Topic: Too many people are short term bullish, rather than long term bullish. (Read 1517 times)

I absolutely agree with this view, it's been my opinion for a long while too. I think it would be IMPOSSIBLE for a commodity like bitcoin to grow in any other way than through a series of increasing bubbles. It's a pattern that will essentially "continue until it doesn't".

BTW can't we be both short AND long term bullish?

Far too much dough to be had from the good old pump n dump routine for that to happen anytime soon.

But the fact that bulls think a bubble will happen doesn't make it their fault if it does, LOL. It seems bitcoin has experienced these cycles in the past, so it is natural to think it might happen again in the future.

Joe Blow gets afraid of "scary" volatility.  He won't get in because it's too different from what he is used to.  And he doesn't have the vision to see what bitcoin will become.  It's like all the people that can't buy an empty house because they can't envision it the way they want it.  A stager HAS TO fill the house with rented furniture or they will never buy it.

This is the same with bitcoin.  We are the visionaries.  We see what is coming.  But it's a free market and if the TERAs of the world want to make quick bucks here and there off every little pump and dump instead of buying and holding (which would be a smoother transition), then nobody can stop them.  And that's OK.

But the bubbles are great positive news for media attention, as are the stories of buying houses for $20, which is ultimately what causes more people to get involved in bitcoin.

And I am seeing a big difference all of a sudden.  I read an article where people were talking about not being able to get their money out of their bank account and suddenly lots of posts were recommending emptying your bank account and putting it in bitcoin because you can't trust the bankers.  That's huge that bitcoin is becoming the default answer to people frustrated with their banks.

If you are willing to entertain the assumption that bitcoin will live up to its promise of worldwide adoption within, oh, 5 or 10 years or so (so that it is used to process a large percentage of daily transactions throughout the world), then it is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE for bitcoin's value to be what it is today. It MUST be many orders of magnitude higher; otherwise, it won't get the job done. It would be like trying to run an aircraft carrier on a gallon of gas a day: technically impossible.

It would be nice if we could avoid the volatility during these first few years, but we can't. Steady exponential growth without the cycles of bubble-burst would be preferable and maybe achievable (people who follow the advice of Risto and SlipperySlope actually help to smooth out these cycles) but (1) mass worldwide adoption and (2) steady price at CURRENT levels are mutually exclusive.

If you are going to invest in bitcoin, it is absolutely crucial to understand the above. Unless you enjoy having a heart attack every time we get into a downtrend.

Thanks for all my commentors. I did not intentionally bump post (I know piramida was probably the last comment for this thread). I wanted to respond to mostly everyone.

I make these posts to hear your thoughts in discussions. I just want to clarify that I am not saying the growth is bad, just the way people on here (please re read my original post on here carefully) are saying that it will go to 2k-10k soon. I am not against that but I think a more long term bullish mindset would be better.

And this is my opinion. You all can disagree or agree with me, but please just read my original post and this one to understand what I am saying (not against the growth, just the exponential growth people expect).

Thank you all for reading and comments or PM's about any of my points are welcome.

individual comment response below
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lynn_402
I agree with you slow and steady wins the race. These swings may be nice but a a steady uptrend may be healthier

wolf rainer
you can make legit points that bitcoin needs fast rises for global attention. I disagree that adoption needs the fast rises. I prefer to use on a daily bases something that keeps its value because I might be worried if it gets too volatile.

blatchcorn
i agree

peter r
thanks for responding on my forum, I like your posts and you are a respectable member on here.
I agree with the facts about how natural the market volatility is.

bitchickhusband
I like your posts and bitchicks posts as well. I lock my threads so I can start a new topic the following (or the next) day. If I had too many posts, I would clog this forum. Most of my threads get a few comments then become dead anyway.

2-5k next month (not next year) would be nice. I am not against but the way I look at is from anothers perspective. If I am joe blow and I want to store any value (or use the payment center). I would either just buy to store (and hope for a return or perhaps a loss) and I believe cryptos are for alternative payment rather than just speculation.

I agree with what you said about "us" being early in this new tech. I am not complaining about the volatility. Most of my threads are asking questions. This thread was about asking if short term bullish mindsets are healthy for bitcoin in the long run. I do not mind the swings.

anyways great comments on posts and i plan to read your other comments on posts (you are knowledgeable)

zoinky
I agree with your "this is how it is" thing. I also like your other posts. I appreciate the comment.

zimmah
First of all, thanks for regularly posting on my posts. Its not that I do not like exponential growth, I am talking about the way my fellow bitcointalk buddies are expecting such vast returns in a short amount of time. I believe the older guys had it right (a post I read when it was at 30 and people expected a slow growth and 1000 at 2016).

But, I respect everything you said.

xDan
I agree with infrastructure taking time to build.

wachtwoord
I agree

piramida
I appreciate the comment of both you and wachtwoord (I read a lot of you guys posts and you guys seem spot on). You are correct in terms of things happening faster etc.

There was a good explanation several years ago. Imagine something needs to go from zero (beginning) to gazillion ("fair" value). It can't just slowly grow to gazillion in 2020 because as Risto said once everyone notices that it will do that, they will try to jump on the train before the others - human nature - and since no governing body can fix the price or close the markets, you get overexcitement runs (when you deviate much from your slow trend to gazillion in 2020), followed by busts, but on average it is pretty clear that we are, in fact, slowly and steadily climbing upwards.

Only bears can't seem to see that, but on the other hand, they do sleep in caves for like 90% of their lives, so there's pretty much everything else that they don't see as well.

Exactly this. It's the first time in history this is happening at this speed. Very exciting

Yeah, I'm honestly long term bullish. The infrastructure takes time to be built.

It's still nice to get excited though... And who knows? Maybe long term bullish is so extraordinarily high that $5000 this year is modest

Exactly, if you don't like exponential growth, don't become an early adopter. This counts for any successful industry. Anything that is new and successful grows exponentially for a while. The fact that bitcoin has exponential growth means it's still in the 'early' phase and it's successful.

This is what bootstrapping a new world economy looks like.  The bubble cycle will be exacerbated by people learning it.  Strap in because triple digits soon face the same fate as single and double digits did.

in before the inevitable thread locking...

Think about this. What do you think it would have happened if bitcoin never gets to media? And it gets to the media because of the fast raises.

Am I in before the thread lock?

No, most of us are talking $2000-$5000 by next MONTH, not next year.

Everybody hates change.  And you guys seem to hate getting the opportunity to invest early in a new technology for the first time in the history of the world.  With returns that have never been possible in history to average people like us.  And all you can do is complain that that involves a little bit of volatility?

If you want slow and steady, go buy an S&P 500 Index Fund.  Otherwise, this is what adoption looks like.

Right, so if ever bitcoin begins to grow nicely at "only" 100% per year and with low volatility, few people would continue to sell but many people would begin to buy, resulting in another uber bubble! 

Avoiding bitcoin's booms and busts are impossible in a free market.  Booms and busts are in fact an important part of bitcoin's redistribution mechanism: the booms attract new users, while the busts motivate earlier adopters to realize some of their potentially-ephemeral gains. 

Yeah to be fair fast rises normally mean fast crashes too.  Nothing beats long steady growth really for serious investors that have other people's pensions at stake

I don't believe it does. These fast raises seem to bring a way too big amount of "gamblers" rather than serious investors.

Bitcoin needs that fast raises to gain global attention and adoption.

Yes. These short-term überbulls contribute greatly to Bitcoin's lack of credibility as a currency, imho. A slow and steady growth would be much better for everyone, and would alleviate the fears that we are in a bubble.

No.