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Topic: ugh, timing the market isn't worth the trouble (Read 2256 times)

newbie
Activity: 5
Merit: 0
November 16, 2013, 01:45:52 PM
#23
Don't try to surf the waves
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Mate, I've been guilty of trying this.. I know it's bad, I lose at it, yet I keep rolling the dice essentially gambling with my BTC.

Offline wallet is definitely the way to go. If I never played the trading game I'd be $35,000USD richer. I hate gambling, you'll never see me put down $100 on anything but poker at the casino. But for some reason I'm willing to throw away my BTC as soon as the lights start flashing on bitcoinity. In short I've got a gambling problem.

I hate it, because everytime I buy back in higher, it makes me more vulnerable to a drop, to the point where I might actually be losing money by holding BTC. I used to top up my BTC by depositing more money in, now at these rates I just can't afford to. $1k is only 2BTC! Ludicrous. My BTC is dwindling and I'll never make it back

Despite what you think, there's no way to predict what will happen.

Trading = Gambling

It's addictive. Don't do it. Buy and hold is the only way to go.


Lol,Many of us have been guilty of doing this but imagine doing it to 100 BTC trading for other virtual currencies.Buy and hold is great strategy but I think if there is solid information the price will tank sell and buy later.
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
Buy and hold is surely the best strategy but moderate day trading is also a way to connect to
the essence of Bitcoin. Just remember to regularly rebalance your portfolio. The coming weeks
will be easy - just buy all the coins you can get your hands on because the only way is up!
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Mate, I've been guilty of trying this.. I know it's bad, I lose at it, yet I keep rolling the dice essentially gambling with my BTC.

Offline wallet is definitely the way to go. If I never played the trading game I'd be $35,000USD richer. I hate gambling, you'll never see me put down $100 on anything but poker at the casino. But for some reason I'm willing to throw away my BTC as soon as the lights start flashing on bitcoinity. In short I've got a gambling problem.

I hate it, because everytime I buy back in higher, it makes me more vulnerable to a drop, to the point where I might actually be losing money by holding BTC. I used to top up my BTC by depositing more money in, now at these rates I just can't afford to. $1k is only 2BTC! Ludicrous. My BTC is dwindling and I'll never make it back

Despite what you think, there's no way to predict what will happen.

Trading = Gambling

It's addictive. Don't do it. Buy and hold is the only way to go.

sr. member
Activity: 330
Merit: 255
I succeded in making a little money today by selling 7.5 bitcoins and then buying 7.5 bitcoins at a lower price...

Why not hedge the naked short BTC position with a simultaneous long in futures? The naked short left you at risk of a clobbering, had BTC risen. Buying futures while shorting BTC offers at least some protection against that outcome, while the leverage of futures provides a relatively straightforward way of limiting the corresponding loss on that side should BTC fall really nicely.

(Alternatively, rather than risking a big chunk of capital, a short future could offer a similar level of gain without so much initial commitment, again due to their leverage.)
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
Too many people are waiting for a correction to buy lower, exactly the reason it just ain't gonna happen yet.

It will happen. You know when? When those waiting for a correction will give up and start buying.

Yes, not yet, but eventually it will happen. Well, just keep some powder dry to buy at lower prices Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
All markets are almost impossible to trade in short time-frames, bitcoin perhaps the worst.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
Too many people are waiting for a correction to buy lower, exactly the reason it just ain't gonna happen yet.

It will happen. You know when? When those waiting for a correction will give up and start buying.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
Too many people are waiting for a correction to buy lower, exactly the reason it just ain't gonna happen yet.
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
Better to buy and hold

Very good advice. Bitcoin is where Berkshire Hathaway was at in 1980. Look at it now. A moderate Bitcoin investment now could be astronomical in 30 years.
newbie
Activity: 33
Merit: 0
I'm wondering about this too. Wide spreads and loads of slippage are also not helping.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1001
RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to LOSE more $$$

Fixed.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1028
I succeded in making a little money today by selling 7.5 bitcoins and then buying 7.5 bitcoins at a lower price (I traded on coinbase.com).
But I had to tie up several thousand dollars for several days to do it.

You just made 2.5x what holding a 1-year CD at a bank will earn you in those few days. In a market with 5% volatility in hours you can make this much pretty easily as long as you recognize the risk of getting locked in for a potentially long time if your BTC position goes down.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 501
to me it's really no difference if I would have in a year or five 1 mil or 1.5mil $
that's why I just hold bitcoins and continue to create site that accepts them. that should benefit everybody.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
I've lost so many btc also trying to do this, and gained a handful of times vs lost.

That being said it is tempting especially if you see a real opportunity like last night's climb to 445 - a rebuy at 407 put me back at bitstamp prices and clearly I can't help myself.

My real mistake is trading with too much % of my btc, if I had kept it to only 20% or so I'd be much much more well off today.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

Risk/Reward is too low... Greed can become a killer...  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
Depends on how you look at it, but even you made $30 USD extra a day,5 days a week x 48 week, you'll have $7,200 USD and may be more on top of your regular investment and salary from your day job!

As the market is open 24/7, more chance to to make more $$$

Good Luck!!!

yeah and of course there's never ever going to be negative trades!
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
agree!  How long China will suspend the trading fee?

Here is an article ... http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchange-btc-china-eliminates-trading-fees/

I recall somewhere that BTC China still makes money with a fiat withdrawal fee.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
ASIC Myth Buster
agree!  How long China will suspend the trading fee?

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Gox charges about half of one percent per trade, so a round trip costs about 1 percent of the timiing-motivated trade. Furthermore, the bid/ask spread also subtracts from round-trip profit. Even a good mechanical trading system such as trend-following moving averages is more about protecting capital from downdrafts than beating buy-and-hold. Lucky those folks trading on BTC China with a temporary suspension of trading fees.

After surrendering a substantial amount of my coins to gox fees, I am through with timing and resigned to buy more immediately and hold in an offline paper wallet for at least 48 months.
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