Trump being new POTUS - how it will affect Bitcoin in the long run?

criptix

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Quote from: alyssa85 on November 12, 2016, 10:56:53 AM

Quote from: TERA on November 09, 2016, 07:53:36 PM

Bitcoin is mostly about the United states

No it is not. The big move in bitcoin that made it mainstream came in 2013 when Cyprus confiscated the savings of it's people to bail out the banks.

Basically countries like the USA and UK, which have had a very long period of rule of law, are not the drivers of bitcoin because the dollar and pound are trusted by their citizens. The same goes for Sweden and Denmark, they are stable countries who control their own currency.

Bitcoin is of benefit to those countries who DON'T have the rule of law and are thus very dangerous. So Argentina, Venezuela, various places in Africa and Asia, and the eurozone countries.

The biggie for Bitcoin is March 2017, when France has it's elections. One of the candidates wants to leave the euro. Changing currency brings instability and I expect funds will rush into bitcoin, gold, the dollar, pound and swiss franc just before the election.

You overestimate bitcoin by too much.
Be realistic. Bitcoins marketcap is barely 19 billions.
And 2013 was all mt. Gox.

If there will be a black swan event in the coming years we will be lucky if just 1% of money enters bitcoin (which will give us easily a x10).

uki

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Quote from: deisik on February 23, 2017, 09:55:44 AM

O'really? Your other post tells a very different story (emphasis added):

Quote from: uki on November 09, 2016, 04:29:02 AM

Sure, China leads the game no doubt about it. But having unsecure situation at the markets and a weaker dollar, smart money may look for another places to be. Gold is a secure bet at the moment, but some money may flow into Bitcoin, too

You needn't try to shift your original point now (better check your other posts as well next time). It was perfectly clear right from the start that you talked about a weak(er) dollar overall (which is nowhere to be seen so far), i.e. in respect to gold and other currencies (which is what USDX basically shows). In any case, today's Bitcoin prices have nothing to do with Trump and his policies, even if it may in fact be what smart money is doing (as you claim). Personally, I doubt that, essentially because Bitcoin has been very resilient after what the Chinese authorities did in January

I guess, being a non-English speaker, that may be a language issue. I thought my original post and the post you cite were clear that I refer to weaker dollar (in relation to Bitcoin), as a short-term effect of Trump election. For me however, the main point for opening this thread, was to hear the opinions about the long-term influence of Trump's presidency. The smart money entering now the Bitcoin scene may be one of the things I was asking about.

deisik

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Quote from: uki on February 23, 2017, 09:29:23 AM

Quote from: deisik on February 23, 2017, 08:46:13 AM

Quote from: uki on February 23, 2017, 08:39:15 AM

I bump my thread, as we are now three months wiser. It looks like my short term prediction about an immediate influence of the presidential election in the US on Bitcoin was correct. Now, the question is, how long will this Trump-fear induced Bitcoin rally will last?

I guess the reality is a far cry from what you professed

Quote

Short-term effect is rather evident - weaker dollar, stronger Bitcoin

The US dollar is nowhere about being weak or weaker

The USDX keeps pretty solid above the 100 mark. The Bitcoin price surge we are seeing right now obviously has nothing to do with Trump. On the contrary, folks from the US are in fact afraid that Trump might be strongly opposing Bitcoin in his "fight with terrorism". Though I don't think that he ever touches Bitcoin in his policy (e.g. by issuing an executive order outright prohibiting it), we still can't discard such a possibility completely and yet less fears associated with it. That should contribute to prices going down instead of rising

USD is weaker in relation to Bitcoin - that was my statement, and I see it happening. I guess my initial post was clear in that regard. USDX is the relation of US$ to other fiat currencies.
Now regarding the second statement of yours. The influx of new money into Bitcoin we observe now and thus the price staying well above $1k level, may be exactly the effect of what smart money is doing: tell one thing openly and do the other behind the scenes. Once everybody in the mainstream media will start talking about how attractive Bitcoin is, it will be time to sell, not to buy it

O'really? Your other post tells a very different story (emphasis added):

Quote from: uki on November 09, 2016, 04:29:02 AM

Sure, China leads the game no doubt about it. But having unsecure situation at the markets and a weaker dollar, smart money may look for another places to be. Gold is a secure bet at the moment, but some money may flow into Bitcoin, too

You needn't try to shift your original point now (better check your other posts as well next time). It was perfectly clear right from the start that you talked about a weak(er) dollar overall (which is nowhere to be seen so far), i.e. in respect to gold and other currencies (which is what USDX basically shows). In any case, today's Bitcoin prices have nothing to do with Trump and his policies, even if it may in fact be what smart money is doing (as you claim). Personally, I doubt that, essentially because Bitcoin has been very resilient after what the Chinese authorities did in January

uki

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Quote from: deisik on February 23, 2017, 08:46:13 AM

Quote from: uki on February 23, 2017, 08:39:15 AM

I bump my thread, as we are now three months wiser. It looks like my short term prediction about an immediate influence of the presidential election in the US on Bitcoin was correct. Now, the question is, how long will this Trump-fear induced Bitcoin rally will last?

I guess the reality is a far cry from what you professed

Quote

Short-term effect is rather evident - weaker dollar, stronger Bitcoin

The US dollar is nowhere about being weak or weaker

The USDX keeps pretty solid above the 100 mark. The Bitcoin price surge we are seeing right now obviously has nothing to do with Trump. On the contrary, folks from the US are in fact afraid that Trump might be strongly opposing Bitcoin in his "fight with terrorism". Though I don't think that he ever touches Bitcoin in his policy (e.g. by issuing an executive order outright prohibiting it), we still can't discard such a possibility completely and yet less fears associated with it. That should contribute to prices going down instead of rising

USD is weaker in relation to Bitcoin - that was my statement, and I see it happening. I guess my initial post was clear in that regard. USDX is the relation of US$ to other fiat currencies.
Now regarding the second statement of yours. The influx of new money into Bitcoin we observe now and thus the price staying well above $1k level, may be exactly the effect of what smart money is doing: tell one thing openly and do the other behind the scenes. Once everybody in the mainstream media will start talking about how attractive Bitcoin is, it will be time to sell, not to buy it.

deisik

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Quote from: uki on February 23, 2017, 08:39:15 AM

I bump my thread, as we are now three months wiser. It looks like my short term prediction about an immediate influence of the presidential election in the US on Bitcoin was correct. Now, the question is, how long will this Trump-fear induced Bitcoin rally will last?

I guess the reality is a far cry from what you professed

Quote

Short-term effect is rather evident - weaker dollar, stronger Bitcoin

The US dollar is nowhere near about being weak or weaker

The USDX keeps pretty solid above the 100 mark. The Bitcoin price surge we are seeing right now obviously has nothing to do with Trump. On the contrary, folks from the US are in fact afraid that Trump might be strongly opposing Bitcoin in his "fight with terrorism". Though I don't think that he ever touches Bitcoin in his policy (e.g. by issuing an executive order outright prohibiting it), we still can't discard such a possibility completely and yet less fears associated with it. That should contribute to prices going down instead of rising

uki

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I bump my thread, as we are now three months wiser. It looks like my short term prediction about an immediate influence of the presidential election in the US on Bitcoin was correct. Now, the question is, how long will this Trump-fear induced Bitcoin rally will last?

TERA

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Donald Trump has stolen Bitcoin's thunder as the solution to centrism, corruption, a threatened dollar, impending wars, collapsing markets, burdensome regulations, and high taxes. He is going to make fiat great again.

deisik

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Quote from: kwukduck on November 09, 2016, 10:37:16 AM

Trump policy will not be helping Bitcoin or any other crypto for that matter.
He will crack down on bitcoin like it's a big crime syndicate. Bitcoin goes directly against everything Trump stands for both phylosophically and economically/technically.
Regulations will be extremely strict or it will be outlawed completely.

If yiu think otherwise you have no udea about who Trump is and what Bitcoin is.

And who is Mr. Trump, do you know him personally or what?

I remember him threatening on multiple occurrences during all his presidential campaign to completely eradicate Obamacare, repeal and replace it, get rid of it, calling it a "big, fat, horrible lie" and a "total catastrophe". But then he meets with Obama himself as the president-elect, and now he says that he may "well keep at least two of the main provisions of the healthcare bill". I think you are mistakenly believing that Trump is stubborn like a donkey while in fact he is by far more accommodating than his competitor Clinton. Anyway, Bitcoin is too negligible and marginal to be Trump's primary concern for the time being

TERA

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Anything USEFUL about bitcoin mostly comes from the United States like developers, entrepreneurs, users, and business infrastructure. The only things coming from China are daytraders, crazy fake exchanges, and massive asic mining farms that we don't need. Things like Brexit and Cyprus effecting the price is a myth from traders. What's going on in the US is much more important in the long run and the US is the only world superpower that supports bitcoin

Barbut

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Who from here can predict Trump plans in next few years. With his actions he can make some chaos in this world. As corporation man he is deeply involved in almost everything so we need to be prepared for everything.
What ever he do I don't think he can effect bitcoin too much, bitcoin have its on way no matter who is president and what country is it.

alyssa85

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Quote from: TERA on November 09, 2016, 07:53:36 PM

Bitcoin is mostly about the United states

No it is not. The big move in bitcoin that made it mainstream came in 2013 when Cyprus confiscated the savings of it's people to bail out the banks.

Basically countries like the USA and UK, which have had a very long period of rule of law, are not the drivers of bitcoin because the dollar and pound are trusted by their citizens. The same goes for Sweden and Denmark, they are stable countries who control their own currency.

Bitcoin is of benefit to those countries who DON'T have the rule of law and are thus very dangerous. So Argentina, Venezuela, various places in Africa and Asia, and the eurozone countries.

The biggie for Bitcoin is March 2017, when France has it's elections. One of the candidates wants to leave the euro. Changing currency brings instability and I expect funds will rush into bitcoin, gold, the dollar, pound and swiss franc just before the election.

amacar2

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Quote from: TERA on November 09, 2016, 07:53:36 PM

Bitcoin is mostly about the United states

I really doubt this, the effect of recent fud about china going to limit bitcoin trading in china made huge dump rather than small and unstable pump after Trump got elected. So i think bitcoin is mostly about China right now. Grin

BingoDog

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Why does everyone think that Bitcoin depends on Trump or something that he will or will not say or do? As far as I know Bitcoin is stil free from governments so american president or any other governmental institution should not have anything to do with it.
Trump can affect dollar and stock markets, which already has.

Torque

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http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-other-treasury-secretary-has-deep-ties-to-wall-street-money-2016-11

U2

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Quote from: TERA on November 09, 2016, 07:53:36 PM

Bitcoin is mostly about the United states

Rebuttal: Nope.

Honestly nothing but good can come out of trump being the president (in terms of bitcoin pricing lol). I would expect more and more increases in the future. We'll see how the wall comes along I guess and judge from that Wink

richardsNY

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Quote from: afbitcoins on November 10, 2016, 10:40:41 AM

We saw another example of bitcoin behaving like gold, both spiked up on the news only to both fall back to previous levels. Bitcoin still a small niche is a safe haven and a way to avoid capital controls. Both of which will boost bitcoin and gold in coming years

Gold is well known for being a safe haven in difficult economical times, but I am sure that Bitcoin will get its shine in this aspect as well in the coming years. The only thing I am wondering, is how we can get the traditional people with their old fashion way of thinking to take a position into Bitcoin.

Quote from: uki on November 10, 2016, 04:10:51 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Trump policies seem to be inflationnary. And bitcoin thrives in this kind of environment.

That is what I think, too. My impresion is that in the long run Bitcoin price will profit from this voting. That is because of the weakening dollar.

With or without Trump, the economical situation where fiat is less and less wanted, will make people look for a perfect hedge against it where Bitcoin will play an important role. People have 2 options - Bitcoin or Gold. Right now Gold is the preferred option, but Bitcoin is climbing up as well.

uki

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Trump policies seem to be inflationnary. And bitcoin thrives in this kind of environment.

That is what I think, too. My impresion is that in the long run Bitcoin price will profit from this voting. That is because of the weakening dollar.

Ayers

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Quote from: criptix on November 09, 2016, 08:11:39 PM

Quote from: Shiroslullaby on November 09, 2016, 07:12:59 PM

Short term- small bump.
Long term? Who knows.

Depends on the people he puts in his cabinet (supposedly a lot of CEOs, banking execs etc)
and the policies he puts in place.
Trump may be good for the US economy long term, if he can reduce debt and negotiate good trade deals.
A lot depends on the tax policies and the infrastructure projects he has proposed. (IMO)

He wants to reduce debt by lowering taxes and stopping international trade.

Genius Shocked

Im still not sure how he is planning to keep his ridic promises.

yeah because international trade cannot be stopped, and i'm not sure what kinda of trade he was talking about, he mean goods trading or virtual trading done on the web?

paramind22

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Quote from: kwukduck on November 09, 2016, 10:37:16 AM

Trump policy will not be helping Bitcoin or any other crypto for that matter.
He will crack down on bitcoin like it's a big crime syndicate. Bitcoin goes directly against everything Trump stands for both phylosophically and economically/technically.
Regulations will be extremely strict or it will be outlawed completely.

If yiu think otherwise you have no udea about who Trump is and what Bitcoin is.

No POTS works alone, and history has shown that they don't swing all things their way. On what are you basing your opinion of Trump's stand on BTC? Trump isn't such an outsider, he hosted SNL a few times, and The Apprentice. He is being demonized by many but not sure for what reasons, as he clearly has a sense of humor and isn't always very serious about what he says.

BTC jumped 3% on news of his victory. Trump is an outsider, and BTC is a 12 billion dollar "outsider." I would have some faith Trump cares for the average American and BTC represents a lot of average Americans.

Teemotje

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Pretty hard to say what is gonna happen with the bitcoin but most likely there will not change a lot of if I have to be honest.
I just do not think that it can effect it due to the fact that the bitcoin is standing on its own right ?

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