BTC will do a lot better than APPL, and comapred to, BTC are in 1999 !
Topic: Two simple charts. (Read 2154 times)
if the 2000 and the 2005 split are taken in account, the value get from 50 to much much more than 450 now !
BTC will do a lot better than APPL, and comapred to, BTC are in 1999 !
BTC will do a lot better than APPL, and comapred to, BTC are in 1999 !
I thought this was more appropriate. 
40 years, into 24 months, you cannot squeeze
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1589337
2.5 million years in 2000 years. Technological progress has allowed for squeezing!
There is no new paradigm.
That is classic old-paradigm thinking. 
I think most people's greatest fear is the governments/established organizations' retaliation.
This was my main fear for a while until I read a post (I forget which one exactly) suggesting the following:
Assume that Bitcoin has the massive potential that we'd all hope for. Which government will want to be the first to try and implement some sort of ban? It could prove to be massively detrimental to that particular country in the event that Bitcoin survives (which it probably would). Whichever country implemented a ban would have deterred adoption amongst its own citizens and therefore missed out on the potentially massive growth of the Bitcoin economy as a whole.
I'd be interested to hear other peoples thoughts.
Two charts, one thread
Discuss
Discuss
Does the "hype cycle" chart still apply if the technology really is a "new paradigm"? I hope the fact that that was my first question is not a bad sign...
This is the response I was looking for. My point here is that markets are participated in by people. You are investing fiat money in an asset. Mass market psychology applies here. There is no new paradigm. People who say "new paradigm" will be caught in the mania phase with their pants down and their fingers wrapped firmly around their bitcoins -- unwilling to sell at any price.
Take a look at the AAPL chart posted in this thread. It matches the hype cycle chart even better than bitcoin does. That person's wish "why can't we be more like AAPL" is a dangerous wish indeed
Well, great, everything will fail, only fiats are so precious and invulnerable, fantastic.
Oh god, he has pictures! Pictures with lines! Tell us prophet, from doth where do thee gather such infinite knowledge?!
This made me lol.
Although the recent growth of the past couple weeks has been erie, but it's hard to pinpoint what's behind it because, as far as I'm aware, there is no precedent for such a unique market. Does the "hype cycle" chart still apply if the technology really is a "new paradigm"? I hope the fact that that was my first question is not a bad sign...
This is the response I was looking for. My point here is that markets are participated in by people. You are investing fiat money in an asset. Mass market psychology applies here. There is no new paradigm. People who say "new paradigm" will be caught in the mania phase with their pants down and their fingers wrapped firmly around their bitcoins -- unwilling to sell at any price.
Take a look at the AAPL chart posted in this thread. It matches the hype cycle chart even better than bitcoin does. That person's wish "why can't we be more like AAPL" is a dangerous wish indeed
In 1999, there was a company in Finland doing some specialist software. About 50 employees and made healthy profit. The owners wanted to take it public. Because of the IT boom, the IPO was oversubscribed 50 times, the minimum was 200 shares and many paid for more. In the allocation everyone was given 25 shares. The company received 50,000 new owners.
Now, the adult population in Finland is 4.2 million and we know that women do not invest. So 2.4% of the adult male population (18-108 years) participated. This is a bubble.
When we have 50000 users of bitcoin in Finland, and everyone has invested a mere € 5000, the total investment is € 250 million. At these prices, it takes about € 1 million of new investment to move the price up $1. So Finland alone could warrant the price going to around $300.
And it is good to remember that Bitcoin is not a 50-employee software company.
And that Finland is not the world.
Now, the adult population in Finland is 4.2 million and we know that women do not invest. So 2.4% of the adult male population (18-108 years) participated. This is a bubble.
When we have 50000 users of bitcoin in Finland, and everyone has invested a mere € 5000, the total investment is € 250 million. At these prices, it takes about € 1 million of new investment to move the price up $1. So Finland alone could warrant the price going to around $300.
And it is good to remember that Bitcoin is not a 50-employee software company.
And that Finland is not the world.
I think most people's greatest fear is the governments/established organizations' retaliation.
Why can't we be like Apple?
From http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/10/24/some-tech-bubble-stocks-finally-breaking-even-after-a-10-year-wait/
Apple
The Apple that we see in 2009 isn’t the Apple that existed in 1999. Steve Jobs wasn’t in the picture, no one but Napster had made any significant headway on the MP3 front, and Wall Street really didn’t care all that much about Apple because everyone thought that Microsoft would take over the world.
However, I included Apple in this simple case study to show how well a stock can perform — regardless of stock market crashes and investment bubbles — when Wall Street believes a true growth story exists.
From http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/10/24/some-tech-bubble-stocks-finally-breaking-even-after-a-10-year-wait/
Apple
The Apple that we see in 2009 isn’t the Apple that existed in 1999. Steve Jobs wasn’t in the picture, no one but Napster had made any significant headway on the MP3 front, and Wall Street really didn’t care all that much about Apple because everyone thought that Microsoft would take over the world.
However, I included Apple in this simple case study to show how well a stock can perform — regardless of stock market crashes and investment bubbles — when Wall Street believes a true growth story exists.
I take it you are comparing Bitcoin to the early stage of the Apple chart? Wall street did not just believe in the growth story - the story was backed up by accelerating earnings growth, and the recent fall in Apple is attributed to the idea (right or wrong) that the growth story is over for Apple. Similarly, we will need to see accelerated growth in the Bitcoin economy in order to sustain an Apple-like move. I like the chances of this, which is why I'm holding long-term.
This crash from 700 to 450 is not what i would like for bitcoin, so no, i hope we are not like apple 
Why can't we be like Apple?
From http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/10/24/some-tech-bubble-stocks-finally-breaking-even-after-a-10-year-wait/
Apple
The Apple that we see in 2009 isn’t the Apple that existed in 1999. Steve Jobs wasn’t in the picture, no one but Napster had made any significant headway on the MP3 front, and Wall Street really didn’t care all that much about Apple because everyone thought that Microsoft would take over the world.
However, I included Apple in this simple case study to show how well a stock can perform — regardless of stock market crashes and investment bubbles — when Wall Street believes a true growth story exists.
From http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/10/24/some-tech-bubble-stocks-finally-breaking-even-after-a-10-year-wait/
Apple
The Apple that we see in 2009 isn’t the Apple that existed in 1999. Steve Jobs wasn’t in the picture, no one but Napster had made any significant headway on the MP3 front, and Wall Street really didn’t care all that much about Apple because everyone thought that Microsoft would take over the world.
However, I included Apple in this simple case study to show how well a stock can perform — regardless of stock market crashes and investment bubbles — when Wall Street believes a true growth story exists.
In 1999, there was a company in Finland doing some specialist software. About 50 employees and made healthy profit. The owners wanted to take it public. Because of the IT boom, the IPO was oversubscribed 50 times, the minimum was 200 shares and many paid for more. In the allocation everyone was given 25 shares. The company received 50,000 new owners.
Now, the adult population in Finland is 4.2 million and we know that women do not invest. So 2.4% of the adult male population (18-108 years) participated. This is a bubble.
When we have 50000 users of bitcoin in Finland, and everyone has invested a mere € 5000, the total investment is € 250 million. At these prices, it takes about € 1 million of new investment to move the price up $1. So Finland alone could warrant the price going to around $300.
And it is good to remember that Bitcoin is not a 50-employee software company.
And that Finland is not the world.
Now, the adult population in Finland is 4.2 million and we know that women do not invest. So 2.4% of the adult male population (18-108 years) participated. This is a bubble.
When we have 50000 users of bitcoin in Finland, and everyone has invested a mere € 5000, the total investment is € 250 million. At these prices, it takes about € 1 million of new investment to move the price up $1. So Finland alone could warrant the price going to around $300.
And it is good to remember that Bitcoin is not a 50-employee software company.
And that Finland is not the world.
Does the "hype cycle" chart still apply if the technology really is a "new paradigm"? I hope the fact that that was my first question is not a bad sign...
I've already gone through the 'despair' phase - you saying there's more despair to follow?
Please Jesus, no more despair.
Please Jesus, no more despair.
Well, degree of despair is relative to degree of hope/joy or something like that. If we rally to 300, then pull back to 120, as suggested above, then 120 will seem like despair after 300, but still awesome relative to current price, and especially relative to the dip to 2. And I can assure you that long before we get to 300, there will be some pullbacks to get you down. One thing is certain - we will not simply stair step up to 300, or even 100 for that matter.
I've already gone through the 'despair' phase - you saying there's more despair to follow?
Please Jesus, no more despair.
Please Jesus, no more despair.
Even if 2011 was the first sell-off, followed by the bear trap at $2, we have along ways to go yet. Not sure the institutional investor phase is as relevant for Bitcoin since it wasn't part of any official market to begin with. So we could be starting the mania phase now even though institutional investing has just barely begun. If we see the general public get involved in Bitcoin as an investment (without corresponding widespread use as a currency), with really high expectations for appreciation, that might be the sign we are nearing a major top. I remember reading an article by a trader who made bank when the internet bubble burst back in 2000, and one of the things that clued him in to the top was that his plumber was going on about some internet stock, saying how it was a lifetime investment he was going to pass on to his kids, etc. The problem at the time was that valuations had greatly outpaced the underlying development of internet commerce. Given the rapid appreciation of BTC price recently, it too may outpace underlying development and require a major correction. A lot depends on how fast the Bitcoin economy can grow, and be an instrument of commerce rather than mere speculation.
Oh god, he has pictures! Pictures with lines! Tell us prophet, from doth where do thee gather such infinite knowledge?!
He's not telling. He wants us to "discuss"
Jump to: