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Topic: U.S. Debt Default Bullish for Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 6415 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
September 30, 2013, 09:22:23 PM
#12
Debt defaults and bankruptcies are bullish for fiat currencies as these events make fiat more scarce (deflation).

This isn't true when it is the  issuing government (as opposed to a private bank) defaulting. It undermines trust in said government which sort of renders the entire currency meaningless.

It is the opposite.
This stalemate is good for the dollar because it shows that a number of politicians are serious about reining in spending. The USG will stop entitlement spending before it stops bond redemptions at maturity and interest payments.  The equity markets are high in recent years only because of money printing. People think that markets crashing because of the stalemate is "bad" whereas it is a pricing in of the necessary economic (painful) medicine which needs to be taken now instead of an (agonizing) Zimbabwe-like currency collapse taken later.


Once in a blue moon you people need to abandon your weird-ass views and  think logically.

The ONLY basis for the  worth placed in the USD is the faith in the US Government.
A default of the US Government undermines faith in the USG, therefore harming the USD.

The USG owed value to two people: People who own their currency, backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government, and people who own their bonds, also backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. If they default on their bonds then clearly the full faith and credit of the US Government is useless, rendering the dollar worthless.

According to your twisted logic, a person's credit rating should go UP when they declare bankruptcy since they now have fewer obligations and thus have more capacity to pay you.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
September 30, 2013, 09:16:11 PM
#11
Debt defaults and bankruptcies are bullish for fiat currencies as these events make fiat more scarce (deflation).

This isn't true when it is the  issuing government (as opposed to a private bank) defaulting. It undermines trust in said government which sort of renders the entire currency meaningless.

It is the opposite.
This stalemate is good for the dollar because it shows that a number of politicians are serious about reining in spending. The USG will stop entitlement spending before it stops bond redemptions at maturity and interest payments.  The equity markets are high in recent years only because of money printing. People think that markets crashing because of the stalemate is "bad" whereas it is a pricing in of the necessary economic (painful) medicine which needs to be taken now instead of an (agonizing) Zimbabwe-like currency collapse taken later.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
September 30, 2013, 09:14:46 PM
#10
World events are only bullish for Bitcoin, if the Bitcoin community convinces itself it's bullish and drives up the price on their own manufactured belief, that world events actually affect Bitcoin.   Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
September 30, 2013, 09:08:34 PM
#9
Debt defaults and bankruptcies are bullish for fiat currencies as these events make fiat more scarce (deflation).

This isn't true when it is the  issuing government (as opposed to a private bank) defaulting. It undermines trust in said government which sort of renders the entire currency meaningless.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
September 30, 2013, 09:04:22 PM
#8
Debt defaults and bankruptcies are bullish for fiat currencies as these events make fiat more scarce (deflation). If you think about it a fiat currency system can work indefinitely where balanced sovereign budgets are run, corporate and bank bankruptcy is allowed to happen, fractional lending limits and money printing are constrained to real gdp growth, underpinned by real, not massaged statistics.

Of course all the of the above happens in Fiat Fairy Land where unicorns give rides to children and every grown-up still gets government freebies forever.

In the real world it is when obscene levels of credit creation occur, obscenely bankrupt banks and companies are bailed out by obscenely indebted governments using central banks to print obscene amounts of fiat. All of this is bullish for Bitcoin and brings forward the collapse of the fiat systems.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
September 30, 2013, 09:01:27 PM
#7
Bitcoin on its own given our current broken financial system....is bullish.

Debt default has little or nothing to do with it.
full member
Activity: 148
Merit: 100
September 30, 2013, 08:55:47 PM
#6
I was wondering about this as well.  The default is due for tomorrow. While everyone expects them to work out a deal, who knows.  The couple of hundred of people who hold power may have more to gain personally by defaulting the whole country than then care for every other American.

If this happens then I would expect an overnight boost in Bitcoin's USD price. No question.  Though it would be a small, steady and gradual boost... not a big spike.

Partial gov't shutdown is tomorrow.  The real event to watch for is the debt ceiling limit increase.  If that doesn't happen then default is a possibility but I don't think it will happen.  We will know in two weeks™ when the deadline that the treasury secretary gave actually arrives.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
September 30, 2013, 08:33:09 PM
#5
It seems as if its clearly bullish for Bitcoin just as much as the Cyprus pseudo-default was, only, like, a thousand times bigger.

The more reasons people have to (A) not want to be affected by inflation (B) want to avoid confiscation of wealth and (C) want to transfer wealth around the world quickly/anonymously, the more Bitcoin will be worth. A US default has the capacity to trigger more of both (A) and (B), so clearly it would help the price of Bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1045
September 30, 2013, 08:26:30 PM
#4
Non-factor.
+1
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1018
Buzz App - Spin wheel, farm rewards
September 30, 2013, 08:23:54 PM
#3
I was wondering about this as well.  The default is due for tomorrow. While everyone expects them to work out a deal, who knows.  The couple of hundred of people who hold power may have more to gain personally by defaulting the whole country than then care for every other American.

If this happens then I would expect an overnight boost in Bitcoin's USD price. No question.  Though it would be a small, steady and gradual boost... not a big spike.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
September 30, 2013, 03:51:55 PM
#2
They will redefine the dollar before they will default.
full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
September 30, 2013, 03:35:26 PM
#1
On the off-chance the U.S. defaults and triggers a meltdown of the global financial system, wouldn't this be bullish for bitcoin because large amounts of capital will be desperately looking for an alternative financial infrastructure that can operate independently of the banking system?
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