I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.
First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.
However, I don't think this will work. I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month. If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure. I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.
It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.
They closing Bitcoin positions monthly has nothing to do with withdrawing funds. One can close a CFD position at any time, and these are instruments designed for short term trading. I have withdrawn USD, my profits, on a weekly basis many times from AvaTrade with no problem after MTGox was not withdrawing USD or CAD. Furthermore they have CFDs for major and some minor currency pairs, stocks, indices precious metals etc. BTC and now LTC is a small part of their business. It is basically a bet on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD rate and there plenty of ways to hedge this on their part with little or no counterparty exposure to MTGox. Will this last? No, mainly because it is only a matter of time before they switch to BitStamp, in fact I suggested they do this myself to them.
Edit: I am not suggesting anyone deposit fiat or BTC into MTGox. I voted this as "Incomprehensibly idiotic"
