Thanks for your answer but this doesn't give me any information on the arguments FOR or AGAINST transaction fee going up in the future...
Can anyone give some argument for or against transaction fees going up or down in next years, decades...?
Assumption 1:
There will either continue to be limited space for transactions in the blocks, or miners will have an economic incentive for miners to limit the number of transactions in their blocks.
Assumption 2:
Either bitcoin users will understand that the fee they voluntarily provide is an incentive for the miner to include the transaction in a block, or bitcoin wallet software will be designed to build transactions that will eventually get confirmed.
Argument:
- As long as the value of using bitcoin exceeds the cost of using bitcoin, the number of bitcoin transactions will continue to grow over time.
- Eventually, due to that growth and assumption 1, there will be more transactions created between blocks than will fit into the blocks.
- Due to assumption 2, users that want faster confirmation will pay a higher fee. Those that pay too small of a fee will never get confirmed.
- Eventually, these fees will be high enough that the cost of using bitcoin exceeds the value of using bitcoin.
- As long as the cost of using bitcoin exceeds the value of using bitcoin, the number of bitcoin transactions will continue to shrink over time
- Eventually, there will be less transactions created between blocks than will fit into the blocks.
- Users will discover that they can save money by paying a smaller transaction fee, and since there is room in the blocks their transactions will still be confirmed.
- Eventually, these fees will be low enough that the value of using bitcoin exceeds the cost of using bitcoin
- The above cycle will repeat itself until an equilibrium between fees, block space, and quantity of transactions is reached.
If bitcoin becomes more popular, fees will go up as more transactions are competing for the same amount of block space.
If bitcoin becomes less popular, fees will go down as there will be space in the blocks for cheaper transactions.
If the block space limit increases, fees will go down as there will be space in the blocks for cheaper transactions.
If the block space limit decreases, fees will go up as the same number of transactions are competing for less block space.
Since it is impossible to know if the block size limit will change at all in the future, and it is impossible to know if bitcoin will be more popular or less popular in the future, it is impossible to know if transaction fees will actually go up.
However, if bitcoin isn't popular enough, or fees aren't high enough, then there will be no incentive for miners to participate and bitcoin will fail to maintain adequate security.
I (and many others) believe that bitcoin will grow in popularity over the next few decades, and therefore believe that fees will remain high enough to keep enough miners participating.
Some people may believe that bitcoin will never be popular enough, and therefore they may believe that bitcoin will eventually collapse.
You are welcome to make your own guess.
The only way to know for sure is to continue to run this experiment that we call "bitcoin" and see what happens.