Topic: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2022/23 | Qualifying - page 25. (Read 12018 times)

Juventus don't have an odd worth betting on. I mean that single bet wouldn't be logical for only a 1.31 odd however it can be a nice choice to be added to a multi of course.

Because I also believe in Juventus to win against Maccabi Haifa to start a good form finally. After a horrible start to the season in each tournament they are in, they need to get a decent win to improve their morale. Maccabi Haifa match is a good opportunity for that. Juventus still maintain their chance to qualify from the group despite being 6 points behind their closest opponent. They must defeat Maccabi Haifa two times in a row to increase their chance and this isn't a difficult task to perform. If they gain some momentum I'm pretty sure they will do better. In this way, people would stop criticizing Allegri harshly also.

I do think that it is pretty normal to judge games with a realistic sense. What does that realistic sense look like?

Well, if we repeat the game between and Barcelona the exact same way for 100 times and we allow for some likelihoods to be applied to, for instance, Lewandowski shooting the ball across the bar from that position early on in the game, that game is taking another direction. Or Gavi failing to score out of less than 5 meters...

I am not saying that Bayern had no chance, they always have a chance as their quality is just too high to not have any chance at all. Even Muller and Neuer said after the game that there is really no reason to be overly optimistic given how the game went. Or the penalty situation with Dembele. This game a lot of things went in Bayern's favor, things that were NOT under their control. That is why I say luck was with them this time.

A standard situation turning a game upside down can always happen and it makes the sport exciting for spectators as well if a game can take an unexpected turn. A good example is Villareal against Bayern last season.

As is said in law, being right does not automatically lead to getting justice. I think I am more or less able to assess what team was better, but lacked a little bit of luck in the end. It's great that Madrid made it because that is an amazing story. And why is it so amazing? That even Kroos said this title was quite special and probably won't happen that way again? Because it won't happen again... There were so many situations that even Real Madrid didn't expect to play out in their favor for a good reason. Donnaruma throwing away the win with his spectacular failure and so on.

Saying "the team who won is the deserved winner" would definitely apply if no external actors had influence. Penalty or not for Dembele against Bayern? A lot of referees would have blown the whistle.

It's time again

Tuesday 4th October

Bayern Munich 17:45 FC Viktoria Plzen
Marseille 17:45 Sporting Lisbon
Ajax 20:00 Napoli
Club Brugge 20:00 Atletico Madrid
Eintracht Frankfurt 20:00 Tottenham Hotspur
FC Porto 20:00 Bayer Leverkusen
Inter Milan 20:00 Barcelona
Liverpool 20:00 Rangers

Wednesday 5th October

RB Leipzig 17:45 Celtic
Red Bull Salzburg 17:45 Dinamo Zagreb
Benfica 20:00 Paris Saint-Germain
Chelsea 20:00 AC Milan
Juventus 20:00 Maccabi Haifa
Manchester City 20:00 FC Copenhagen
Real Madrid 20:00 Shakhtar Donetsk
Sevilla 20:00 Borussia Dortmund



Already last call for Juventus, if they don't win they will almost be out of the Champions.

Source: https://www.skysports.com/champions-league-fixtures

Chelsea may not be able to produce good results right away, but I think that they will be able to do so with some patience. The performance of the team will have to be improved. I believe that it will take some time for the new coach to get settled into the organization, especially with the new coach. Also, the new coach will need some time to figure out which tactic is best for the team.

So, for some reason, I think Milan might have the upper hand going into this match. Nevertheless, I have to say that the performance of Milan has also not been the best that it has been in the past. I will not be surprised if this match ends up in a draw.

This must be the year for one of PSG and Manchester City teams actually.

I know how much PSG are trying to win the Champions League title. They've done everything they could to extend Mbappe's contract also. Because he is the mainstay of this team undoubtedly. Without him, they are much weaker especially in the Champions League. The reason why they brought Messi was that he would play solidly with his old friend and teammate Neymar also. They are doing everything they can to achieve the title for the first time.

However we shouldn't forget about Manchester City at this point. I find them stronger as a team. After signing Haaland the team performance has increased incredibly high compared to before. With the help of his insane performance, they are a huge threat to any team competing in this tournament. Let's see which one of these teams will make it further.

Of course they had made it to the finals but they failed. With the current condition of the players, of course, they are the favorites to win. But I think they're going to go through some tough games. Last season if you remember Madrid were also not seeded but they were champions. Sometimes you have to remember, there are always surprises in UCL matches. In addition we must bear in mind there are internal problems between their three stars. I think it's a ready issue to go back to being a destroyer of teamwork.

They certainly look like a team that could win it this year, but to be fair they looked like that last year as well. Look at their roster this year, and what they have achieved so far, they are really playing at a different level and they are looking better than even last year. I believe that they could win it, but they need to figure out that locker room trouble first.

They are acting like child when things do not go their way, it's a very tough job to recover ones belief in themselves when someone loses it, and when they get scored, they do not have that fire to make a comeback, they need that because in further stages of UCL they will need it.

  Hmm... it's not even funny to be honest. The ability to realize moments is the same skill as any other. Bayern were stronger in this match and saying that Barcelona should have won is not serious. Just as frivolously as some still talk about the fact that Real Madrid was lucky last season.
By the way, you probably think that Barcelona should have won the Europa League last year, right?

As for comparing Barcelona and Tottenham, the point is not in their personal comparison (and by the way I'm not sure that Tottenham is weaker than Barcelona in a personal meeting), but in the fact that in order to become a champion you must defeat the rest of the competitors (and not one). I do not see a single factor that would say that Tottenham are weaker than Barcelona on average relative to other rivals, but there are such factors regarding Barcelona - for example, their inability to play against the bus and simply disciplined teams playing on the counter.

Sure they're used to it but they're still at a disadvantage vs the other clubs across Europe because those clubs have less hectic schedules than the EPL clubs.  So more rest, fresher layers, higher chance of getting the green W.    Even Guardiola and Klopp complained about the tight schedule in the EPL when they first arrived in England.  Not to mention the weather during the busiest part of the year.  It's fkn cold.

Anyway, my matches to watch next week are Inter vs Barca and Sevilla vs Dortmund.  How would you guys act on these matches from a betting perspective?

In addition to the good schools that Benfica has, and is taking advantage of the trained players. This season they also made good signings, which have been performing well.
The choice of coach also seems to have been the right one, as he is getting the best out of Benfica's players.

I think this season should be Paris Saint Germain time to win the champions League,they have done everything just to win this tournament, is the only trophy they have not win since they new owners bought the club, the brought Lionel Messi and Sergio Ramos last season which for me are the two best in there positions, just like my brother always said at attack, Messi is the best,at  midfield Luca modric is the best then at defence Ramos is the best, unfortunately for Paris Saint Germain last season Ramos was injured all through the season he just played few games while Messi was adjusting to new surroundings but this year both of them have adapt well and are playing to prove their critics wrong, so I think they are the favourite.

Manchester City's performance was stable in the last season as well. They had a strong squad. But their attack was a bit weak. But this season they added Haaland to the squad to strengthen their attack. At the same time, Guardiola has changed his match strategy and formation. Manchester City is stronger than ever. With any weaknesses at the moment in their defense, midfield, and forward. So Manchester City is favorites for the Champions League title this season as well. Manchester City might be able to win the title this season if they don't make big mistakes like last season.

Nobody sacks a coach like Guardiola. He doesn't even deserve to be mentioned in sack examples for any reason. Everything is not about champions league. No England club will sack a coach who is winning the English Premier league back to back because he failed to win the champions league.

Guardiola has proven that he is a good coach and has made Manchester City formidable. Winning of champions league is not a test of his capability but a consolidation of his prime work.

Aside from the English clubs, Napoli and Benfica are worth to mention since they're really strong on their own local league and they're have won 2 matches in UEFA. Napoli already find their missing piece after Min-Jae Kim join Napoli, he have very good performance as a defender, he block many shots. While Benfica, they're already strong and have produced many good players. Even though Nunez already move to Liverpool, but Goncalo Ramos is perfectly replace Nunez position.

It's not just that. Man City maintain the traditional English culture of continuity, by keeping the same manager for several years. Which makes sense, if a club has a strong structure and a style of its own, it will be easier to maintain success. Players are always changing, due to ideas, injuries and other factors. The structure in this period, if it remains the same, can maintain a good result.

Just look at the majority of English clubs that keep their managers for several years. Sometimes a coach is more likely to leave than to be fired. In England it is very noticeable when a club changes coach many times. It's not a consistent club. And in England the fans, in addition to victories, want to see their club give everything to win even if it doesn't happen.

Pep Guardiola's unique system is hard to be replaced for Manchester City. This is the main reason they don't even think about sacking Guardiola for not winning the Champions League.

The team have a solid game plan for many years and this is the main factor they have been dominant in the Premier League in this period of time. They have added some other championships to their collection in the meantime of course. Last season was an opportunity for them but they were really unlucky against Real Madrid. Luck factor is also important for a team and Manchester City experienced this very badly. This season the expectation from them has got bigger after Haaland came and started to play like a beast in a short time. Guardiola might finally reach his main goal with this team to relieve finally before deciding to leave the team in the future.

I think Manchester City have a different approach and style to sacking managers because if they were to act like Chelsea, Pep Guardiola would have been sacked a long time ago for failing to win the champions league especially after coming so close to semi finals and the finals and losing he would have been sacked immediately but the club has given him more time and support instead which seems very fair after all he has been doing so well in the league and winning other trophies.

From my point of view, Manchester City and Real Madrid are in the best form and position to be listed as favourites to win the trophy and on that thought I also predict both teams except some other teams pick up to good form this and challenge these teams in the champions league but until then It is certainly a competition between madrid and PSG this season.

There were exactly two games where Tottenham played convincingly strong soccer. That was against Southampton and against (an extremely weak) Leicester City. They barely won against Marseille (one man down for over 45 minutes) and they lost against Sporting Lissabon. The game against Manchester City was rescheduled, which would have actually been the only game to make a first judgment.

Fc Barcelona should have won the game against Bayern. They were the better team, but Lewandowski and I think Gavi screwed it with missing their 1000% chances before Bayern took the lead by means of a corner that found the head of Hernandez.

Except for the first game in La Liga against Rayo Vallecano and the unlucky loss against Bayern, I would clearly see them ahead of Tottenham right now. That doesn't mean they would 100% win a head to head of course, but if the question now was about the odds in a game Barcelona vs. Tottenham, I would probably lean towards a 60-65% to 40-35% in favor of Barcelona. That does not perfectly reflect the difference in the odds provided, but I would definitely say Barcelona seems to be stronger than Tottenham right now.

Let's look at the opinion of bookmakers:

Manchester city 2.85 - 35% chance of winning, City is overrated in my opinion. A title every three years in the presence of a crowd of competitors? Don't even dream, sheikhs!

Paris Saint Germain 5.55 - 18% but the second place among all contenders? That's just funny.

Bayern Munich 6.05 - in my opinion Bavaria is underestimated, even considering their current problems.

Liverpool 7.55 - 13% looks like a fair estimate, but still Liverpool is overrated.

RealMadrid 10.10 - LOL, comments are redundant.
 
Barcelona 11.70 - the most incomprehensible estimate in my opinion - on the one hand, only 8.5%, which can be called a modest/fair chance. On the other hand, I have not yet seen a single confirmation this season that Barcelona is ready to compete with strong clubs. Why is it fundamentally better than Tottenham (which has a coefficient of 18.9)? I do not see.