Topic: Trump isn’t the only ‘story’ driving Bitcoin’s price higher, says exec - page 4. (Read 810 times)

The 4-year cycle is a popular theory, but evidence for it its thin at this moment. We had only two complete 4-year cycles "from a major ATH to the next major ATH": 2013-2017 and 2017-2021.We don't know how long the current cycle will be, so we can't count 2021-25.

If we take lows, we have three "cycles" with durations between 3 and 4 years already, but they don't look that regular: we had major lows in late 2011, early 2015, late 2018 and late 2022. 2011-2015 is a little more than three years, 2015-18 three and a half year (2011 and 18 lows are almost exactly 7 years away), and only 2018-22 is the "traditional" 4 year distance.

In addition we had the interesting phenomenon of the 2019 mid-year rally, getting surprisingly close to the ATH only half a year after the 2018 low, this rally was completely detached from halvings. It's a legit assumption imo that we would have had an ATH much earlier (probably in early to mid 2020, before the halving) if the Covid panic and crash that set in in February/March didn't happen, and subsequently FOMO could have set in earlier.

This doesn't mean that the 4 year cycle is totally unplausible (although I dispute the post-halving rally theory as written in my last post) but we need more time (at least ~5 years more) to confirm it imo. For me, the relative regularity could also have to do with attention cycles and are thus probably more driven by demand fluctuations than by the supply schedule.

People are anticipating flexibility of regulation post trump winning, there's rumour about bitcoin strategic reserve as well, I think it's like chain effect, since trump is winning, it confirmed the bullish sentiment that people are having, therefore the big buying pressure is coming to BTC market and it literally escaped from gold, equity also going up, seems like gold already overbought.

after all, the market is all about the general sentiment, if people are optimistic, BTC will always go bullish.

moreover, current bullrun is just starting, we might see even greater, altcoin season isn't here yet either.

The thing is bitcoin is strongly follows its historical trend more than any other fundamental news or hype surrounding it. Yes the Trump win actually added its  hype and might have been the part of the rapid pump but seriously bitcoin was definitely going to increase in this quarter of the year. Would there be a different move had Kamala win, I would have said yes a little correction might have taken place but the dip wouldn’t be as heavy as the this current pump.

People think like had Kamala won it would have been bad for bitcoin but I say no it wouldn’t have been because bitcoin would’ve still follow its pattern after a few corrections. Take a look at 2020 post halving bitcoin did pumped in the last quater even though it was Biden who is not crypto friendly that won

I have also thought about this as well though, if it was Kamala Harris who won the election, well by now we could had seen bitcoin at the low causing serious panicked in the market. I believe lot of people could had sold out heavily because US would now be an anti-bitcoin zone but this it was on the reverse as Trump did emerged as the winner, though it was his winning which actually propelled the market driving so crazy even though there are other factors.

The stories don't matter at all.  Trump, war, whatever...  Bitcoin is going higher because that's what it has been designed to do.  It goes on a 4-year cycle and no matter how much analysts want to try and prove themselves by calling all the little ups and downs of the market and explaining them, the only thing that matters at the end of the day is the 4-year cycle.  People shouldn't get caught up in trading (of course there are certain events like mtgox that were obvious to trade) and instead just stack sats.  There will always be events happening, but the 4-year cycle cannot be denied and rules all else.

Both and some other factors too like the Spot ETFs that have been traded nowadays and even during the approval, there were good news already.

We will never know.

The "post halving shock"'s incidence is overrated in my opinion.

Miners mine 450 BTC per day. Yesterday over a million BTC were traded on exchanges. It was an extraordinary volume, but normally the volume is well in the six digits (even on weekends mostly over 200k/day).

At the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's yearly supply inflation went down from 1,6% to 0,8%.

The incidence of newly mined coins in the market is negligible now. IMO the last halving where miners' subsidy reduction did really make a difference was 2016, when supply inflation went down from 8% to 4%. 8% per year is still a high figure compared to the "money printing" that fiat currencies experience, so before 2016 there was a fairly high available supply by miners which had to be "countered" by new investments. With a 4% inflation Bitcoin entered "fiat territory" in 2016, to then lower gradually.

This means that since 2016, for me Bitcoin is already quite scarce (although scarcity has to take demand into account, so it's scarce if we assume there's static demand) and the subsequent subdidy reductions by halvings do not really make a difference.

Apart from Trump, however, there may be some other factors in play, like the Microsoft decision to ask their shareholders about Bitcoin purchases. But I think the US election is indeed the main driver of the price, at least in the last ten days.

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?