Topic: U.S. Recession short term - page 2. (Read 345 times)

Historically expecting this financial crisis is much worse because of the unlimited quantitative easing and 0 interest rates and with $1200 bailout. The fed is really out of control and the oil with its decreasing supply and the pandamic making it much worse.
This are all fuels for the Bitcoin price, there will be time that people will lose confidence in cash.

Will be? It is literally in recession right now, USA will not recover from this all that easily because they are using the tax payers money to baloon up the stock prices that eventually goes down whenever something bad happens and they are left with nothing.

All that trillions of dollars tax cuts to companies in return of "bettering the economy" all went up in smokes, the idea was simply give the huge companies a tax break so that they would use that to get bigger and bigger and get more profits and hire more people because they would be getting bigger. Well, what happened? Those companies used those tax cuts to pay the CEO a lot of money and they used it to give shareholders a bigger return and whenever something bad like this happened it went back to zero and had to start all over again.

I am not saying government has no fault neither, companies are known to make these shady stuff, government should have used it for something else instead.

We're even seeing WW2-style corporate repurposing, with private factories switching to manufacturing medical and other essential supplies: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/21/business/bc-us-virus-outbreak-repurposing-factories.html

Governments are also eyeing idle hotels as potential hospital sites. The whole thing is like a hybrid between the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and WW2, minus the war part.

I'm amazed at the resilience of stock markets in the face of 3.3 million American jobless claims. I had been predicting a relief rally but I had almost stopped believing it could actually happen! I don't expect this exuberance to last for too long.

When the Dow Jones will be around 14500 it will have lost 50% of its value since the peak in February

We can definitely reach there during April

the wall street journal just declared an end to the bear market: https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1243267094852055041


something tells me this prediction will not age well. if that was the shortest bear market ever, then this bounce will probably be the shortest bull market ever too.

I think it will last between 10 and 16 months, just guesstimate because of history. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp

The current situation is like a war, where the US lost thousands life, spend a lot of money to fight the enemy, provide medications to the survivors, etc. I'm not saying the death count because of this virus would be thousands though.

As per my calculation, this currently recession is not a long one! The entire world is facing it, so do US! The moment we are out of this COVID-19 situation, the market is going to see a huge uptrend.

My analysis:
Majority of the markets are closed due to the current situation - people aren't going out to buy mobile or car, companies have stopped producing of all sorts of luxury or even regular items so millions of people lost their jobs! And such things are hitting insurance sector and mortgage banking sector real hard. But this is a temporary situation.

As soon as this virus is controlled, production companies will open up who are mainly the mass recruiters. As soon as the market opens, it will start creating demands in the market. People will get jobs and move out from their sabbatical situation.

It's a chain and it will fall in place soon after the market opens up. It will definitely not be another 2008. World is now more prepared to handle such situation.

If you have money, go invest in stocks of big companies who are hit by this virus. It could be a dream come true for you!

Each recession to one degree or another is not similar to the previous one.
As a rule, the stronger the economic ties between countries have grown, the more these countries are dependent on each other,
which means that a sharp break in such ties can easily lead to disastrous consequences for the economy.

The 2008-2009 crisis was actually a financial crisis. Starting and growing in the financial sector, then it spreads to the real sector because of the blocked access to finance. In contrast to 2008-2009, the coronavirus is a phenomenon in the real sector that is creeping into the financial sector. The impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 is very different from the impact of the coronavirus.

The 2008 global financial crisis was purely an economic phenomenon. The reason is the explosion of bad loans in the property sector (sub-prime mortgage) which turned out to involve many systemic institutions. So 2008 contagion came from financial institutions, especially from banks, capital markets because there was a sentiment which then influenced stability. Whereas Corona directly hits the real sector because it involves the problem of people who don't dare to do mobility, don't do activities, so that it affects the real sector, investment, manufacturing.

The biggest impact of the corona to the financial sector is through interest rates, exchange rates, non-performing loans (NPLs) or problem loans, psychological sentiments, and the state budget because the government needs to provide fiscal stimulus amid this economic pressure. What is happening now is the panic of all global financial market players and capital owners due to the rapid spread of the virus to various countries, this makes global investors release financial assets in various forms on global financial markets and a number of countries. Starting from stocks, bonds, and others. They sell it in the form of US dollar cash, so there is a strengthening of the US dollar on the financial market.

Whereas the recovery for the corona outbreak will not be as heavy as the 2008 crisis which took almost 7 years because the US only raised its benchmark interest rate at the end of 2015. Seeing from the pandemic in China it should be in 2021, the economy has accelerated again.

1.The time frame of the recession depends of the way USA fights the pandemic.Lockdowns,mass testing,preparation of the hospitals and the production and delivery of protective clothes,masks,purell,etc.
2.Oil prices can go up,if the USA reduces oil production.Countries like Russia won't survive low oil prices as well,so they might reduce oil prices too.
3.The 2 trillion dollar stimulus plan is crucial for fighting the recession,but I don't think that 2 trillion is enough.
4.China's export will be hit by a global recession.That's why China has to help the world now.

This recession will have a big impact on the deciding factor whether the US economy will head to a long recession or a short one, China is making a good move, I commend that because for me that is how you play politics, you make a good decision out of the bad situation.

I think this crash better parallels 1987 than 2008 but it's not because of the policies mounted in response. Trump and Obama's stimulus policies are almost exactly the same. It's a matter of circumstance. 2008 resulted from systemic failures, not an external catalyst like 2020.


Pretty much everyone who makes < $99,000 a year and has a Social Security number will get a check. Even Social Security beneficiaries who already get government checks will get one. The expansion of unemployment benefits is a separate thing. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/congress-to-send-taxpayers-1200-checks-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus.html

Reagan and Trump's policies are very similar, with both utilizing tax cuts in an effort to incentivize investment and growth. Trump's approach to finance and economics are near polar opposite to Obama's in 2008.  If we see a recovery, with Trump as President. It will more closely resemble the 1987 recovery, when Reagan was President.

-Oil's decreasing value is based on reduced demand. Global transportation and shipping being on steep declines. Demand will pick up if circumstances return to normal.

-Not everyone receives the $1200. Only recently unemployed workers afaik.

-It seems some of the federal reserve's bailouts are finding their way into chinese markets. Its the only thing that explains chinese stocks doing so well.

You know, sometimes I think we should have also a shale gas obituary, just like we have with bitcoin.
I've heard so many times that the shale sector is going to die that I'm actually bored of it, it has died in 2014, in 2016 in 2018...but it seems it's more resistant that this damn virus.
And even if the price forces companies to stop drilling once the prices go up there will be more drillers again, even so shale gas alone won't trigger a recession, cheap gas prices have always helped Americans, what is going to affect us all is the economic slowdown caused by this coronacrap.


And seriously, whoever thinks that this is good for us, let's cheer for BTC!!! needs to follow Jimmy Hoffa.
Around here (Europe) things are still calm but companies are slowly reducing staff, commerce is down, two-car factories shut down, for a while there will be money, in the long run, god knows...and no...this won't be god for bitcoin. It won't be good for the dollar, for the yen for anybody
If the US enters a recession everybody will follow, from China to Argentina and Iceland to New Zeeland, and the worst hit will be those that can't afford to pay even a 1sat tx, let alone buy some bitcoins.

Yep, I've been saying this for a while. Everyone seems to expect a 2008-2009 repeat or worse. They are assuming the most catastrophic pandemic models are correct. There is still the possibility of a 1987-like crash, especially if this study turns out correct, as it will completely change the economic outlook.

These are in fact the exact price levels to bounce from (~ 35% crash) to keep that model intact.


Unemployment numbers are going to be scary. I expect the market to tumble when the latest BLS data comes out in a couple days.


Half of that stimulus package will be used to bail out companies. The Trump administration also indicated there is another $4 trillion in spending coming on top of this package.

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.