So less than 10k blocks ~60 days until halving reward. Here's anothers thoughts.
At this point, miners will be maximally hoarding coins in expectation of having to supplement their decreased btc income post-halving with saved coins. On this assumption miners will only be releasing those coins that they absolutely need to for covering exactly mining expenses, what does this mean? This means that the current actual btc issuance rate onto the market is very close to the cost of production. Further, let's assume that bitcoin pricing is being set at the margin by these fresh coins such that average cost of production is now then reflected very close to current market price. Which is backed up by the lack of success shorts are having bashing down prices very much at all, since it is hard up against the floor of production costs already.
But here's the kicker, if cost of production is being reflected as ~$450 and rising, I'd suggest that by the time halving arrives, and if shorts keep bashing price down such that there is no excess speculation baked in, then price will double within 6 months after halving. So $500-600 by halving and rising to at least twice that 6-12 months after halving is possible under this scenario.
Topic: Ultimate Hloders only thread - do you have a dollar price in mind? (Read 2803 times)
May 05, 2016, 03:20:18 PM
Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reliable choice.
What do you think ?
What do you think ?
Yes, long term it is bullish but how long that long term is depends on the development pace of tools to make handling (storage/transacting) bitcoins privately and securely convenient. The technically-competent wealthy are probably mostly already exposed to bitcoin but there is definitely still a lot of 'dumb' money who feel quite uncomfortable at the thought of having the power to be their own bank with a digital currency (yet will happily hand over millions to Panamanian lawyers because of a recommendation from a wealthy friend "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it").
Bitcoin management tools need to reach that tipping point in the convenience stakes whereby a herd of wealthy people will happily take control of their own wealth and exit the fiat system "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it". When that happens wealthy people will most definitely seek safe haven in bitcoin, in my opinion private wealth management represents the premiere use case in the long term. In the short to medium term, cross border transactions, niche internet commerce innovations, currency trading speculative activity and other weird/wonderful things you can only do with a digital money data type will drive interest.
I do not have a good feel for how the wealthy (as a whole) feel about Bitcoin. I am the only one among those I know who is into BTC (and some of the people I know are rich).
Also, BTC has a low market cap. I only have a small holding of BTC vs my net assets, I hold more gold than BTC.
"Should Bitcoin get traction,..." <--- So many think this way... Yet BTC price would explode should more rich guys start buying BTC.
May 04, 2016, 01:41:14 AM
i am going to have some stages in my mind for the price, and here is how: any price lower than $1000 i will only hold and accumulate as much as i can. but above $1000 i will start spending a little of my coins and still hold and accumulate along the spending.
the real price in my head is $5K and above that would the real value of bitcoin for me but we'll see how much higher it can get.
wow, that is a nice find but sadly it is not block #1
it is block #2 : hash
and there are two more blocks before it #1 and #0 which pay the reward to different addresses
the real price in my head is $5K and above that would the real value of bitcoin for me but we'll see how much higher it can get.
Little know HLoDers fact, the coinbase address for Block #1, yes the first spendable bitcoin key ever created has the address
1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1
HLoD
let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?
1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1
HLoD
let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?
wow, that is a nice find but sadly it is not block #1
it is block #2 : hash
and there are two more blocks before it #1 and #0 which pay the reward to different addresses
May 03, 2016, 05:58:50 PM
Little know HLoDers fact, the coinbase address for Block #2, yes the second spendable bitcoin key ever created has the address
1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1
HLoD
let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?
edit: second not first key.
1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1
HLoD
let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?
edit: second not first key.
May 01, 2016, 10:29:35 PM
Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reliable choice.
What do you think ?
What do you think ?
Yes, long term it is bullish but how long that long term is depends on the development pace of tools to make handling (storage/transacting) bitcoins privately and securely convenient. The technically-competent wealthy are probably mostly already exposed to bitcoin but there is definitely still a lot of 'dumb' money who feel quite uncomfortable at the thought of having the power to be their own bank with a digital currency (yet will happily hand over millions to Panamanian lawyers because of a recommendation from a wealthy friend "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it").
Bitcoin management tools need to reach that tipping point in the convenience stakes whereby a herd of wealthy people will happily take control of their own wealth and exit the fiat system "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it". When that happens wealthy people will most definitely seek safe haven in bitcoin, in my opinion private wealth management represents the premiere use case in the long term. In the short to medium term, cross border transactions, niche internet commerce innovations, currency trading speculative activity and other weird/wonderful things you can only do with a digital money data type will drive interest.
May 01, 2016, 06:14:51 AM
marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?
I'm still digesting this news ... intentionally slowly. It is one of those moves that could have long term implications ... Larry (gold-trashing) Summers and Gavin Andresen getting in bed together just gives me the shivers as a first impression but it needs some pondering.
Maybe another legal name change: G. Andresen -> A. Skywalker
WU is just having a "me too" moment, I don't think they can gain anything from this in terms of materially changing their current technology infrastructure ... just street cred to be not seen as being left behind by their investors/owners.
Someone with large public BTC holdings would make my year buying an advertisement in the WSJ/Economist/FT, offering the Western Union executives super-trollish low offers on their stock (with terms that permit immediate sale/shorting etc)
10 satoshis for their total holdings? 
April 30, 2016, 10:53:14 PM
Thanks for above answer buddy.
I've just saw your ZH article submission to r/bitcoin, I see this insanly bullish.
Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reiable choice.
What do you think ?
I've just saw your ZH article submission to r/bitcoin, I see this insanly bullish.
Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reiable choice.
What do you think ?
April 28, 2016, 06:51:00 PM
marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?
I'm still digesting this news ... intentionally slowly. It is one of those moves that could have long term implications ... Larry (gold-trashing) Summers and Gavin Andresen getting in bed together just gives me the shivers as a first impression but it needs some pondering. WU is just having a "me too" moment, I don't think they can gain anything from this in terms of materially changing their current technology infrastructure ... just street cred to be not seen as being left behind by their investors/owners.
April 28, 2016, 04:14:46 PM
If you zoom in on that BRK-A chart, you will get $1300 in 1984 and $84000 local peak in 1998, then it was choppy for a decade, still $73500 local minimum in 2008.
I cannot wait 32 years to divest at the max, but if bitcoin goes to 10-30K (counting either from 165 minimum or current 450 and using the same multiplier), that would be just fine with me in 14 years. I would use 50% to buy a bunch of RE then and collect monthly payments.
I cannot wait 32 years to divest at the max, but if bitcoin goes to 10-30K (counting either from 165 minimum or current 450 and using the same multiplier), that would be just fine with me in 14 years. I would use 50% to buy a bunch of RE then and collect monthly payments.
April 28, 2016, 03:58:51 PM
marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?
April 26, 2016, 09:02:18 PM
Diversification is worsification. 
April 26, 2016, 08:42:41 PM
I'm thinking of changing the poll now that we've got a big enough sample on this one to draw some conclusions.
It's actually really eye-opening, even though this poll is self-selecting for bitcoin afficianados being on this forum I would not have expected >95% are not selling until we are above $1000 !! That's pretty insane, (but I can agree with that sentiment). And I think the 2 votes for "Next $20 rise" are just trolls so that was my trap question to weed them out ... so in reality we have 1 person out of 53 that will sell for less than $1000.
And more amazingly, we have greater than 50% who are hodling for > $10,000 coin.
It's actually really eye-opening, even though this poll is self-selecting for bitcoin afficianados being on this forum I would not have expected >95% are not selling until we are above $1000 !! That's pretty insane, (but I can agree with that sentiment). And I think the 2 votes for "Next $20 rise" are just trolls so that was my trap question to weed them out ... so in reality we have 1 person out of 53 that will sell for less than $1000.
And more amazingly, we have greater than 50% who are hodling for > $10,000 coin.
Well, to be honest, I have used some BTC to buy gold before, that is why I submitted my post above re my change of HODLing plan. I may buy some Au at $500 (per BTC), then maybe some more at $650, etc. That would require me to keep BYUing BTC on the way up, but so what.
My wish is to balance my holdings between gold and BTC, obviously more US$ value of gold.
EDIT: My vote was >$1000, as I plan to use some BTC in my gold acquisition program.
April 26, 2016, 04:54:41 PM
I'm thinking of changing the poll now that we've got a big enough sample on this one to draw some conclusions.
It's actually really eye-opening, even though this poll is self-selecting for bitcoin afficianados being on this forum I would not have expected >95% are not selling until we are above $1000 !! That's pretty insane, (but I can agree with that sentiment). And I think the 2 votes for "Next $20 rise" are just trolls so that was my trap question to weed them out ... so in reality we have 1 person out of 53 that will sell for less than $1000.
And more amazingly, we have greater than 50% who are hodling for > $10,000 coin.
It's actually really eye-opening, even though this poll is self-selecting for bitcoin afficianados being on this forum I would not have expected >95% are not selling until we are above $1000 !! That's pretty insane, (but I can agree with that sentiment). And I think the 2 votes for "Next $20 rise" are just trolls so that was my trap question to weed them out ... so in reality we have 1 person out of 53 that will sell for less than $1000.
And more amazingly, we have greater than 50% who are hodling for > $10,000 coin.
April 26, 2016, 05:31:32 AM
At ~5-10K there might be some things I'd like to buy
April 25, 2016, 11:04:39 PM
...
I've changed my plan recently re BTC HODLings. If we get price spikes upward, I will sell some of my BTC for gold, piecemeal all the way up (whatever prices "up" reaches). But, I plan to maintain a decent speculative HODLing of BTC as a "lotto ticket".
My *guess* (worthless) is that BTC may get higher than it ATH this year or next, I do not see it reaching for the moon (Alice).
If I am wrong, however, well I'll be happy that I own at least some.
I've changed my plan recently re BTC HODLings. If we get price spikes upward, I will sell some of my BTC for gold, piecemeal all the way up (whatever prices "up" reaches). But, I plan to maintain a decent speculative HODLing of BTC as a "lotto ticket".
My *guess* (worthless) is that BTC may get higher than it ATH this year or next, I do not see it reaching for the moon (Alice).
If I am wrong, however, well I'll be happy that I own at least some.
April 25, 2016, 10:38:50 PM
Good, this is the type of thread we need. I've been following your posts for a long time -- we registered our accounts within a day of each other back in 2011. 
The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.
The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.
Hey keystroke, yeah I've noticed that elliptic curve plot avatar popping up as long as I can remember
Did you have a link to this spreadsheet you mention here?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/planning-your-bitcoin-withdrawals-326308
April 25, 2016, 10:33:26 PM
Good, this is the type of thread we need. I've been following your posts for a long time -- we registered our accounts within a day of each other back in 2011.
The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.
The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.
Hey keystroke, yeah I've noticed that elliptic curve plot avatar popping up as long as I can remember
Did you have a link to this spreadsheet you mention here?
April 24, 2016, 06:40:33 AM
we are all waiting for the history to repeat itself and price reaches $1100 again, so that is the target price of many bitcoin users.
and as a trader i would be lying if i said i wouldn't sell at that price too.
but also as a true believer in bitcoin and someone who is hodling i have to say i am waiting for prices a lot more than $1000 and believe that bitcoin has the potential to go to prices at least 5 times more that the last ATH.
and as a trader i would be lying if i said i wouldn't sell at that price too.
but also as a true believer in bitcoin and someone who is hodling i have to say i am waiting for prices a lot more than $1000 and believe that bitcoin has the potential to go to prices at least 5 times more that the last ATH.
April 24, 2016, 06:06:50 AM
Price in mind $5xxx per Bitcoin & I would be a happy man.
April 24, 2016, 03:36:39 AM
I found this thread interesting but the lack of foresight (and hindsight) was troubling.
1 bitcoin = 200k dollars
Can happen easily but will be difficult to predict when.
200k is ~450 times current valuation. 5 years ago bitcoin was around ~$1 ... so today's valuation is 450x that.
Also it doesn't take 450x the current number of individual bitcoin hodlers to adopt but 450x of existing value to adopt, e.g., the vast majority of the world's liquid wealth is held in very few hands. It does however have to support the inflation rate balancing with fresh value demand, at 12.5 per block (after halving) 200k/per btc is ~$360mio per day so probably not happening until at earliest 2 more halvings for a stable $200k valuation. For reference current value expansion of bitcoin wealth is ~$1.6million per day and price is relatively stable (appears to be undervalued even). The rate of new value entering bitcoin essentially sets the price, balancing with demand of value to leave into fiat. But value is an ephemeral, abstract concept that can change on the whim of the fickle human crowd mind so in the end difficult to predict when such an inverse Minsky moment of bitcoin may arrive.
1 bitcoin = 200k dollars
Can happen easily but will be difficult to predict when.
200k is ~450 times current valuation. 5 years ago bitcoin was around ~$1 ... so today's valuation is 450x that.
Also it doesn't take 450x the current number of individual bitcoin hodlers to adopt but 450x of existing value to adopt, e.g., the vast majority of the world's liquid wealth is held in very few hands. It does however have to support the inflation rate balancing with fresh value demand, at 12.5 per block (after halving) 200k/per btc is ~$360mio per day so probably not happening until at earliest 2 more halvings for a stable $200k valuation. For reference current value expansion of bitcoin wealth is ~$1.6million per day and price is relatively stable (appears to be undervalued even). The rate of new value entering bitcoin essentially sets the price, balancing with demand of value to leave into fiat. But value is an ephemeral, abstract concept that can change on the whim of the fickle human crowd mind so in the end difficult to predict when such an inverse Minsky moment of bitcoin may arrive.
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