dear k9quaint,
Your argument about "selection bias" makes no sense. Yes my selected example shows, some EXTREMELY unlucky pool. I have specifically chosen the most "unlucky" pool to illustrate my point. However, you completely failing to treat this in context of my OP.
The odds of finding outcome in a dataset is different than that outcome occurring in a single monte carlo run. You need to calculate what the odds were of finding a pool with luck that bad, not what the odds were that a specific pool would experience that luck in the future. One is more likely than the other, and misrepresenting the data in this fashion doesn't do anyone any favors.
My post was not about some theoretizing about hell knows what. It was about choosing a pool to mine with or not to mine with. BTC guild was a perfect example of a pool to not touch with barge pole on "bad luck" criteria. No more no less.
If one were to go back to June 1st and then decide a pool to mine in, you would be absolutely correct. Going forward, what sort of prediction would you make about the performance of BTCguild? I went and asked the pool operator about events that had an outsized effect on performance that were unlikely to recur. There were 3 and they were very visible in the data set. (DDos July 4th-7th, DDoS Aug 12th, a bad pushpoold patch from June 29th - July 2nd). Also, you didn't treat the invalid blocks correctly in your data set, but that is another conversation.
Are you trying to tell us here that btcguild's historical performance is ok and miners should go now and mine with them. Do you yourself mine with btcguild?
The historical performance is definitely subpar. However, after dropping those 3 periods the picture changes quite a bit. I do mine with them currently, although I didn't point any significant hashing power at them until August, after the dust had settled from the DDoS and patch issue.
As for the reference with chart you gave me as your argument meaning "other pools are unlucky too" . That chart has at best 20 days of data and statistically is not so significant as my 3 month dataset and therefore is dismissed.
You are going to throw out 20 days worth of data that demonstrates a clear trend in 4 pools (including the one your are discussing now)? When I come back in 10 days with 30 days worth of data, will you dismiss that as well? You were not even curious as to why 4 pools were clearly below trend and the other 2 were flat?
I do not see what point you are trying to make in this thread. It looks like you are nitpicking trying to come up with some criticism , if so than you are miserably failing at it. Please tell us what is your point if you reply.
First point:: I believe you calculated the odds incorrectly regarding finding a set of bad luck in the search space of pools
Second point: I believe you treated the invalid blocks found incorrectly in your data set
Third point: I believe you represented past data that contained extreme and discontinuous events as historical norms. If you going looking for a problem in the past and show how the performance deviated from expected as a result of those problems, that is fine. You shouldn't represent that search as the result of a true Monte Carlo run to be expected in future performance.
Fourth point: I believe you are dismissing data that disagrees with you because it is not "as significant". Your response should have been: "Oh, that
is interesting, I wonder why that is." I wonder why those pools are under-performing and I believe that someone who claims to be providing a defense course for pool-shopping should wonder as well.
You are very right about one thing, with hindsight we should have absolutely avoided BTCGuild on 7 out of the last 60 days. I am trying to keep this discussion collegial and courteous, I am not trying to pick gnat scat out of pepper to just to troll you