Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis | Bitcointalksearch.org

DecentralizeEconomics

legendary

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White Male Libertarian Bro

Quote from: MatTheCat on January 20, 2015, 08:34:28 AM

Bitcoin has actually overshot DanV's most dire forecasts.

The price can temporarily overshoot the resistance / support levels in TA and the forecast can still be considered accurate as long as the price quickly comes back to the resistance / support level. Imo, the temporary low of $150 doesn't invalidate the ~$200 support level.

tadakaluri

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When will this bearish trend over?

MatTheCat

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Quote from: Ibian on April 27, 2014, 08:59:41 PM

Why are people still questioning this? The price goes up in huge jumps. Minor changes between those jumps are meaningless in the bigger picture. For permabears to be taken seriously they would first have to explain why "this time it's different" without appearing to be blatantly trolling. And they can't do that.

This time it was different. You can't argue with that now and it is probably going to get even more different as Bitcoin has actually overshot DanV's most dire forecasts.

homo homini lupus

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Quote from: prophetx on January 19, 2015, 04:42:29 PM

good job OP

good bump, bumper Wink

TeeBone

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Quote from: JimboToronto on May 25, 2014, 02:01:42 AM

Quote from: Arghhh on May 25, 2014, 01:43:10 AM

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules

Post of the day.

2 cult trolls feeling awfully stoopid.

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

good job OP

Arghhh

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Your chart is wrong because there shouldn't be stars inside of the moon crescent. Wink

blatchcorn

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Another no-bullshit chart:

JimboToronto

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You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: Arghhh on May 25, 2014, 01:43:10 AM

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules

Post of the day.

blatchcorn

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For everyone who wants a simple analysis:

It is clear we are now in a bull market. The days of $400 bitcoin are over

Arghhh

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Quote from: chessnut on May 25, 2014, 01:09:37 AM

The guy is not a bad EW analyst, but he is a slave to some trivial rules. if you know EW analysis, he has chosen the most complex interpretation of this chart, it hardly makes sense at all. there is a much simpler explanation to all this, and it's very bullish.

Truth is though, this could be a B wave within a much larger ABC correction (less likely than the beginning of V to 4000), but he labels the top of this to 600? rubbish analysis. The likely top in this situation is more like 800.

The real rubbish analysis is actually him even mentioning $200 and $120... just three days ago. The guy has trading experience, but his bitcoin fundamentals is absolute garbage.

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules... never before has a stock been a currency, a payment system, and a limited commodity at the same time.

Remember that in October 2013, he called for long-term downtrend to $60.

Needless to say, anyone who listened to him then, probably needs to step outside from a 22nd story building.

chessnut

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The guy is not a bad EW analyst, but he is a slave to some trivial rules. if you know EW analysis, he has chosen the most complex interpretation of this chart, it hardly makes sense at all. there is a much simpler explanation to all this, and it's very bullish.

Truth is though, this could be a B wave within a much larger ABC correction (less likely than the beginning of V to 4000), but he labels the top of this to 600? rubbish analysis. The likely top in this situation is more like 800.

Dont take an EW analyst for 100% certain no matter how 'qualified'. EW analysts have very detailed expectations, which means we can enter and exit the market seamlessly and mechanically, however just like everyone else we cannot tell the future for sure.

Arghhh

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DanV: Former Qualified Financial Adviser. Part-Time Forex, Equities & Option Trader and Mentor.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/

"This pattern could have a final leg down, which would very likely induce overwhelming emotions of despair as it sinks to the ~$200 level.

Again, the $200 zone is AB=CD measured move target and another Fib confluence. As you all know, I am relatively cautious and, hence, $200 would be good enough for me. However, EW guidelines suggest that upon completion of a bullish cycle, the retracement takes us back to the vicinity of wave 4 (at one cycle degree lower). That, in fact, is in the area of $120!

Now, I know this might be very annoying and incomprehensible to Bulls, and others who follow "Fundamentals" very keenly. I cannot say right now which of these targets will be achieved, but it is sufficient to note that, irrespective of if we reverse at $600 (or even $800), we are in a bearish cycle, and a move of the low does not support a new Bullish cycle." -DanV

Another institutional analyst falls victim to the bitcoin badger.
Anyone who listened to DanV, got burnt. Badly.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: Ibian on April 27, 2014, 08:59:41 PM

Why are people still questioning this? The price goes up in huge jumps. Minor changes between those jumps are meaningless in the bigger picture. For permabears to be taken seriously they would first have to explain why "this time it's different" without appearing to be blatantly trolling. And they can't do that.

Ibian! Hoping and praying since $820!

Quote from: Alley on April 27, 2014, 10:48:00 PM

I think big money is waiting come in. Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

Question is, how low will they make it fall before they start buying?

Siegfried

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Quote from: Arghhh on April 28, 2014, 12:55:33 AM

Quote from: prophetx on April 28, 2014, 12:17:42 AM

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price. big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users. therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Big money is buying all those "worthless" coins off-exchange as to not alert panic-buyers. Second Market is the primest of examples.

Right now, as the price plunges, there is a re-ordering of of BTC distribution and it's going to separate the speculators from the true believers.

A big part of any coin is the security (backed up by hashrate) and network effect. Nothing even comes close to rivaling Bitcoin, at $2000 or $200.

I feel a lot of regret when I realize that I could have doubled my coins by selling high and buying low during this downtrend, but then I remind myself that as I continue to buy more coins each month, I am still moving up the BTC distribution ranking, while most of the people who are selling now will come out of this phase with fewer coins.

Arghhh

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Quote from: prophetx on April 28, 2014, 12:17:42 AM

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price. big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users. therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Big money is buying all those "worthless" coins off-exchange as to not alert panic-buyers. Second Market is the primest of examples. Right now, as the price plunges, there is a re-ordering of of BTC distribution and it's going to separate the speculators from the true believers.

Notice that as BTC takes a hit, all the other altcoins takes an even bigger hit. This is a sign that most of the other altcoins in their current state is used to speculate bitcoin, and therefore at its mercy.

A big part of any coin is the security (backed up by hashrate) and network effect. Nothing even comes close to rivaling Bitcoin, at $2000 or $200.

Siegfried

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Quote from: prophetx on April 28, 2014, 12:17:42 AM

Quote from: Siegfried on April 27, 2014, 11:15:54 PM

Quote from: Alley on April 27, 2014, 10:48:00 PM

I think big money is waiting come in. Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

It could happen at any moment. When we say "big money" what are we talking about? If I were "big money" and I really wanted to get into Bitcoin, I would be worried not so much about whether or not the price goes down more, I be worried about other "big money" getting in before me. Suppose "big money" means a person (or entity) who becomes a true believer in Bitcoin wants to invest 100 million dollars in it. There are thousands of people who could potentially do this. If a total of 100 million dollars enters the Bitcoin market in a short period of time, the price will rise well past 10,000 dollars. Now suppose big money person A comes to believe that big money person B has the same intention. It would be wise for person A to begin buying immediately at price 500 before person B starts buying, rather than wait for the price to maybe fall to 400 and risk person B buying before you. If person B buys before person A, person A will have to buy at 10,000. For a big money person who has decided that Bitcoin is a good investment, the risk of losing the race to another big money person is much greater than buying too soon, before the absolute bottom.

I am sure that big money people are already acquiring Bitcoin, but they are doing it off-exchange as much as possible and on-exchange in smaller amounts, but the time is fast approaching when this big money acquisition will no longer be unnoticed, and a stampede will occur.

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price. big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users. therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Bitcoin already is "actual" innovation, the most significant financial innovation in decades. It already is drawing in more users daily and it is obviously not worthless.

The people who are investing in Bitcoin services have completely different goals from big money people who would want to own Bitcoin itself. Being an owner of Coinbase or Bitpay would not allow someone to securely store or instantly transfer 100 million dollars of value anywhere in the world.

The only part of your argument that is not a complete failure is the possibility that a better version of Bitcoin will come along, although your choice of Dogecoin as an example was poor. I admit that is a possibility, but it is more than likely that Bitcoin will adopt any significant improvements (because it is open source and incredibly smart people are working on it) in order to stay on top.

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: Siegfried on April 27, 2014, 11:15:54 PM

Quote from: Alley on April 27, 2014, 10:48:00 PM

I think big money is waiting come in. Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

It could happen at any moment. When we say "big money" what are we talking about? If I were "big money" and I really wanted to get into Bitcoin, I would be worried not so much about whether or not the price goes down more, I be worried about other "big money" getting in before me. Suppose "big money" means a person (or entity) who becomes a true believer in Bitcoin wants to invest 100 million dollars in it. There are thousands of people who could potentially do this. If a total of 100 million dollars enters the Bitcoin market in a short period of time, the price will rise well past 10,000 dollars. Now suppose big money person A comes to believe that big money person B has the same intention. It would be wise for person A to begin buying immediately at price 500 before person B starts buying, rather than wait for the price to maybe fall to 400 and risk person B buying before you. If person B buys before person A, person A will have to buy at 10,000. For a big money person who has decided that Bitcoin is a good investment, the risk of losing the race to another big money person is much greater than buying too soon, before the absolute bottom.

I am sure that big money people are already acquiring Bitcoin, but they are doing it off-exchange as much as possible and on-exchange in smaller amounts, but the time is fast approaching when this big money acquisition will no longer be unnoticed, and a stampede will occur.

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price. big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users. therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

GigaCoin

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Giga

Bitcoin Is starting to remind me of Gold's and Silver's demise, very similar scenario as the price kept going up but never enough causing it to die slowly

kooke

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Bitcoin super-duper-mega-ultra-hyper-node

Quote from: Ibian on April 27, 2014, 11:05:16 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin BEAR on April 27, 2014, 10:51:46 PM

I don't get why it MUST be binary. Why is there no middle ground?

If worldwide adoption occurs, then I agree that 6 digits is a safe bet. But then I ask, why should Bitcoin be valued at it's maximum potential right now, when it has not yet reached it's maximum potential? The true value should rise with real use and not just speculative demand, but that real use is, compared to trade volume, minuscule at the moment.

It's too useful to remain some obscure nerd-token. Just like email and looking up cooking recipes on the internet. People are slow to adopt, but they will eventually simply for their own selfish benefit. Same as any other technology.

The True Value, as meaningless as that term is, is whatever its ultimate potential is. Which is much higher than here.

And just to clarify, by worldwide adoption I don't mean that 100% of the economy happens in bitcoin. Just that it is known to everyone and that however many people have a reason to use it, use it (whether they know it or not at the present time of writing). My (conservative, as always) estimate for that is that 10% of the world population commonly use it. Could likely go much higher, but no reason to be overly bullish.

You can't really compare btc with email. People weren't really slow in adopting email, and there's not really much risk using email for the average person. Investing in btc on the other hand, is quite risky.

Topic: Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis (Read 4341 times)