Total Hashrate Forecast Q1, Q2 2014 (Community work) - page 2.

ujka

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Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Quote from: baddw on February 14, 2014, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: de_ixie on February 14, 2014, 08:11:18 AM

Quote from: BuildTheFuture on February 13, 2014, 01:28:03 AM

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

Good point - highly likely the top two eligius contributers (~2 PH) are KnC

People were claiming that the 2nd one (1Nbq) was Bitmain / Antminer. They've been a heavy hitter in Eligius for a longer period, a few weeks at least, and they ramped up from ~500TH. The 1st one (1A73) just hit within the last week.

Top Eligius contributor(s), in one tx
https://blockchain.info/tx/026f92da78db19fe561a05f0a77104619783452a8f24a4efed8719abd9553a95?show_adv=false

de_ixie

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Activity: 206

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Reminder to self: Bitmine capacity confirmed 50unit/day a 1TH (=1-1.5PH/ month)

bolverk

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Activity: 52

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Quote from: ssbn506 on February 20, 2014, 01:35:06 PM

Quote from: EricKennedy on February 11, 2014, 10:19:54 AM

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

I think by the time hardware is decommissioned it will be so small as to not be noticed. For example if you try to find when cup mining stopped or gpu mining stopped. If everyone turned off their 300kh usb keys difficult will go up by 25% vs 25.3% next change. When 10gh blades are turned off it will be and increase of 25% vs 26% at next difficulty ect.

A lot of that old hardware is being sold to suckers on ebay, so even the unprofitable hashing power will stay around awhile. Well, at least until Mom gets the electricity bill... ;-)

BuildTheFuture

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Activity: 195

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Peta-mine has begun deployment, also announcing they are designing their own boards to work with a large supply of A1 chips.

http://www.peta-mine.co/petamine-will-deploy-700-ths-or-8-68-ghs-per-share/

ssbn506

newbie

Activity: 48

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Quote from: EricKennedy on February 11, 2014, 10:19:54 AM

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

I think by the time hardware is decommissioned it will be so small as to not be noticed. For example if you try to find when cup mining stopped or gpu mining stopped. If everyone turned off their 300kh usb keys difficult will go up by 25% vs 25.3% next change. When 10gh blades are turned off it will be and increase of 25% vs 26% at next difficulty ect.

BuildTheFuture

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Activity: 195

Merit: 100

hashfast selling 2 TH version of Sierra due in April

http://hashfast.com/shop/sierraevo/

MANofthePEOPLE

full member

Activity: 182

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With all the Chinese miners at 1TH that have hit the forums lately coming out march/april it seems close to impossible to actually track and make any decent estimates? Who knows how much they will deliver

Aexcu

full member

Activity: 130

Merit: 100

Quote from: Aexcu on February 14, 2014, 06:04:00 PM

It's true that they've been claimed to be that Eligius address, however they are currently (also?!) mining in BTCGuild -> AntMiner -> 353,536.97 GH/s.

It seems that the AntMiner team is running at 969,515.18 GH/s now (ID 431 474).

BuildTheFuture

full member

Activity: 195

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ASICMiner gen 3 hardware pre-sales may be starting:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5153058

~$1800/TH, 600 watts/TH, due by Apr 20th.

Aexcu

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Activity: 130

Merit: 100

Quote from: BuildTheFuture on February 14, 2014, 05:13:04 PM

I don't think Bitmain is at Eligius... couple reasons. 1, when you get an antminer from them it always has their default pool settings still in it from their "testing". It looks like they have their own pool probably. 2, they recently sold off a big chunk of their farm when they sold several thousand units in the past month, yet that Eligius user keeps growing.

It's true that they've been claimed to be that Eligius address, however they are currently (also?!) mining in BTCGuild -> AntMiner -> 353,536.97 GH/s.

BuildTheFuture

full member

Activity: 195

Merit: 100

KNC has opened up ordering on another 1000 Neptune units:

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-76

edit: some speculation that most or all of this is due to current customer canceled orders, so it may be a wash in terms of extra hashrate.

BuildTheFuture

full member

Activity: 195

Merit: 100

I don't think Bitmain is at Eligius... couple reasons. 1, when you get an antminer from them it always has their default pool settings still in it from their "testing". It looks like they have their own pool probably. 2, they recently sold off a big chunk of their farm when they sold several thousand units in the past month, yet that Eligius user keeps growing.

ujka

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

I remember I read about that - 1Nbq beeing Bitmain, started deploying december 6th,
1A73 started february 5th, and 7 days later was at 1 THash.

baddw

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Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: de_ixie on February 14, 2014, 08:11:18 AM

Quote from: BuildTheFuture on February 13, 2014, 01:28:03 AM

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

Good point - highly likely the top two eligius contributers (~2 PH) are KnC

People were claiming that the 2nd one (1Nbq) was Bitmain / Antminer. They've been a heavy hitter in Eligius for a longer period, a few weeks at least, and they ramped up from ~500TH. The 1st one (1A73) just hit within the last week.

de_ixie

full member

Activity: 206

Merit: 100

Quote from: BuildTheFuture on February 13, 2014, 01:28:03 AM

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

Good point - highly likely the top two eligius contributers (~2 PH) are KnC

BuildTheFuture

full member

Activity: 195

Merit: 100

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

BuildTheFuture

full member

Activity: 195

Merit: 100

Sometime before my gear reaches its efficiency limit I plan to sell it off. There's always folks out there with access to free electricity who will buy it.

de_ixie

full member

Activity: 206

Merit: 100

Quote from: EricKennedy on February 11, 2014, 10:19:54 AM

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

I am remember someone calculatiing that at current BC pricetag even the least energy efficient asics out there are still profitable until multiple b difficulty. If this is true people will not turn them off. Would be glad in case someone could dig this out. Will also keep my eyes open on that point

EricKennedy

sr. member

Activity: 360

Merit: 250

CEO, Ledger

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

de_ixie

full member

Activity: 206

Merit: 100

OP update - Thanks for the ongoing effort

Topic: Total Hashrate Forecast Q1, Q2 2014 (Community work) - page 2. (Read 16675 times)