Topic: Vague similarities... - page 2. (Read 4263 times)

The million dollar question … Literally.

A problem with 455 is that it's a mere 63% off the top, and it was no particularly high volume either. But, purely from the changed look of the chart because of the uptrend from 455, it looks unlike 2011. While that doesn't necessarily mean it can't play out similarly or even worse regardless, I think there's at least as good an argument to be made for a larger triangle/sideways move that will take months to conclude, and thus, a bottom higher than 455.

In any case, Bitcoin has fundamentally become a dangerous game because miners have had such large marginal profits for an unprecedented amount of time. Here's the chart I watch for that. Just ignore the pre-ASIC period and the y axis labelings, the only thing that matters is the relative trend here. New lows in margin profits mean higher and higher pressure on miners, and eventually, they will have to sell nearly all of the daily supply, of which I suspect, unlike any real world mining market, a large part has been withheld from the market until now.
We are speculators. If we even get a whiff of this, we bail and force them to sell an even larger percentage because of the decreased price. It's a positive feedback loop of nightmarish proportion, and it is what happened in 2011. The difficulty even began to decrease because it became unprofitable – something I don't expect to happen with ASICs because they can only do SHA256, but I do expect the difficulty growth to decrease extremely, and that could be a hint for investors.

Nobody said "price can do whatever it wants". I simply said, from post one, "this is not serious TA, but eyeballing charts". I post more seriously in other threads, but consolidation times like this can be frustrating.

There's something amusing about your insistence to point out that my OP is baseless speculation: this subforum is *full* of baseless speculation why we're about to go TO DA MOON, usually with no such thing as a disclaimer that's it's speculation rather than TA. Maybe some bias there, after all?

Oh well, never mind. Join the tea leaf reading group or don't.

* * *

How do we feel about the single (high volume) bottom so far? I never quite made up my mind if we actually found support (at a level based on some less obvious trend, perhaps) on Dec. 18, or if we're in for another re-test of a capitulation bottom?

I wouldn't dismiss "eyeballing" certain segments of Bitcoin's history and comparing it to past ones. Since the psychology in Bitcoin always works the same, certain patterns emerge that repeat themselves. 1093 certainly has the potential to be what 166 was last year.

Noone serious would say such nonsense. And like it or not, the charts do lead the sentiment because sentiment is influenced by the booms and busts. Sentiment is at its worst at the very bottom and highest at the top. It is very easy to track this, just look at the way the hype works (there are many metrics, like Google trends, Wikipedia hits, client downloads, etc.) and how it dies down … it is a lagging indicator.

Interesting to hear this from you. Regarding this triangle, what gives you the impression of a bullish bias?

You know I wish some TA analysts (not necessarily OP) would remember this - TA is a tool to estimate sentiment. It is not the other way around - sentiment should not bend to the will of TA. For example I've seen analysts write about hodling as if it is some kind of cheating - not fair because it might skew TA. But it is the job of the analyst to factor hodling into their estimate, not for hodlers to conform to the analyst's personal estimates!

You know that technical analysis is a useful tool to estimate sentiment. This here is not even trying, though. I agree that we approach a triangle tip. It might go both ways from there.

oda, that's what happens when you even dare suggest that Bitcoin could maybe possibly decrease in value in the short and medium term. Bitcoin cultists to the rescue. Price graphs are useless, technical analysis is a distraction.

Well, guess who did … I didn't achieve this by listening to the fiat cultists at the time, and I will certainly not achieve to protect myself like I have done in the past by listening to Bitcoin cultists.

On the topic: We are in a clear triangle now, and we are nearing its end. 880 and 1022 on MtGox are its last borders as I see it.

Adding "but bitcoin price can do whatever it wants" does not make the prior analysis less silly.

vs.


or



Reading is hard. Let's go shopping!

You are as blind in that assumption as you are blind in looking at the graphs, i.e. a complete miss. I could not care less to actually get "unbalanced" by your pattern observations, just pointed out a fact that a coin toss would result in a much better prediction power than your TA. If you want to present a bearish point of view, you should try harder, your reasoning at the moment is even less credible than proudhon's "sources" or somebody else's dream, definitely much less funny since you seem to actually believe the gibberish that you post.

PS and btw, I'm not saying that bitcoin is positioned to go higher now, that would be a silly guess. From TA point of view, the current situation is bearish, but definitely not for the "reasons" that you posted. From the fundamentals, the price should be rising. So while we are waiting for some actual movements to start, I can't pass responding to a silly troll thread like yours one here.

Yes funny this is my second account, I lost access to my first one when I changed e-mail/lost password.

And yes I've been following Bitcoin every day for over 3 years. There is no doubt there was lots of rubbish information but I never believed the hype. The hype in 2011 is nothing compared to today. Today we have companies like Overstock taking Bitcoin, Paypal are talking about it. In 2014 Amazon might well accept it. This is not 2011.

And it's interesting that you refer to the past bitcoin price to justify your position today yet you fail to remember that anyone investing in 2011 would be a rich man today.

Im not really trying to see any similarity's. Id say, watch the news and make sure you don't see a similarity when its already to late.

You have your account since 2011, did you not see how new services, users, companies flocked to Bitcoin all the time while the price first collapsed and later on stagnated for a long time? It did nothing. Prices are a collective mass delusion and its ebbs and flows are very loosely linked to reality.

After the April 2013 crash, guys were thinking it was a replay of the 2011 crash.  It wasn't.  As you said, that would be too easy.

Hahaha, I finally start understanding what motivates guys like Blitz and ElectricMucus... Hey, two posters above me, your bull tears are absolutely delicious :3

Seriously though, go re-examine your life. If you can't stomach some bearish (and admitted from post one: non-rigorous) speculation on the specu-fucking-lation subforum then you're obviously more than just a bit imbalanced*



* by which I mean you probably didn't take out your initial investment yet, and it shows. Oh, how it shows.

Stop looking at the fucking graphs seriously.

Open your eyes to the world around you. Thousands upon thousands of companies, investors, individuals are getting into Bitcoin since the recent price rise.

Companies around the world are starting to accept bitcoin. New services are coming online all the time. This is an ATH of Bitcoin awareness and it's increasing every day.

Stop thinking about 2 months, 3 months, this is the beginning of mass adoption and acceptance. 2014 is going to be the year that launches Bitcoin into the mainstream.

You guys are grasping for straws. No really, you are. Take any part of any scale graph of anything and it would be "similar", it will have ups, downs, green and red candles, that's about all of the similarities that you consider substantial enough to base some deductions upon.

Really, tossing a coin would be much more scientific. So just do that. You can toss any number of times until the outcome would be bearish (i.e. 1 more heads than tails), that would be a certain sign of an incoming doom.

Nice observation. I mean, it's all rather uninformative eyeballing, but your eyeballing was slightly less uninformative than mine :P

Bears make awesome rugs.

Exactly my thoughts. if you are buy and hold till $100,000 then non of this really matters. But we all know we are here to get ass many coin ass possible. Theres always going to be 50% drops  in BTC its rare but if you are patient, Just set your buy order accordingly and go on with life. Chances are your order will be filled within 6 months and now you have double the  amount of BTC for when it actually does hit $100,000 you can look back and laugh at being twise as rich by just buying off the 30 week EMA.

DOnt get greed and expect a 1000 to 100 drop just set it at half and let it trail , It will eventually get filled