Italy with a defensive play style will be difficult to penetrate by Croatia, so I see Italy who will finish in the second position of this group because Albania even though playing beyond many people's expectations will find it difficult to beat Spain even though Spain will not play with full strength so the best result that Albania might achieve against Spain will be a draw, so even though three the team still has the opportunity to qualify but Italy is greater the chances while Croatia the opportunity becomes difficult and even closed when it fails to maintain the lead against Albania.
Italy know that they only need a point from this match but they also know that if they begin this match with the goal to have a draw and play too passively, they will receive a lot of pressure from Croatia. This can start a nightmare for them because Croatia has enough ambition and quality to beat Italy.
Albania almost have no chance to beat Spain even if Spain will not use their main squad. The best result for Albania is a draw against Spain and this means they will not be able to get a second position or third position in this group. Only Croatia or Italy can compete for the second position from their direct match.
Croatia which is having good team and skilled players completely down this time specially their performance against Albania was lower their level which is big question mark for them in coming game against Italy but still we can give them good chance in this game for having surprise with win can bring good motivation for them in coming matches.
They did played not too bad in first two matches but lack of concentration costs them a lot. Now they have only one more chance to fix mistakes from two previous matches but beating Italy will not be easy. Both Italy and Croatia did not have their best forms in Euro 2024 but Italy will play a third match with more options for their tactics and playing intensity to secure a second position.
I tend to think more of a draw for Italy in this match and Modric will have a bad tournament with his national team, same for Perisic.