2007. The thought crossed my mind, IANAL, that a load of the criminality such
as that involved in banking, has a ten-year sell-by date. So maybe next
year Mr Sugarman is free and clear to tell more and be more specific about
the things that got him fired, without it coming back to bite him.
Similar dates for Lehman Brothers and for WAMU, AIG, et al, cannot be too far
off in the future, so maybe a quick tour to refresh the old grey cells might
be timely. It's big, so, I'll condense it around Lehman Brothers.
Lehman priced real estate bets on the assumption of a five percent rise each and
every year. Not a problem if everyone else does the same, and nobody figures
out that the risks are way above what they should be. Similarly, the law is
written to ensure that when bankruptcy happens, creditors are made good and
equity at worst, gets wiped out. But when you have $600Bn+ of debt and $40Bn+ of
equity, margins of error are kinda slim, and repoin' ridiculous amounts (~$50Bn)
doesn't help, resulting in a leverage of just under 30. They might have got
away with it in different circumstances, but that's not the way things fell.
When bankruptcy happens, the governments gets first bite followed by the senior
debt holders. Stuff get sold off, usually at the worst possible time, and
in Lehman's case, some went for as little as eight cents on the dollar vs book.
When billions are involved, that's a huge haircut. The buyers, including
RBS and JP Morgan, didn't immediately show a huge profit, so there's another
story there. When the smoke and mirrors were cleared away, there were a
pile of claims totalling $300+Bn, and much less than $100Bn on paper to make
the creditors and equity good. [1]
Around that time questions were asked.
About where the ~$250Bn went? ... Noooo.
"Where did it all go wrong" and some time and more money later "Don't Know" in
about 900 pages. America has a strange financial system. According to
Mr Corzine money gets "vaporized". Shades of Mr Krugman's Aliens. Maybe he
hopes "Mars Attacks" .... ZAP .... VaporiZed!!! happens all the time to debt
in the USA, it's only we aliens (foreigners) take any notice of such mundane matters.
This is, of course sarcasm, as evidenced by what happens when "their"
money might be at risk.[2] [3]
Ten years on, is it "fixed"? - no.
Is it better or worse? - it is worse, the debt and the US banks are bigger.
That's enough for now.
[1] By way of example, see Deutsche Bank AG's claim 27141 against Lehman Brothers
for $2,494,729,944.42, one of several claims by Deutsche Bank. Almost all of these
outstanding monies in unsecured loans were owed to financial entities. The latest
payout on unsecured claims brings their total to something like one quarter of
face value. Exogenous money has a quaint habit of returning whence it came.
[2] WAMU Opinion 7 January 2011 p57 "The Plan Supporters argue that even
collection against JPMC [JPMorganChase] for claims the debtors have against
it is not assured." The Judge agreed "... bank deposits (especially in the
amount of $4 billion) may not be easily collectible without resulting in another
bank collapse."
[3] Leniency seems to be a one-way street.
https://thinkprogress.org/steve-mnuchin-onewest-e5fc28e0f285"By 2015, OneWest had foreclosed on 36,000 homes, according to a nonprofit
called the California Reinvestment Coalition (CRC), which tracked the bank's
activities."