Topic: Trump's iran War Pump in BTC Price. Will it last? Poll. - page 2. (Read 493 times)
I choose "No. Rises only in a Crisis!" because the scenario is currently changes and trump will not declare war against iran, then I think people in iran will withdraw what they put in bitcoin because the crises will not going to happen. maybe in many days it will start to dump again and going back to the previous price.
The things have started to settle a bit after the polite and much awaited trump statement talking about the peace and this viable a positive signal in the world and today due to which many share market alto gave a thumbs up and moved up and btc which rose in last couple of days have started to balance out now .
I think the rise in bitcoin yesterday has nothing to do with the Iran vs America conflict. I think this is just a coincidence when the value of bitcoin has increased iran and America conflicted. after a few days yesterday bitcoin has increased, today bitcoin has decreased again. from this I conclude that the increase that occurred yesterday was the increase that usually occurs in bitcoin.
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However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.
Regarding the price movement of Bitcoin, I have also no idea and I see no correlation between what is happening right now between the 2 countries and the price of it. I'm always leaning on the technical side than the fundamental side and there are some indicators that are indicating that we are now in a bull run. I just said it is a bull run but still I'm ready if the worse situation can happen to Bitcoin again since many said it already and it is also my vote "Bitcoin is Mysterious".
And Now, The trend is already reversing right after Trump announce a peaceful way to solve this conflict. Some whale might try to manipulate the Bitcoin price
using the tension in the middle east. I believe he want's to use the hype on Oil to BTC price. I already analyze both graphs and It's showing that the price movement
of them is relevant to each other. I'm not really sure about this theory.
Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply
a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?
take the poll (I've not a clue!)
Brad
There is correlation in the last week for Stocks, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin however what if the correlation is only temporarily because BTC had a double bottom at $6400 and was eventually suppose to bounce either way.
Exactly. Everyone always makes these rash assumptions about news causing every price move. Usually it's coincidental, or at most catalyzes moves that were already going to happen. The truth is, the technicals were already indicating a rally to the mid-$8,000s. I was talking about that days before any of this Iran news dropped.
If the fury of him fades and the bitcoin price stays then that is a negative for those analysts who is connecting the crypto market to the world news. 
That means they are a failure and we should stop listening to them.
But if they are right and bitcoin falls back then, we should still not listen to them. It will become a bad habit and we might risk our money just because they told us this and that.
Also, they will be so proud of themselves then create unreal news next time.
Events in the crypto world should be the thing being listened too to make the price move.
The halving, the FOMO's, the scared cats. That is all the reason into it.
That means they are a failure and we should stop listening to them.
But if they are right and bitcoin falls back then, we should still not listen to them. It will become a bad habit and we might risk our money just because they told us this and that.
Also, they will be so proud of themselves then create unreal news next time.
Events in the crypto world should be the thing being listened too to make the price move.
The halving, the FOMO's, the scared cats. That is all the reason into it.
Or is this simply a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?
I think that's the most likely reason, but who's to say? There's no reason why bitcoin's price should go up right now because of the upcoming halving, and it's never really clear how bitcoin reacts to world events like wars and such. Bitcoin was above $8k just a few months ago, so it's not like this is a huge deal right now. Yes, it's up relative to where it's been since November but it's still a hell of a long ways away from its ATH. I also happen to think that this Trump-Iran thing might have had an effect, but I'm not completely sure about it and it also looks like the situation might be de-escalating somewhat.
I think it's going to be an interesting year for bitcoin, I'll say that.
I voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious".
To be honest, we would think that BTC could suddenly rises like this? As of the moment I'm sure majority is still at lost as what really happen. But I'm sure there could be some explanation here, specially when everything settles down.
To be honest, we would think that BTC could suddenly rises like this? As of the moment I'm sure majority is still at lost as what really happen. But I'm sure there could be some explanation here, specially when everything settles down.
I also voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious" because I don't think the conflict between Iran and the USA will not have that much effect on bitcoin's price because bitcoin is way mysterious and the price changes with no common indicator. Bitcoin price can be affected by many things and the crisis between Iran and the USA may have an effect but I don't think it will have a massive effect on the price.
This could be the starting point where investors and hodlers will continue to hodl their BTC purchased just recently, because the tension and problem in Iran and US might fade, it doesn't mean that people would readily sell their cryptocurrency, it is in fact a thoughts for every each of us to make the bitcoin halving a reason to continue holding our bitcoins. But I am pretty sure the BTC pump will continue untill bitcoin halving occurs.
However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.
Regarding the price movement of Bitcoin, I have also no idea and I see no correlation between what is happening right now between the 2 countries and the price of it. I'm always leaning on the technical side than the fundamental side and there are some indicators that are indicating that we are now in a bull run. I just said it is a bull run but still I'm ready if the worse situation can happen to Bitcoin again since many said it already and it is also my vote "Bitcoin is Mysterious".
Since the war is just starting I guess? It's already showing that the price increases but I don't think that this pump will continue when the war between the two country grew bigger. Yes, it acts as a store value but with war, will it even matter for the people affected? Just like in your poll, Bitcoin is a mystery that's why we can never know. It might look like it'll pump but since bitcoin is a mystery, it can result differently. We're not even really sure that the pump is because of the war.
I voted Yes, it's a store of value.
The bitcoin price jumped at the same time the price of gold jumped.
Suppose you are a fairly wealthy person in the Middle East and are worried you might be caught up in a war between Iran and Saudi (like Syria has, using proxies). And that you might have to leave. Do you leave your money in a local currency? Do you buy gold? Or do you buy bitcoin which you can take with you, with your wallet on a USB stick as you cross borders? Some people are trying all options, just in case.
The bitcoin price jumped at the same time the price of gold jumped.
Suppose you are a fairly wealthy person in the Middle East and are worried you might be caught up in a war between Iran and Saudi (like Syria has, using proxies). And that you might have to leave. Do you leave your money in a local currency? Do you buy gold? Or do you buy bitcoin which you can take with you, with your wallet on a USB stick as you cross borders? Some people are trying all options, just in case.
First off, let's not automatically conclude that the pump in price was due to the Iran/US fiasco. With that said, I don't think Trump's "Iran War talk" simply fades. It's not just a "talk" now, as far as I know a war is pretty much confirmed(correct me if I'm wrong). I know friends in the US that are now going to be deployed in Iran, with saying their hopefully not last goodbyes to their respective families.
With that said, let's not hope for the worst just for BTC's price to rise. Don't be that kind of person.
With that said, let's not hope for the worst just for BTC's price to rise. Don't be that kind of person.
This whole situation between USA-Iran-Iraq can have an impact on the world markets, but not as much as the media overdo it for the sake of creating sensationalist headlines. They are pumping war story because this is hot news which makes them a good profit.
The facts on the ground are actually a lot different when it comes to the military option, which means that the US does not have enough human resources in the Middle East to invade Iran, and in the same time Iran can reach almost all USA bases in Middle East with its long-range missiles. For that reason USA is sending six B-52 bombers to US military base Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean island) which is beyond the reach of the Iranian missile system.
I think Iran will not provoke a real open war in which they have no realistic chance, but retaliation for the killed general will come in the form of some minor attacks on US targets or their allies.
Counting dead US troops in an election year would be one of the biggest nonsense Trump has done, and I think this whole situation is just a show of power that says "We are USA, we are the strongest and we can do anything we want"
I choose not to know, BTC is mysterious.
because in my opinion the recent rise in bitcoin prices is not due to geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, maybe this is just a coincidence, but rather is caused by certain factors that are directly related to bitcoin.
because in my opinion the recent rise in bitcoin prices is not due to geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, maybe this is just a coincidence, but rather is caused by certain factors that are directly related to bitcoin.
I've voted "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious.". In my opinion, it's already taking too long for BTC to hit its new ATH. Iran War or not, it would go up these days anyway, but we never actually know the reasons for yet another rising. Of course it's easy to talk about the reasons post factum, but before we are there, I mean, at the new ATH, no one can say when it should happen and why.
Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?
This will definitely be fading days from now though I am hoping to be wrong. I am then hoping that the influence of the conflict can carry Bitcoin into the halving phase -- the time when we can feel the effect of the halving to the price movement of Bitcoin. The USA-Iran conflict influence will not be lasting for weeks as there is a bigger chance that there will not be a wider conflict in between the two countries. I actually find it pity that we need to have a development like this to push Bitcoin a little bit. I am not then wondering why some people think that there is a need for more bad news so we can see more good news in Bitcoin.
there is something wrong about the Pump
usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?
usually Prices goes up after the Halving and Not before right?
wrong and wrong.
this is not a pump and price has always gone up before the halving, dropped right before halving (meaning a week or so to halving), stayed down a while through halving and then rose again in about a month.
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While I do agree with your analysisy (how couldn't I agree with facts?) I think this time is going to be different.
I think now people/investors/hodlers are well more aware of halving mechanism, greatly thanks to PlanB articles (I started a thread about those article a while a go: Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity ). It is true that halvings are not still entirely priced in, this is a model and not certainity, after all, but more awareness of the impact of halving on the price dynamics could lead to an improved price outlook coming into halving, and a limited downside in the aftermath.
Regarding the correlated move in oli/gold and bitcoin, I think we are referring to this graph:
https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1214695361320669185
provided the timeframe is too narrow to state there is a significant correlation, a reason might be a note released by Golman Sachs:
Geopolitical news made investors going to buy safe investments.
Today Goldman Sachs told his client that: "Gold is a better Geopolitical hedge than Oil" and "Gold is the geopolitical hedge of last resort"
Quote
We found that spikes in geopolitical tensions lead to higher gold prices when they are severe enough to cause currency debasement (see “the geopolitical hedge of last resort”). This most often happens during wars or military escalations. Accordingly, we found that gold performed well, even controlling for real rates and dollar weakness, during the beginning of both Gulf wars and during the events of September 11, 2001. Therefore, additional escalation in US-Iranian tensions could further boost gold prices. All in all, we stick with our 3, 6 and 12m forecast of $1,600/toz but see upside risks if geopolitical tensions worsen.
Quote
We find that gold can effectively hedge against geopolitical risk if the geopolitical
event is extreme enough that it leads to some sort of currency debasement, and
especially if the gold price move is much sharper than the move in real rates or
the dollar.
event is extreme enough that it leads to some sort of currency debasement, and
especially if the gold price move is much sharper than the move in real rates or
the dollar.
So Gold is rising more than oil.
Digital Gold is raising more than physical gold.
Actually a few hours later:
Quote
Fresh all time highs for gold in euros.
€45,266 a kilo
€45,266 a kilo
https://twitter.com/JanGold_/status/1214089342626541573?s=20
Also on Bloomberg:
Gold Nears Six-Year High as Mideast Tensions Spur Haven Demand
Quote
Gold neared a six-year high after a U.S. airstrike killed one of Iran’s most powerful generals, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East and driving demand for havens.
Bullion rallied as much as 1.6% to $1,553.52 an ounce in the spot market, reaching the highest since September. Platinum futures briefly topped $1,000 an ounce to touch the highest since early 2018 in New York, while silver and other haven assets rose.
Bullion rallied as much as 1.6% to $1,553.52 an ounce in the spot market, reaching the highest since September. Platinum futures briefly topped $1,000 an ounce to touch the highest since early 2018 in New York, while silver and other haven assets rose.
However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.
BTC chart looks very bearish in the last few weeks and miraculously revive right after Gold and Oil price rally. There is something behind this silly move and
I'm still expecting a huge spike on the price once this bullish movement become exhausted.
investor move there money from stock markets to stable currency , gold , but btc is also unpredictable so I don't think that raise in btc price is coincidence
Not got a clue meself, but hey, since when has that ever stopped anyone from ever having an opinion, right?
Me, I don't see a single correlation here. If anything, US going to war with one of the world's oldest civilisations (and a nuclear power, at that), is got to be bad for global stability, bad for global economy, and as I've constantly said before, this can't be good for Bitcoin.
People keep saying falling economies and falling dollar etc means bigger Bitcoin but when people are hungry, desperate and without jobs, they don't buy bitcoin. They buy food.
US dollar rising, bitcoin rising too, btw. Doesn't make sense if we use those theories so there.
Me, I don't see a single correlation here. If anything, US going to war with one of the world's oldest civilisations (and a nuclear power, at that), is got to be bad for global stability, bad for global economy, and as I've constantly said before, this can't be good for Bitcoin.
People keep saying falling economies and falling dollar etc means bigger Bitcoin but when people are hungry, desperate and without jobs, they don't buy bitcoin. They buy food.
US dollar rising, bitcoin rising too, btw. Doesn't make sense if we use those theories so there.
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