Finally started swapping most of my charts to BTC pairings. Totally makes me rethink my future positions.
Feeling way less inclined to take profits off LTC, for instance. Doesn't look like it's flirted with the 0.02 resistance yet (for what that's worth). Riding the upper BBand (1D) but doesn't really freak me out. It's
way up in USD, but it's only (only?? the greed) up 80% from its August low in BTC terms. USD tells me sell, BTC says let it ride. Don't screw with a good thing.
I could also rebalance a small amount, but it feels backwards putting higher-grade assets into spec assets at this point (most of my spec-class is meh right now--all the "good" coins in my portfolio are what's running hot). Shouldn't balancing ideally be the other way around? I'd prefer to use new fiat or maybe skim off a small BTC position to feed little 1-2% spec stuff. At the same time, I can't force the markets to match my price opinions.
More importantly though, does all of the above seem like sound reasoning in the general, TA sense (i.e. ignore the hodl/bank LTC angle)?
Also interesting that the latest LTC 0.02 (almost ATH) point was when BTC was tanking in July. Interesting hedge.
As always, tremendously appreciate all of your work keeping up with this thread.
Yeah, all that sounds very reasonable to me.
As things stand today, I'm not selling any LTC until it gets into the $150-$200 area. I say as things stand because things could change and cause me to reevaluate. That's tough for me to say in any event since the .02 resistance at today's BTC prices is roughly $100, and both are going to be big psychological barriers. For me, it'll all depend on how BTC is doing. If it starts showing signs of topping, I'll get much more aggressive with my selling everything (converting to USD equivalents). If it continues to cruise higher, as it very well might, then I'll hang tight.
It's very tempting to add a bit to the specs. I'm not doing it, but, as I say, it's very tempting. If you think BTC is going to move higher, it could be a good move since many of these good Alts do move higher towards the end of a BTC move - they're laggards that can double, triple, quadruple in a couple of days, but if we don't get that icing on the cake, you'd better be ready to liquidate. On the other hand, if your higher grade coins are doing well, and not getting way out of line still in portfolio percentage terms, why take the risk? Let your profits run, especially if they're good coins doing well, but, again, be faithful to your rebalancing guidelines. Nevertheless, once you have decided to rebalance, you'll still have the decision to make as to whether it'll be liquidating into a USD equivalent or nibbling on those more speculative assets.
Having used the liquidate word, to be sure, I won't be liquidating LTC. As I've said before, I don't plan on letting it go below 25% of the portfolio simply, as you mentioned, because it also works as a nice hedge . . . until it doesn't.
I will be taking the rest of the portfolio into USD equivalents. Before or after playing one or two spec positions? We'll have to see what develops before I can answer that, but I don't think it's very likely I will: I am already starting to get very protective.
https://i.imgur.com/l3r1cI1.jpg