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Topic: Trading so slow and flat = boredom (Read 3466 times)

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
June 30, 2011, 08:22:23 PM
#29
@OP.

Still boring?

Nope, that was fun.   Grin
donator
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
June 30, 2011, 07:59:53 PM
#28
This is what a psychologist friend of mine predicted: if prices go stable, speculators will miss their dopamine releases and be even more upset than when price is plunging, which is at least exciting.  Random, unpredictable, positive reinforcement is the best way to train behavior, and that has been the story of bitcoin for the past year or so.

The market has more to do with classical conditioning rather than with operant conditioning.
It is possible that every time we see a crash graph we laugh because the "goxed" meme pops up in our brain, or we might feel anguish because it reminds us about losing money.

The dopamine rush on the other hand, yes, she is right and I rely on it when I invest.
This is very similar to what compulsive gamblers do.
But it is improper to call it "random" reinforcements (that would have NO effect at all), but variable-ratio schedules.
This not only happens to humans, it happens with animals as well. In gamblers, the euphoria and the excitement is their "reward" (dopamin & endorphines). If winning at the casino were trivial, the gamblers would get really bored because there would be no excitement.
Btw, endorphines literally means "internal morphine", no wonder why it is so desirable and in some cases even addictive.

I take behavioral cues for investing, since I know how (crowd) psychology works I take that as an advantage when the prices are way under its value or from its perceived value.
That's why neoclassical economics can't explain the irrational behavior of a gambler, because by definition economics is about "rational choices".

It is here where behavioral economics have its relevance when analyzing an inefficient market.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
June 30, 2011, 07:42:16 PM
#27
@OP.

Still boring?
full member
Activity: 237
Merit: 100
June 30, 2011, 06:30:44 PM
#26
This is what a psychologist friend of mine predicted: if prices go stable, speculators will miss their dopamine releases and be even more upset than when price is plunging, which is at least exciting.  Random, unpredictable, positive reinforcement is the best way to train behavior, and that has been the story of bitcoin for the past year or so.

Ask your psychologist friend what conditioning is occurring that produces dopaminergic activity for market instability as opposed to profit.

She says to ask casino operators.  You're guaranteed a negative expected utility, but you play anyway, because the swings in your fortune are exciting.  Treasury bills are nearly guaranteed profit but boring as hell.

The brain's salience and reward circuits are dynamic, not static, and demand ever-changing stimuli.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
June 30, 2011, 06:23:42 PM
#25
The beauty of free market systems is that every player sees it differently.  The more volatility, the more speculators.  The more speculators (long & short side), the more stability.  The more stability, the more investment and trading.  Some outside event rocks the boat, the more volatility and the cycle continues...
The key word here is 'more'. More is better.
member
Activity: 126
Merit: 10
June 29, 2011, 07:57:13 AM
#24
The beauty of free market systems is that every player sees it differently.  The more volatility, the more speculators.  The more speculators (long & short side), the more stability.  The more stability, the more investment and trading.  Some outside event rocks the boat, the more volatility and the cycle continues...
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol
June 29, 2011, 07:24:49 AM
#23
I agree with you 99%.  The wild swings in trading prevent merchants from adopting BTC as a useful currency; there's no easy way to price a good or service.  The 1% disagreement I have regards the impact of speculators.  Stability will happen only when there are more speculators; the market needs to be saturated.  As more speculators enter, the more narrow the margins become.  Stability follows.

+1 The more speculators the more stable bitcoin will be. Also, the Bitcoin community is learning and becoming better at trading.

Quote
Embrace greed.  It is your friend.

Greed is not your friend, neither your enemy. Greed just is.
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
June 29, 2011, 07:19:49 AM
#22
Seriously, if it's just going to hang out at 17.0 all day, I can find better things to speculate with.  Roll Eyes

I really hope that's what a lot of the people speculating with Bitcoins think. I'm sorry this is spoiling the fun for you - but people speculating like crazy with Bitcoins is spoiling the fun for the people actually using Bitcoins and that's the people who actually give Bitcoin true value. Driving them away is one of the things you can do to assure that Bitcoin will eventually die.

So less people speculating with Bitcoins won't hurt the Bitcoin economy. Quite the contrary.

It'll become fun for you again when the dollar dies and everyone tries to escape to Bitcoin. Let's hope this happens when Bitcoin is already more or less well established. The wise thin

I agree with you 99%.  The wild swings in trading prevent merchants from adopting BTC as a useful currency; there's no easy way to price a good or service.  The 1% disagreement I have regards the impact of speculators.  Stability will happen only when there are more speculators; the market needs to be saturated.  As more speculators enter, the more narrow the margins become.  Stability follows. 

Embrace greed.  It is your friend.

hero member
Activity: 721
Merit: 503
June 29, 2011, 04:38:39 AM
#21
This is what a psychologist friend of mine predicted: if prices go stable, speculators will miss their dopamine releases and be even more upset than when price is plunging, which is at least exciting.  Random, unpredictable, positive reinforcement is the best way to train behavior, and that has been the story of bitcoin for the past year or so.

Ask your psychologist friend what conditioning is occurring that produces dopaminergic activity for market instability as opposed to profit.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
June 29, 2011, 03:57:06 AM
#20
Well looks like the price has stabilized. Now we can all start buying/selling goods and realistically make money at it.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
June 29, 2011, 03:47:30 AM
#19
Seriously, if it's just going to hang out at 17.0 all day, I can find better things to speculate with.  Roll Eyes

I really hope that's what a lot of the people speculating with Bitcoins think. I'm sorry this is spoiling the fun for you - but people speculating like crazy with Bitcoins is spoiling the fun for the people actually using Bitcoins and that's the people who actually give Bitcoin true value. Driving them away is one of the things you can do to assure that Bitcoin will eventually die.

So less people speculating with Bitcoins won't hurt the Bitcoin economy. Quite the contrary.

It'll become fun for you again when the dollar dies and everyone tries to escape to Bitcoin. Let's hope this happens when Bitcoin is already more or less well established. The wise thin
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
June 29, 2011, 03:08:37 AM
#18
all it takes is for one G20 country to declare their economy shall be run in bitcoins to send the price to da moon!!!
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
June 29, 2011, 03:02:52 AM
#17
Seriously, if it's just going to hang out at 17.0 all day, I can find better things to speculate with.  Roll Eyes

Unless someone hacks an exchange and sends the price to zero or someone pledges to invest his life savings in bitcoins sending the price to the moon soon, there's a danger the excitement might wear off and people will just start using it as money. omg.
sr. member
Activity: 373
Merit: 250
June 28, 2011, 11:03:19 PM
#16
Eh, the "single entity" thing has already been explored by a few other threads recently, similar to the conditions at the $20 mark before MtGox was hacked.  I was simply trying to add some small bit of humor, 'tis all.

Though I would advise a bit of patience overall.  Such rapid swings, while "interesting" for speculators, are mostly detrimental to the general health of the Bitcoin economy.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
June 28, 2011, 10:51:10 PM
#15
OP is trolling, a single entity is keeping prices stable at $17/BTC, and the market is as unstable as ever minus said single entity.

#trufax

Not trolling.  Genuinely bored with the market today (and to a lesser extent, yesterday)

If your "single entity" theory is true, I wish he'd stop.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
June 28, 2011, 10:42:45 PM
#14
OP is trolling, a single entity is keeping prices stable at $17/BTC, and the market is as unstable as ever minus said single entity.

#trufax

is CIA floating our boat?
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
June 28, 2011, 10:41:09 PM
#13
might see a bunch of buying tomorrow after 5pm. i'm not sure how long it takes for everyone else's bank to get money into dwolla, but when i talked to Dwolla on the phone today he said my Transfer initiated on Saturday wont be available until tomorrow (wednesday) at around 5pm PST. i'm sure Many buyers trying to take advantage of these low prices are just waiting for the funds to clear before they can buy.  And like i mentioned in another post, i'm sure a person working at Dwolla would be at a good friend to have if they could let you know when large amounts of money were being transferred to the hill or the gox.
sr. member
Activity: 373
Merit: 250
June 28, 2011, 10:37:24 PM
#12
OP is trolling, a single entity is keeping prices stable at $17/BTC, and the market is as unstable as ever minus said single entity.

#trufax
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
June 28, 2011, 10:11:56 PM
#11
I like it staying low. I take part of my paycheck and buy a little bitcoin as I can after child support and bills. After viral smartphone apps and Point-of sales products are released, bitcoins will boom in price.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
June 28, 2011, 09:22:12 PM
#10
This is what a psychologist friend of mine predicted: if prices go stable, speculators will miss their dopamine releases and be even more upset than when price is plunging, which is at least exciting.  Random, unpredictable, positive reinforcement is the best way to train behavior, and that has been the story of bitcoin for the past year or so.
I'd say your friend has me completely figured out.
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