA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHHAAAH *ahem* sorry.

Anyway, stock prices AND BITCOIN prices are based on investors exceptions of the future of the company/currency. While I cannot predict the future, if bitcoin were to become mainstream buying now would be like buying Microsoft when bill gates was making computers in his garage. The upside is huge. Most stocks don't offer this kind of upside potential. As for risk, it's speculative. Both stocks and bitcoin can fail.

derpinheimer

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Loki8 on November 07, 2013, 08:28:10 PM

BTC is too high and volatile, and it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

Well, yeah, unlike something with backing it could go to single digits overnight....

But, its unlikely. Very. Unlikely. So, quit QQing and accept your losses. I have and I'm much happier taking them then sitting here watch the ship set sail:)

Loki8

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

BTC is too high and volatile, and it's based on nothing more than pure gambling.

Rather, you should invest in Stocks if you have much money right now (Twitter shares surge 73% on market debut). There is much less risk...
Stock prices are also based on gambling but also on investors' expectations of the future value of a company.

mvidetto

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

I'm considering buying now as well, but I also have a fairly large portion of bitcoins. If you believe they will continue to rise theres no reason not to buy now.

Siegfried

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

Quote from: superduh on November 07, 2013, 05:35:03 PM

you are making an assumption that things will repeat proportionally. i give this 0% chance.

The past does not predict the future; similarities are coincidental.

greaterninja

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

I believe it was $30-$80 in march...so how was it $13 in april?

Ibian

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1278

Buy. As much as you can regardless of price. It was too late TWO YEARS AGO for this standard of "too late". Don't lose out on the possibility of a lifetime.

Wary

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

BitchicksHusband, superduh - thanks.

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

you are making an assumption that things will repeat proportionally. i give this 0% chance.

BitchicksHusband

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 255

Quote from: Wary on November 07, 2013, 05:28:50 PM

In April it started from 13.4$, went to 266$ (base x 19.8 ) then dived to 55$ (base x 4.1).
Now it started at 140$ (you can see it clearly at year's chart with 1-week bars).

How deep will be the dive this time?

Can we expect that the proportions of peak/dive will be the same as in April, in log scale?
That is if peak will be, say, half of April's, (i.e. base x 9.9), then the dive will be half of April's too (i.e. base x 2.05).

Then, if we'll have peak at $600 (x 4.3 from the base 140), the dive will be to 280$.
(I'ts 140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(4.3)/ln(19.8 )))))
For the peak of 1000$ the dive is 350$ (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(7)/ln(19.8 ))))).
For the peak of 1600$ the dive is 440$ (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(11.4)/ln(19.8 ))))))

So, if you:
-have some fiat
-expect the proportionality
-expect the peak at $600

Then, instead of buying for 310$ now, you should bid for somewhere above 280$ and just wait.

I think this is a reasonably good analysis. But when BTC is $10,000 are you really going to care whether you bought them at $310 or $280? (They're $280 on BTC-e right now.)

Just buy some ASAP and hold them. The boards are full of people who are kicking themselves because they missed their price point by < $10 and then never bought.

Wary

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

In April it started from 13.4$, went to 266$ (base x 19.8 ) then dived to 55$ (base x 4.1).
Now it started at 140$ (you can see it clearly at year's chart with 1-week bars).

How deep will be the dive this time?

Can we expect that the proportions of peak/dive will be the same as in April, in log scale?
That is if peak will be, say, half of April's, (i.e. base x 9.9), then the dive will be half of April's too (i.e. base x 2.05).

Then, if we'll have peak at $600 (x 4.3 from the base 140), the dive will be to 280$.
(I'ts 140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(4.3)/ln(19.8 )))))
For the peak of 1000$ the dive is 350$ (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(7)/ln(19.8 ))))).
For the peak of 1600$ the dive is 440$ (140$ * (exp(ln(4.1) * (ln(11.4)/ln(19.8 ))))))

So, if you:
-have some fiat
-expect the proportionality
-expect the peak at $600

Then, instead of buying for 310$ now, you should bid for somewhere above 280$ and just wait.

Topic: Too late to buy? - page 4. (Read 6342 times)