Topic: US economy wouldn't be shut down again despite the rising case count - page 2. (Read 873 times)

Two days after the Treasury Secretary said this, multiple US states are pausing reopening plans, with local officials warning that new stay-at-home orders may be coming: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/12/states-cities-pause-reopening-coronavirus-infections-rise-315720

Bears will have a field day if full blown lockdowns return. If last week's stock market dump is any indication, BTC will follow too.

I doubt they require to shut down if its been as ineffective as I think, the better idea is to make sure people keep a distance.   This also seems to be failing in many cases, people fail to grasp the idea of not spreading something which has no real cure.    Theres way too much debt for a shutdown so I pretty much too late its been botched, best solution now is to adapt and restrain close contact.   That means some business cannot throw 20 people into a small room any more, space will be a premium and it'll get worse in the winter when people cant use the warm out doors so much in every state.
   I've still not heard about containtment of the worst outbreaks, thats the alternate I expect where roads in and out of towns are shut and people warned to reduce contact.  To me that sounds reasonable, we still have bubonic plague and rabies as lethal naturally occuring disease and this virus spreads more quickly to some extent.  Control is always an option required where the risk in an area is high.

Is there a new normal term in America?

In my country the government imposes new normal. The government opened quarantine and started to revive the economy by opening shopping centers and markets even though the number of corona sufferers continued to increase even before reaching the culmination point. Lockdown is enough to educate the brain and people's behavior in dealing with corona in the hope of creating new habits (safe and secure in a corona pandemic). So the economy can begin to be driven despite many limitations. This is because the government realizes that the longer the economy stops the harder it is to push it back up.



Indeed the infrastructure development sector is still a megaproject that can bring many industries and supporting services to life. It's just that in the present conditions with a budget deficit, infrastructure projects cannot be a solution.

In addition to thinking about the current conditions, especially large companies that mass dismissals, the government must also answer the continued challenge that many industries are trying to increase productivity with artificial technology and artificial intelligence which will certainly increase unemployment.

So the government must be keen to develop businesses that are easily developed and absorb a lot of labor. In my country, small and medium businesses are the sectors that absorb the most workforce, so leading small and medium businesses that have good prospects and use local products can be scaled up by expanding branches and combined with integrated digital platforms ranging from logistics, distribution, stock, systems communication, payment, etc.

infrastructure---road, bridge, etc building. that's a classic job creation stimulus technique that trump has shown great fondness for. e-commerce (amazon and other online shopping + delivery venues) is always growing fast in these times. the government could find ways to incentivize large scale e-commerce employers to expand their payrolls.


it's already happening. the rise in cases seems to be worst in states that reopened early. in some places this can be blamed on more testing, but in others hospitalizations and deaths are clearly rising which is quite worrisome. https://apnews.com/feb4c26d9364497cf82ee7c0c1b1b3d5

We are already counting a huge economic recession for 2020.
I don't think that any economy is going to close again during this year because this would mean a global collapse. Especially economies like US or Chinese cannot be shut down for the global good.

This is not a lie. We are in a situation where we have to choose between closing down the economy and staying indoors or going outside and facing the risk of Covid-19. Seriously, people can’t stay indoors, it’s not possible because first they need to earn money so they need to go out and even if the have some saving then also they need to go out at least for buying vegetable and milk and ect.

In my country we have tried the lockdown for more than a month and things keeps getting worse; the economy is falling and people are still getting infected and number running up despite the lockdown, so it doesn’t make any sense. It is best that we all go outside and face it. They need to open up the economy and people can look for ways to stay safe and that’s it. God is going to help the world in this tough situation.

Electrions are coming soon and Trump really doesn't want to have them during a deep recession and unemployment crisis. There probably will be some attempts to cover up the coronavirus death toll in the US to make it look like things are under control.

My country recently stopped our quarantine, and a week after that new cases and deaths are at all time high, and it's quite worrying. The same might happen with the US.

The current economical situation all around the world is not doing that well at all, I doubt people from USA would even argue about opening back up even if the cases are getting higher and higher. I personally would love to see it shutdown because that way you would have a lot less people dying, but we have to be realistic, if you close and lockdown everyone once again for few more months, you are going to have people die of starvation and an economical situation that is irreversible.

So, at one hand you have people dying right now which is horrible but after a while recovering and going back to normal, on the other hand you have less people dying at first which is great but having an economical situation where people will never recover from it and at the end people would start to die and you can't stop that one.

The problem is what sector that will create a massive job that you have describe? Every industry has been affected, and to get the economy moving again, business should open. But with the social distancing, I don't think that the economy will create more jobs.

So it's going to be a slow process in the US and we don't expect a recovery for this year. And there's also the possibility of second wave of pandemic, so very difficult situation not just for US economy but globally.

Well, considering the US unemployment rates also reduced in the US last month, shutting down economy won't do any good. Also because, even if they do shut down, people will still protest/go out and not listen to their government. Classic 'Murica.

As for my expectations for Q3 and Q4, i want to say its going to be comparatively better than Q1 and Q2, for sure. But it could be a total miss, given everything happening in the US right now. If the protests don't end, or if another catastrophe is to strike, I am afraid that things won't be as good as we want them to be.

the same logic that brought the lockdowns in the first place: an exponential rise in cases can lead to the health care system being overrun. at that point, non-coronavirus urgent care will become neglected, leading to a much higher death toll than the epidemic would cause alone.

Coronavirus is a hoax.
Stop falling for commie lies.

Why would they shut it down? It is a political thing and right now republicans are controlling the senate and they have a republican and crazy president. You would think health is a bipartisan thing but unfortunately it is not. Look at outside in USA, in anywhere you go people who are arguing against masks are people who would vote for Trump, people who are protesting lockdowns are all who would vote for trump. Is democrats are any different?

Practically speaking they are not, George Floyd has been murdered by a cop and it is definitely something to riot and protest about in any other normal period and I agree with them, however right now there is a pandemic yet they are out protesting very close to each other. Yet when you tell them there is a risk at least they do believe you instead of calling the virus a fraud.

That is also a bit factor I had in mind. I don't know if the recession (if there is any) will hit as hard as it did in 2008, but if it does during Trump's presidency, it will be very difficult for him to be re-elected. I just don't hope he pushes to much money into the system, because at the end the tax payer will probably have to pay the bill...

For what I can see we're still very far away from seeing the full effects of the economic crisis that is coming, the coronavirus whether we like it or not has shifted the priorities of people and this is not going to change just because the government lifted the lockdown, many sectors are going to be deeply affected by this change in the priorities of people, even if people want to return to normal as soon as possible in the back of their minds they know that is not true, the virus is still with us and all the people that lost their jobs are not going to get them back that easily, so I really expect that the next two quarters are going to be even more negative not only for the economy of the United States but the world in general.

Yes, the current administration is doing everything to delay the recession as this is the high time for elections and Trump doesn't want this kind of blunder on his side as this will destroy his chances of getting elected again and the opposition will surely win without any difficulties at all. So it will be best for him to avoid this defeat by postponing the recession and will deal with it after the elections. But another shutdown will be the final nail in his coffin as a lot of people are already pissed after the first lockdown and still there isn't any control on the spread of COVID till now.

In my opinion the fallbacks due to the virus are going to happen no matter what. If a country chooses to apply a strict lockdown, the virus will be an annoyance for several months, while a country with little rules on lockdown will accomplish herd immunity faster. The only people that should really have been in quarantine were the older and at risk people. I don't think society will benefit much by quarantining healthy people.

But I'm no scientist on this topic 

US economy is really affected and they are struggling right now, do you think that they can recover that fast? Being shut down economically is not a surprise for them because they underestimated the struggle and tragedy that this virus can do to us. For me, IMO, the US government is not that responsible enough especially the President.

They will not experience this kind of huge increase in cases if he warned all of his citizen before the Covid-19 entered their country. Right now, they are suffering economically because of the lockdown, they just make this pandemic worse for them.

Hopefully they can recover from that recession and people use cryptocurrency in transactions so that the money circulates to the market.

Placing any restrictions on who can work during a time when you're trying to encourage people to work seems counter-productive.

Also, I'm not sure that would be very practical to implement.  If you only allow one worker per household, what would you do with a couple if they both worked as doctors, for example?  Are you going to tell one of those doctors that they can't save lives during a pandemic?

More people should be equipped to work from home where possible.  Those who have to work in a place that need to deal with people in person should be provided with all the necessary protective equipment to keep them safe and distance should be maintained wherever possible.  Most countries are getting it right, but the US and UK in particular have handled it abysmally.  It's only natural that their economies are being hit harder than others as a result.

@hugeblack the key reason that they’re not keen on extending the lockdown is, because of the current state of the US economy which has remained neutral despite several economic activities opening up.

Furthermore the US labor department yesterday announced that another 1.5 million people, have filed their claims for unemployment benefits, and this is another reason why the lawmakers are not keen on extending the lockdown.

Lastly Jerome Powell chair of the Federal Reserve has claimed that people will find it very difficult to get meaningful employment opportunities, hence the lawmakers are trying to keep the economy open, otherwise people won’t be able to find job opportunities, and they’ll continue to remain unemployed which will further hurt the US economy.




Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/11/us-economy-unemployment-us-states

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-reopen-analysis/a-month-into-reopening-no-clear-turn-for-u-s-economy-or-pandemic-idUSKBN23I303