Two types of predictors in bitcoin market.

Accardo

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Quote from: Zilon on December 23, 2022, 09:00:26 AM

One thing about Bitcoin is that Fudders end up becoming shillers. Saylor made the tweet in the days of his ignorance, When I presume he knew nothing about how Bitcoin works and what it is meant to solve. Sometime around 2013 upwards, Bitcoin was still at it early stage of introduction, so it was seen by the present big market players as a possible gamble deal. Saylor today is among the top Bitcoin holders, the reason why no one is to be trusted with investment advices except for every one to do their own research because Fudders are never static in their critics they will become Shillers when the knowledge of what the Fud has prospects.

Yes, Of course, That wasn't his fault regarding the fluctuation of bitcoin price without a big ATH as of then. Given time bitcoin got to a better price, which changed his mind despite the fact he hasn't earned much profits from bitcoin he still trusts bitcoin. With such ATH Saylor strongly believe that bitcoin will perform more than that price soon, I think its the reason he fully jumped into bitcoin. Regardless of the bearish market.

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One thing about Bitcoin is that Fudders end up becoming shillers. Saylor made the tweet in the days of his ignorance, When I presume he knew nothing about how Bitcoin works and what it is meant to solve. Sometime around 2013 upwards, Bitcoin was still at it early stage of introduction, so it was seen by the present big market players as a possible gamble deal. Saylor today is among the top Bitcoin holders, the reason why no one is to be trusted with investment advices except for every one to do their own research because Fudders are never static in their critics they will become Shillers when the knowledge of what the Fud has prospects.

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Quote from: Accardo on December 21, 2022, 11:15:12 AM

They're those whose responses about bitcoin are always positive and others who were skeptical about bitcoin that are now full-time bitcoiners.

It's clear that such people and responses still exist in recent times, and many users of bitcoin fall prey to the negative predictors. This thread is about two significant people in cryptocurrency; Hal Finney and Michael Saylor who predicted the future of bitcoin, one was positive, the other negative. The false prediction failed and the predictor, Michael Saylor, is now big and deep into bitcoin to an extent of dropping his position as the CEO of Micro strategy to invest completely into bitcoin.

Sometimes, those who have negative thoughts about bitcoin end up becoming full-time bitcoiners in the future and that's a good reason bitcoin users should stay strong in this journey. In the year 2010 Hal Finney's predictions about bitcoin

This is a bullish prediction and if the banks should adopt bitcoin that means they'll be a spike in bitcoin price. Though it looks uncertain, if Michael Saylor after making such a tweet about bitcoin is, today, a big investor of bitcoin then the banks despite the rivalry could change their minds about bitcoin.

As I pointed out in my intro, most people must have changed their minds against bitcoin after reading this tweet. How will they feel to see that Michael Saylor is now for bitcoin? They'll feel disappointed and regret listening to him at first. In summary, stay strong with this journey as those whose perspectives are against bitcoin will definitely, one day, adopt the currency, even the banks.

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One has to have balls to admit he/she was wrong and didn't see the potential straight away. As an investor, MS had to see that potential of Bitcoin and it would have happened sooner or later. MS was pretty early btw, there are some BTC haters who still haven't realized they're wrong and still think BTC is destined to fail and is going to zero every bear market. Grin

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Quote from: hugeblack on December 23, 2022, 05:02:57 AM

I am convinced that many have become emotionally defending bitcoin as if it is closer to a religious sect than a digital currency that has advantages and disadvantages and may die in the future, but it is now the best that centralized technology can offer and may have a very high value in the coming years.

It is natural to protect what we love and Bitcoinists just protect what they love and believe in that is Bitcoin.

If Nokia, yahoo can collapse, Bitcoin can collapse too. But before anything that is too big occurs, Bitcoin is strong. The magic power of Bitcoin is its decentralization which can not be found in other cryptocurrencies.

Because we have yet had other decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Bitcoin is still a strongest and most attractive cryptocurrency. In future, I don't see how the world can have another decentralized crypto like Bitcoin.

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In general, regardless of personal opinions, what happens in the coming years is what will determine the future of this currency, and the statements of individuals differ accordingly.

I beg to differ that Bitcoin won't be beaten by other cryptocurrencies. Like Gold that is not a most precious metal on Earth but it is a most favorite one. Diamond can not compare to gold in popularity.

hugeblack

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I am convinced that many have become emotionally defending bitcoin as if it is closer to a religious sect than a digital currency that has advantages and disadvantages and may die in the future, but it is now the best that centralized technology can offer and may have a very high value in the coming years.
In general, regardless of personal opinions, what happens in the coming years is what will determine the future of this currency, and the statements of individuals differ accordingly.

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Quote from: Z-tight on December 21, 2022, 11:31:19 AM

Quote from: Accardo on December 21, 2022, 11:15:12 AM

As I pointed out in my intro, most people must have changed their minds against bitcoin after reading this tweet. How will they feel to see that Michael Saylor is now for bitcoin? They'll feel disappointed and regret listening to him at first.

Michael Saylor isn't the only one to doubt BTC from the start and later love the network, many "true bitcoiners" didn't trust BTC at the start, but i think it is normal with every new technology, people fail to trust it at inception but as time goes on they get to understand a lot about it, then they get involved.

People should not change their minds about anything because of what someone else tweeted, they should research and find out information by themselves. Even if there are people who listened to him then, there is still room to accommodate them all right now Cheesy

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I agree, if there are people out there which have taken the time to really look at bitcoin and they do not like what they see then I have no problem with it.

The issue is there are many people out there which simply read a negative tweet or some false news and they let such a thing to dictate their opinion about a topic which they know nothing, and then they keep that stance despite the new evidence that may contradict their current views, so it is key to inform ourselves about a topic in which we are interested and then decide by ourselves what our posture will be.

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I guess somebody only has to take a second look at Bitcoin to know that it is way more than what it appeared at first. Not a few rejected Bitcoin when they first encountered it. First impression doesn't last with Bitcoin. If not rejected, they didn't give too much weight to it. They took it with a grain of salt. It's only when they took a more serious look at it the second time around that they realized how fantastic such technology actually was. Or, in the case of many others, they only needed to take a look at Bitcoin beyond its price. That's the turning point. And when they're already into the rabbit hole, it's almost impossible to get out.

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Quote from: Stedsm on December 22, 2022, 05:24:05 PM

First of all, banks will not adopt Bitcoin as a reserve currency, at least not for some decades because they need stability and Bitcoin doesn't have it. Next, listening to any big name in crypto (be it Musk or Saylor) is literally stupid because they change their statements with time. Let Michael Saylor see BTC near $10k (if BTC ever reaches there during this bear run) and then we'll see his new colors about the giant crypto.

From January 2025 central banks will be allowed to have up to 2% of their reserves in Bitcoin: https://coinculture.com/au/policy-regulation/bis-now-allows-banks-to-keep-2-of-their-reserves-in-crypto/

The banks actually asked for 5%, but the BIS who had first said 1% moved it to 2% to reach a compromise.

Quote from: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/bis-finalizes-bitcoin-bank-limits

The BIS had previously considered a policy of 1% for global banks. In turn, the banks requested a 5% reserve limit. This 2% appears to be a compromise between the two. According to data from 2020, if applied to all banks in the world, who collectively custody approximately $180 trillion, this would amount to a limit of $3.6 trillion in bitcoin held by such entities.

Things are changing quickly, and Bitcoin adoption is happening right in front of our eyes.

Kelvinid

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Unfortunately, we can't make all people believe what others have seen about Bitcoin, haters will exist.
In fact, even the government has never seen it as useful to the community. Banks are against Bitcoin, many individuals also think the same. Even people who are here in crypto are still in doubt about Bitcoin which is why they usually become depressed when seeing the price drop and then say it was the end of crypto.

I could say that the bear season has its purpose. Those who have faith and trust in Bitcoin will hold but those who are not will simply sell their Bitcoin as a response to the market decline.

Stedsm

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First of all, banks will not adopt Bitcoin as a reserve currency, at least not for some decades because they need stability and Bitcoin doesn't have it. Next, listening to any big name in crypto (be it Musk or Saylor) is literally stupid because they change their statements with time. Let Michael Saylor see BTC near $10k (if BTC ever reaches there during this bear run) and then we'll see his new colors about the giant crypto.

Hypnosis00

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Remember that not all people will agree on a single idea or thing. We actually hear positive and negative views no matter what we do. As these haters will never see the goodness of one thing but for them is to look and dig the negative one and spread it as they believe this could give them satisfaction.
If you are searching online about Bitcoin it certainly gives you different opinions - negative and positive. It was a question of what is to believe and what is not when some known names and influencers have different views about Bitcoin ( like these two guys that you have mentioned OP). In the end - we use our faith and take the option that we think was right.

PrivacyG

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Hal's remark was based on a lot of knowledge about Bitcoin. Saylor likely did not even know what Bitcoin actually was at the time.

All of us likely said something inaccurate about Bitcoin back when we were beginners. I thought transactions and addresses can not be traced and analyzed and even told others the same misinformation. Reading Saylor's Tweet feels just like that. Ultimately, I rather trust words coming from a mouth speaking knowledge than from someone who speaks based on misleading article titles and speculation. What you posted explains and proves a thing. Predictions are all about chance.

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teosanru

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It's really beautiful to see how these predictors even sometimes Change their perspectives based on the market cycles. Like most of them will think of Bitcoin as the greatest invention when the market is at highs and most of it will see it as a complete failure during the bear markets. Which clearly indicates how heavily they are exposed and how much they are in touch with the large institutions who spread the FUD and FOMO both.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on December 22, 2022, 02:46:26 PM

I don't trust people who were openly very negative about Bitcoin and then stopped. As I see it, they are unreliable, unless they specifically apologise and recognize that they were mistaken earlier. When I googled "Saylor admits being wrong about Bitcoin", I can't see any sincere apologies. I understand people who were mildly skeptical and then gradually became convinced Bitcoiners, but I wouldn't trust Saylor and wouldn't be surprised if at some point he starts spreading FUD about Bitcoin instead.

Very negative or Very positive, im not really that a fan on hearing out those words from someone, although it is really somewhat good to hear up on having those positive sentiments but there are indeed times which

sentiments are really that turning into the point that it is already that exaggerated or something that cant be possibly happening but well we do have our own perceptions on things in relation to this.

As an investor or individual who do engage out with crypto investment then its always depending on you on how you would really gonna deal up
with these speculations whether you do make yourself affected or not.

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Quote from: Accardo on December 21, 2022, 11:15:12 AM

Sometimes, those who have negative thoughts about bitcoin end up becoming full-time Bitcoiners in the future and that's a good reason bitcoin users should stay strong in this journey.

It is often true that the people who were negatively bearish on Bitcoin once proven to be wrong became full-fledged Bitcoin enthusiasts for a reason that their negative view about Bitcoin has been debunked. They are not negative about Bitcoin because they are true anti-Bitcoin instead they are just skeptical but open to proof and facts. These people are even more loyal than most believers because their doubts and questions are fully debunked by the development and adoption of Bitcoin

kryptqnick

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I don't trust people who were openly very negative about Bitcoin and then stopped. As I see it, they are unreliable, unless they specifically apologise and recognize that they were mistaken earlier. When I googled "Saylor admits being wrong about Bitcoin", I can't see any sincere apologies. I understand people who were mildly skeptical and then gradually became convinced Bitcoiners, but I wouldn't trust Saylor and wouldn't be surprised if at some point he starts spreading FUD about Bitcoin instead.

The Cryptovator

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Predictions should not be taken too seriously. Predictions are never accurate. Those who love Bitcoin will have high expectations, while those who despise Bitcoin will have low expectations. When planning to accumulate Bitcoin, keep the market situation in mind at all times. Holders are unconcerned about whether the prediction is positive or negative. We should prepare our brains to analyze. As a result, we can make our own prediction and proceed.

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Apparently Saylor is now one of those deep investor of bitcoin inspite of being spiteful before about it and now keep buying. He maybe realize its potential when he see adoption is growing and before only just a nuisance and nnoise cause of lack of knowledge about it. Thats how a perspective changed easily when they research something useful about it.

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.. not. .mmn ppl lol the tb we jump lot of
No say that those who always have positive things to say do not necessarily always bring something good to the table. Same goes the other way round.

One favourite paraphrase of Satoshi is how he said Bitcoin would either have massive transaction volumes or zero. That's just being realistic. And we all know what they brought to the table.

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Quote from: hd49728 on December 22, 2022, 04:17:58 AM

Predictors have two types.

A first type are predictors who have models, foundations and do mathematics for their predictions. I consider they are comprehensive predictors

A second type are predictors who announce their predictions emotionally and don't base on any thing. If you ask them, why do you think and base on what factors you make that predictive price for Bitcoin? I am sure they will not be able to give you good answers.

Either category would give reasonable answers simply because there's no right or wrong answer in the first place. Investment by any means has risk and an investor may 'bet' on his/her luck or capabilities as an individual whether which ability is to trust in order to generate profit. I am more of a comprehensive investor and an affectionate one. A combination of two such as reflecting to current occurence in this industry(both good and bad), and while using technical analysis. I am not saying I am a good investor in this industry but rather, to simply point out that in any category of investor you'd fall, it is either loss or profit you'd meet simply because there are no consistencies in this industry.

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