Pages:
Author

Topic: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - SWITCH TO BPI ON JULY 15 !!! - page 65. (Read 241385 times)

legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
I am LOVING the action in the market these days.  It feels like the actions of setting a true bottom, alongside the necessary sentiment shift of increased confidence and hope (greed).

Sell @ 274.83

It's great to see consistent movement
Was napping for a while now I can do 8 hour plays in and out of assets with relative price movement as well Smiley
Looks like its going to dip again a bit more so positioning again Smiley
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
full member
Activity: 189
Merit: 100
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
FWIW, I'm anticipating a bounce to around 274.xx, followed by a decline to our true bottom on volume (whether 180, 200, 220)...then a challenge of 320.
Biggest risk here is that the bounce to 274 happens before this 8 hour window! (But I'm thinking slow climb, 6-24 hours).
Overall, I am LOVING the action in the market these days.  It feels like the actions of setting a true bottom, alongside the necessary sentiment shift of increased confidence and hope (greed).
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
sr. member
Activity: 323
Merit: 250
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
I finally made it to top 4 for now. If price keeps tanking though then down I go!

Ah was wondering if I past you there myself but looks like it was a few pennys short this run enjoy the spot.
And technically depends on the sorting measure as noted a few posts up

i start updating now, the colored ranks will be gone again until the next activity check Wink

Thanks for updating  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
i start updating now, the colored ranks will be gone again until the next activity check Wink

edit: all updated

Next Activity check: START 2015-03-15 00:00 UTC / END 2015-03-18 23:59:00 UTC
every post between NOW and the end of the activity check counts as "being active"
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
World Class Cryptonaire
I finally made it to top 4 for now. If price keeps tanking though then down I go!
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
Safe 8 Hours passed
Back on the other side with some upside and downside potential
BUY @ 271.69
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
re: % vs. absolute gains.

It's the old question: who is the "better" trader? The guy who made a profit of 200% over some time span, but is trading with trivial amounts, or the one who manages to squeeze out a meager, say, 50% over the same time, but did so with a much bigger position.

In "real life", cost of trading factors in heavily, so the two types are sort of incomparable: if trader (a) manages to sustain those huge profits on his small position long enough, he will eventually get to the size of trader (b), in which case they become comparable.

Meh, long story for what I actually want to say: since this is a zero trading cost game (which is fine, it just means it rewards trading often slightly more than real life), and you can trade your (virtual) position identically whether it's 1 BTC or 1000, I'm actually thinking the default order should be percentage gain anyway. (and, no, doesn't make a difference for me personally. I won't be among the first 10 in either case Tongue)


(EDIT) wait... how about:

(current position, USD value - starting position, USD value) / starting position, USD value = relative gains

(current date - starting date of player) in days = playing time

(relative gains / playing time)*365 = annualized relative gains of player <= default sorting order

Someone look over it to see if I made a mistake, bit of a brain fog day....


nevermind, it's BS Cheesy

(EDIT 2) Top 20 if ordered by relative gains (which also happens to be the set of all players with a USD profit currently)



I'll start by saying, there can never be a 'best' ranking. I think the system, as you have it, works great.
Invariably, different people will look at the same data and come to different conclusions. The metric you have - total value (normalized for variable entry times) is about as pure as you can get.

Disclaimer aside, there has been _something_ nagging at me. I went back and read oda's strikethrough, and was amused to see he was starting down the same path I'm going to propose.

The problem?
All these new guys keep coming up to the top, and in a few days, knocks us veterans down in the list.

...except that is not really a problem at all - it is the perfectly expected outcome, given the nature of trading.  Most traders lose money.  The good ones don't _typically_ go posting all their trades publicly, except when posturing.

Naturally, we are all trying to make a profit in the game. But in the long run, on the average, most traders will lose.
It naturally follows that new players will tend to be in the upper rankings, simply because they have not yet played.

One (additional, non-primary) metric that could be valuable is the average rate of change of the size of our holdings per month.

An example.
30 players start on day 1.
20 more players start on day 32.
At the end of two months, we now have 50 players, 30 have played 2 months, 20 have played 1 month.  That makes 80 months of game time.  Let us say cumulatively that 30 players make 5%, and the other 20 players lose 10%.  All told, the average rate of loss per month is -1% (+150%, -200%, net -50, divided by 50 players.)

This value would be calculated, because each individual player only needs three facts, all of which we already have: Their start date, their start value, and their current value.
This allows us to output a derived value for individual rate of change per month.
The raw data can be summed for the playerbase-as-a-whole rate of change.

And of course, just to make it hurt, we could include a few other metrics to compare against, such as:
-The Ultimate HODLER - A rate of change of 0% never doing anything.
-The Blind Squirrel - A random coin-flip decides each day whether to reverse positions or hold.
-Your own trading account's rate of change over time.

sr. member
Activity: 323
Merit: 250
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
SELL @ 282.94
Looks like it's stopped around here for now
Pages:
Jump to: