if people want to work out mining costs
before june 2018 take the hashrate in exa and multiply it by 277(old gen asics cost)
after june 2018 take the hashrate in exa and multiply it by 135(current batch asics cost)
i know alot of people will have lots of different electricity costs but based on the main mining done by farms who can get the best deals(below 5c) then the important thing is the ones that can kep the costs down to have the lowest cost prices and thus more inclined to sell for less and still breakeven/profit.
oh and as for the next gen asics. take the exa predictions of october+ and multiply it by 65(next gen asics cost)
im hoping that by november once the next gen 7nm asics are released installed and mining. that the hashrate is above 90exa to counter the new gen rigs of that period to keep inline with the $5800 LOW/bottomline for 2018
Topic: Uncertainty of Bitcoin's Value - page 2. (Read 227 times)
We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
You should stop worrying about 'investors' abandoning Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin drops due to whales dumping, the price really won't stay down for ever. It is going to be a temporary blip, before the price recovers. If some people decide to shift to alternate investment vehicles, they really won't be missed by the Bitcoin community.
bitcoin value Vs price
imagine bitcoins price like a bathtub of water and bubbles.
the underlying waterline is the LOW/bottom price of btc over a period. this is the line people refuse to go below or they collectively drown.
this bottom line is made up of acquisition cost agreement, which is tested over time by those selling and reaching a low no one wants to cross
so lets deal with acquisitions costs. (i cant be assed to repeat myself so ill just quote myself)
as for the volatile stuff.. well the november-december 2017 was stir of the water to create lots of bubbles to make it appear the bath is more filled then it is. but it was not sustainable and once people started reacting to the bubble period. they all popped and corrected down to the waterline again
imagine bitcoins price like a bathtub of water and bubbles.
the underlying waterline is the LOW/bottom price of btc over a period. this is the line people refuse to go below or they collectively drown.
this bottom line is made up of acquisition cost agreement, which is tested over time by those selling and reaching a low no one wants to cross
so lets deal with acquisitions costs. (i cant be assed to repeat myself so ill just quote myself)
now here is why bitcoin wont go down
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
2. trading. since november 2017 and retested end of june 2018. no trader has sold below $5800. there has been 10 months of oppertunity for anyone who is happy to sell below $5800 to actually sell below $5800... no one has.
as for those that did sell at $5800 in november and june they sold, they are out they took their funds and left. the buyer of those coins now has a cost of $5800 and they wont stupidly sell for less.
3. looking at the UTXO data over 65% of coins have moved/changed hands since the $5,800 price point. and they have not sold below $5800. the other 35% are older coins. which some say could be lost keys, held in trust/for retirement. locked in bankrupcy legal blackholes(mtgox). so in short 2 thirds of the community dont want to sell for less because they have ben active enough to show they had oppertunity. but have not sold when they had the chance
4. so since the november and retested a few times. people with coins and mining coins have to a majority of over 65% collectively agreed they wont sell below $5800.
now lets imagine that the $5800 could be broken.
the idea is that of the 35% that didnt move/spend/sell even though their costs are below $5800 is because they:
have not checked the price for a year and didnt realise the price
lost their keys.
not ready to sell yet
now we all know that the 35% doesnt belong to one person. and if it was a group and they wanted to collectively collude. they would have done so already. they had many chances to group up.
but if one person had 5000btc to sell down the market volume of bitfinex to $5800 or 2000btc to sell down the market of GDAX. before they even get to sell their last coin. the market buyers wishing to buy over $5800 would be grabbing coins before 5800 and the price wont get to what the seller wants to push it down to, in short it would flash crash and then the buyers will see it as a discount opportunity and recover the price back up.
it would require alot of coins to tank the price and then perpetually keep it down to fight off the buyers who will be counteracting those efforts.
this worry is the whole thing about the "what if MTGox,, what if satoshi" .. well as i said earlier. they have had plenty of chances while the price is above $5800 to sell
but because 10 months of opportunity has shown no desire to do it and the mining costs show pools wont. id say thats a good case and percentage we wont see the bottom fall out of the market
so that explains the waterline (bottom line no one wants to crossacquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.
2. trading. since november 2017 and retested end of june 2018. no trader has sold below $5800. there has been 10 months of oppertunity for anyone who is happy to sell below $5800 to actually sell below $5800... no one has.
as for those that did sell at $5800 in november and june they sold, they are out they took their funds and left. the buyer of those coins now has a cost of $5800 and they wont stupidly sell for less.
3. looking at the UTXO data over 65% of coins have moved/changed hands since the $5,800 price point. and they have not sold below $5800. the other 35% are older coins. which some say could be lost keys, held in trust/for retirement. locked in bankrupcy legal blackholes(mtgox). so in short 2 thirds of the community dont want to sell for less because they have ben active enough to show they had oppertunity. but have not sold when they had the chance
4. so since the november and retested a few times. people with coins and mining coins have to a majority of over 65% collectively agreed they wont sell below $5800.
now lets imagine that the $5800 could be broken.
the idea is that of the 35% that didnt move/spend/sell even though their costs are below $5800 is because they:
have not checked the price for a year and didnt realise the price
lost their keys.
not ready to sell yet
now we all know that the 35% doesnt belong to one person. and if it was a group and they wanted to collectively collude. they would have done so already. they had many chances to group up.
but if one person had 5000btc to sell down the market volume of bitfinex to $5800 or 2000btc to sell down the market of GDAX. before they even get to sell their last coin. the market buyers wishing to buy over $5800 would be grabbing coins before 5800 and the price wont get to what the seller wants to push it down to, in short it would flash crash and then the buyers will see it as a discount opportunity and recover the price back up.
it would require alot of coins to tank the price and then perpetually keep it down to fight off the buyers who will be counteracting those efforts.
this worry is the whole thing about the "what if MTGox,, what if satoshi" .. well as i said earlier. they have had plenty of chances while the price is above $5800 to sell
but because 10 months of opportunity has shown no desire to do it and the mining costs show pools wont. id say thats a good case and percentage we wont see the bottom fall out of the market
as for the volatile stuff.. well the november-december 2017 was stir of the water to create lots of bubbles to make it appear the bath is more filled then it is. but it was not sustainable and once people started reacting to the bubble period. they all popped and corrected down to the waterline again
the majority of those buying in during the $4k-$20k were actually institutional money. buying up coins to settle up and buy coins to pay out a contracted tranche of funds to the devs for reaching their contractual duties of segwit by mid november.
We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
Because of the bulls manipulating the price, But even then I am sure the price will recover once they want a nice decent prifit for selling off their coins.
It has become a risk to have bitcoin, bitcoin can't increase every day and continue to increase, the market will continue to change based on the number of requests and offers. You must have the knowledge to gain profits in every market movement.
Poor bitcoin in the truest sense of the word is strangled from all sides.Until everything calms down and it will be left in its place for a very long time.Its cost is influenced by many factors other than the purchase.One of the main is its political uncertainty.As soon as it becomes clear to him at the level of the law.And I think that everything should be fine, because I see no reason for a different turn of events.The remaining bitcoins will be snapped up like hot cakes and the price will just skyrocket!!
We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
these are just natural market cycles. pull out a long term bitcoin price chart from 2010-2018, and switch it to logarithmic scale. you notice how it goes up and down over and over, but the long term trend continues upward?
you can think of that long term trend as the "mean." what happens during the bubble cycles is that buying demand skyrockets faster than supply can come to market. the price goes up "too far too fast." at the top of the bull cycle (in this case near $20k), there are usually very few buyers left, and the order books are thin. so price swings back down like a pendulum. then you enter a distribution cycle---a correction or downtrend---where early investors and traders need to take profits and exit the market, while late investors are trapped in losing positions. both groups pressure the price downward. we are "reverting to the mean" as stock traders call it, going back to the long term trend mentioned earlier.
Poor bitcoin in the truest sense of the word is strangled from all sides.Until everything calms down and it will be left in its place for a very long time.Its cost is influenced by many factors other than the purchase.One of the main is its political uncertainty.As soon as it becomes clear to him at the level of the law.And I think that everything should be fine, because I see no reason for a different turn of events.The remaining bitcoins will be snapped up like hot cakes and the price will just skyrocket!!
We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!
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